How do you determine the right trend?

Except for some common tactics, some different tactics are also followed by different traders. So, what are yours?

There is no “right” trend. There are a lot of overlapping trends on different timeframes. They are all real and if they are right enough for you to enter depends on your expectation when you hit the button.

I can sell an uptrend on the 1m - 15m if price hits a major resistance from a downtrend on a higher timeframe. Thats against the uptrend on this particular day. But I could have bought me in the uptrend too. My expectation on the first trade would be that it maybe needs a bit of room, but possibly could go far. My expectation on the second trade would be for it to rise somewhere near the resistance without much drawdown.

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Mine’s pretty basic. :open_mouth: I just use moving averages primarily cause I don’t want to complicate it too much. Recently, I’m also trying to build the habit of checking multiple time frames to confirm trends and identify good entry positions. :blush:

For price action traders, simple - draw your lines.
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My setup involves a 20 EMA using both 5 minute and 30 minute time frames. No other indicators.

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Those time frames are a bit too intense for me. :sweat_smile: Haha. But how has it been going so far? :smiley:

Check the weekly, then the daily, then the 4h and then the 1hr. That’s kind of my process.

I think some traders look at the 200 MA on a higher time frame. Above, UP trend, below, DOWN trend.

“Right trend” depends on your trade.

I adopted these time frames based on Alex Elder order of magnitude. I have had relatively good results the months I tested it but flamingo pointed out that the amount of trades are not statistically significant. I am going to start testing the strategy in November and so on.

I look on biger time frame to check out what trend market currently is in and acording to that i try on trading on 2 time frames smaller

I use correlation to determine which trend should I follow.

The prevailing orderflow of the currencies through their strength and weakness.

@Celyse - I’ve seen the answers below but I don’t know how useful they will be because I cannot understand your question.

If you had a perfect answer to your question, what would “the right trend” look like to you?
What do you intend to do when you see it?

I trade on the daily timeframe and I check monthly and weekly to see the trend of the market. I look for obvious trends (up-down-range). If I can’t clearly identify it, I change market. I look at 4h to set entry point.

This is a classic approach which a very large proportion of traders must be following. But I suspect most are doing so without clear evidence or protocols, such as how to define a trend, so they then make a decision based on the last 10 days of price action anyway.

What do you do when you find that the monthly charts have been moving sideways for the last 24 months, the weekly chart has been in a downtrend for 23 weeks and the daily chart is in an uptrend since 17 days back?

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S and R from monthly chart
23weeks downtrend weekly = 115 candle on daily, which the last 17 showed an uptrend

Depends where the current price is.

But I’ll consider short trading (downtrend market) keeping in mind the strong Support from the monthly I am approaching.

Newbie thinking
Different point of view, feedbacks are welcome

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I think it’s easier than it looks at first glance.

It should be noted that we are talking about a trend, not a specific price movement. Because within general trend price can move in a zigzag manner.

So, trend is determined by several timeframes. The most accurate is to start with one of maximum timeframes. For example 1W.
Then gradually reduce to working timeframe. For example, 1H.
And while switching between timeframes, you will understand direction of general trend.

I read that some traders do this almost every morning. It helps to always see general situation in the markets.

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Quite simple. When in doubt, zoom out!

Put more eloquently, when you are definietly not so sure about the right overall trend, try to look at the asset from a broader time horizon. Now, assets may go one direction for a certain amount of time whilst not breaking the overall trend. You just gotta know what sort of a market the underlying asset is it. If it is a bear market, or a bull market, or going sideways, that’s how you put together your overall trading plan.

One helpful tool is the “Trend Analysis” tool on MarketMilk.

For example, here’s the trend analysis for USD/JPY.

It’s bearish to neutral.