How Do The 5% Of Retail Traders Make Money?

For guys learning the market ETF’s are a good source, there are quite a few including currency ETF’s, one of the values is that volume can be included.

Anyways, XLE is an energy ETF so you have to include Nat Gas and the seasonal aspect of same (warmer weather effect on demand etc)

One source that is good:

http://www.sectorspdr.com/sectorspdr/tools/sector-tracker

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You know what they say about Apples and Pears , they are both fruits

Here is another Apples and Pears for you

Think of the market, any market like a Blackjack table, now the retail trader will sit at that blackjack table where he has no edge and play until his money is gone, while the Professional Blackjack Player ( card counter) will wait until he has a clear edge over the table then put down the big bucks and walk away as soon as his edge is gone.

the average retail trader simply does not know when to enter and exit the market and that is why 95% will lose

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For guys learning the market ETF’s are a good source, there are quite a few including currency ETF’s, one of the values is that volume can be included.

Yes, you are 100% correct. I havent traded spot FX for many years. I trade through ETFs, futures and options markets. These markets are very liquid, have nice 2 sided action and tight spreads.

I sometimes trade USO or oil futures for a strict oil play, but in this specific case I am trading XLE because it has a 0.6 correlation to the SP500. I am currently bullish on the US indicies so its a way for me to get long both energy and US indices. And that is the great thing about trading a wider range of products, there is almost an unlimited ammount of strategy a trader can build, and much easier to create a balanced portfolio.

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Think of the market, any market like a Blackjack table, now the retail trader will sit at that blackjack table where he has no edge and play until his money is gone, while the Professional Blackjack Player ( card counter) will wait until he has a clear edge over the table then put down the big bucks and walk away as soon as his edge is gone.

the average retail trader simply does not know when to enter and exit the market and that is why 95% will lose

This is a great analogy. Reminds me of traders who want to be in a trade just to be trading, rather than waiting for those small moments where a high probability setup presents itself. Trading just to be in the market is an account killer. Most of the time the position to be in isnt long or short, it’s none at all.

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I am curious to know the previous title (if you are interested). Thanks in advance.

Aye, the other thing about ETF’s is that in John Murphy’s thinking they give you an insight into risk sentiment.

Can be taken over to FX, e.g. look at the last 5 days - Utilities (XLU) real estate (XLRE), XLY etc are the risers on the S&P - these are the safe bets - risk is off, play it safe.

So before looking at USD/JPY for the same period …

Hmmm… there are learners, JPY is the currency that investors buy when in safe mode, lots of reasons that can be open for argument but that is the way the market reacts.

So USD down, JPY up for this past week:

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Much obliged sir. This one goes straight into my quote folder, and I can assure you David Wolfe is not represented in there.

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It’s still apples and pears - if you believe there are similarities between both commercial and retail, well then I’m speechless.

At least with your attempt of an analogy both the retail blackjack player and the professional were sat at the same table - we’re not sat at the same table in ‘trading’ - we’re not even both interacting with the market. Let’s wake up a little.

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Come on over to the dark side my friend. We all float down here.

Agree totally. We are that mug that walks up behind the table betting whether or not the player wins or loses.

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Come on over to the dark side my friend. We all float down here.

Good luck and godspeed! Haha. I had my fill of the very honest and wonderful FX brokers (heavy sarcasm here). I just have absolutely no love for them anymore. I found my happy place with the more traditional brokers like TD Ameritrade and TastyWorks(the same people who made Think or Swim). If I want to trade spot I can just use futures. 1 futures contract = 1 lot and there is almost always a 1 pip spread in all pairs. Add in the flexibility of options and equities and there is no way I will ever go back. :sunglasses:

Great bit of advice im still on my 1st year of trading and i knew from the get go id be lucky to finish the year flat even but that is my goal for my first year stratagy development and educating me self better with charts over 4months and bearly loost 10% and most of that was month 1 getting better every day

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The suggestion that spot forex and futures is the same is very far fetched. But even more so the suggestion that spot forex can be traded in the same manner as ETF, options, stocks or futures is just unforgivable.

The suggestion that spot forex and futures is the same is very far fetched. But even more so the suggestion that spot forex can be traded in the same manner as ETF, options, stocks or futures is just unforgivable.

Settle down there cheif, i never said futures and spot are the same. I said that if i want to trade spot then i use futures. Thats not a difficult sentence to understand to your average person that isnt a troll.

Go take your faux outrage somewhere else. As I said to you before, if you are as good of a trader as you are at being a forum troll then you are probably very profitable. What is this, like your 10th account since your other 9 have been banned?

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No one is trolling you. No one is attacking you. No one is creating multiple accounts. It’s all in your head. .

But what you are in effect telling us is that if we want success stop speculating on the spot market and trade futures, stocks, EFT or options. Thats not what this site is about nor this thread. Just because you didn’t enjoy success in this market doesn’t mean the rest of us cant either.

Leave the commentary on the spot market to those that speculate in it. Identifying potential trade set-ups is only part of the game. You need to talk position size. Entry points. Trade management. Exit in profit point. Exit with loss point. System research and development. Post trade analysis

It’s just not the same game.

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All anyone has to do is read your forum history to see your sad 3 week existence here on babypips. Clints post sums you up pretty well Where do the trolls go

To be fair, @aRealityCheck, I don’t think that @krugman25 was saying that one cannot succeed in spot market (as in retail FX through a broker) . As I read it, he was being critical about the broker jungle itself:

I can think of nothing more destructive than working hard to build up a successful trading account only to find your broker then fails to pay out or disappears - but then I have always been amazed how and why people end up with some of these dubious companies in the first place. Why not at least always try to pick large, well-regulated and familiar names in the industry (Even that does not guarantee no problems but there is a better chance of avoiding such damage)… But broker issues don’t really belong on this thread, there are surely more than enough other threads here for that purpose! :slight_smile:

The aim here is to try and identify and share some of the main techniques, principles and practices, etc that have helped those of us that have survived the early days and reached a stable state of consistent profitability…hints that may be of practical help to those in their early trading stages. I am sure many of these issues are relevant whatever market we are trading.

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To be fair, @aRealityCheck, I don’t think that @krugman25 was saying that one cannot succeed in spot market (as in retail FX through a broker) . As I read it, he was being critical about the broker jungle itself:

Exactly right manxx, spot Forex is a fine market to trade in. Sure a future is different under-the-hood but to the part that matters to a trader, making money on price movement, I get the same 10$ per pip exposure I would get from a standard lot in spot FX. Since I trade multiple vehicles and markets it makes sense for me to have 1 broker where I can do it all rather than 2 or more.

I dont want to call out any brokers by name, but I will just say I had used a very large FX broker in the US that no longer does business here. Enough said there.

The aim here is to try and identify and share some of the main techniques, principles and practices, etc that have helped those of us that have survived the early days and reached a stable state of consistent profitability…hints that may be of practical help to those in their early trading stages. I am sure many of these issues are relevant whatever market we are trading.

I fully agree. I have the #7 most viewed thread on BP trading systems forum with close to 700,000 views, where I meticulously laid out how I trade the market. Nothing has changed in the 6 years since I made that thread, I still trade the exact same way and still am posting commentary on potential setups and teaching price action/pattern trading.

Unfortunetly if you use the word “price action” or share trade ideas outside of BP the pitchforks come out. It’s one of those things you cant win for losing, if you share very detailed trade setups then you get blamed for selling signals or pandering a system and if you post trade analysis but dont provide specific entry/exit details then you are being too vague and must not be a successful trader. Its almost laughable.

I figured out a long time ago that you cant please everyone. So just put it out there the way you see it and anyone that is interested will naturally join the conversation and add value.

Wow, you lot are off chops as we say in my land.

Now, I can’t say I disagree with anything @aRealityCheck has said. Yet you all seem hell bent to discredit him/her all because a) he/she is new, and b) he/she questioned the motivation of one member. A member I would dearly love to question. But alias, I’m no angel. I’ve just served a 2 week suspension for having a bad attitude. So to express my views will surely see me banned. However it’s taken a suspension to see how badly you lot defend your turf and misplace your trust. My advice to old mate and any new member coming aboard - run, run for the hills.

Now, back on subject. What else do we do that sets us apart. We filter. Like the !@##$ in this thread we have to filter out the noise in the market. My main filter is just to trade no other instrument other than the EURUSD. We know this from my thread. And its a legitimate filter. Specializing in just one instrument is a valid and successful methodology. However promoting this style is not very popular with the educators. Nor would I advocate it for long term success. However, there are three threads here I would advocate




The common theme amongst all of them. A filter methodology to select a high probability instrument.

Just to follow through more, I made it no secret that I’ve always long to trade more instruments in my own thread. I first started experimenting with strength anaylsis here

Two years on it now looks like this

and this

yet still based on the same algo

I practice what I preach. I will do tomorrow, what I did today because it worked yesterday. I will work harder than the next guy. And I will think for myself.

Only I got better - a whole lot better

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Well that certainly was not my intention, but if you say so then ok I accept your criticism. Sorry to have interfered, I won’t do that again. Just a pity what a pathetic example to Newbies this thread of supposed successful traders is presenting!!! :slight_smile:

I’ll happily leave you all to your in-fighting whilst, in the meantime, I just collected my 100 pips on EU today. So I really don’t care anymore about personality happenings and ego trips here, @_bob, I just trade…