Economy is our bread and butter. Out of curiousity. What do each of you think about your economy? How have things changed and what is your outlook on the future? Here goes.
Prices are going up like crazy here in the US. Less than 10 years ago gas was 1 dollar per gallon now it’s 4. Very recently food prices have been going up like crazy. For the first time in my life time stores are rationing certain kinds of food. I’ve been asking some of the oldtimers and no one that didn’t live during the depression remembers that ever happening. Ammo prices are pissing me off. In just 6 months time they’ve nearly doubled. Fishing on the washington coast has been delayed a month due to the slow down in the restaurant business. Consumer dept is now $80,000 per household here in america. Our governement has a current deficit of 9.4+ trillion! It was 5.7 trillion when President Bush took office. Don’t even get me started on what I think of bush. I can name over 10 people that I know personally that have lost or are losing their homes because they can’t make the payments. One of the latest crazes here is investing. Everyone and their dog is investing in the stock market etc but they know NOTHING at all about their investments. As an example, my Dad, a few brothers, and a bunch of cousins recently invested in a drug company. Some guy did a seminar about how this drug will cure ms and that the Osmans(famous singers) were heavily invested in it and that it had cured one of them. Based on this they all invested in this company. Not a single one of them have any experience in the market and probly don’t even know what an annual report is. That I know of each has put 40+k into this. Now that they’ve lost a bunch, they’re showing all the signs of what we go through as traders. All the facts are thrown out and they’re going on emotion now. If you ask how their investment is doing they can’t give any facts that it will turn around, just that they feel it will. My inlaws are getting fleeced in their 401ks. Bottom line, americans are really taking a beating financially atm, not that some of us don’t deserve it.
As for the future this is what I think. Our dept is too much to pay back. Our economy is propped up by this debt we can’t pay back. When our creditors decide to collect or that we are too high of a risk to loan to. We’re fubar’ed. Major recession or depression. As to when this will happen, who knows. But it wouldn’t supprise me if it was soon. When that happens imo the dollar will see hyper inflation akin to that in germany and agentina where the currencies were completely destroyed. Enter the amero and the nau.
Cheers,
Randon
P.S. Sorry to be so doom and gloom. It’s just how I see things. Feel free to disagree, but give your out look on your economy too pls.
Long post, I’m proud of myself to have read all of it lol
About the prices, yes they’re high. They go up every year for college, while the amount of federal aid available every year goes down 
Randont…you have good facts about the USA’s falling on hard times lately(Past 4 years) …i don’t agree with the collapse of this economy…you have to undertand we still are the super power…forget all that crap you hear about
CHINA and INDIA…those countries are growing at a super rate— but they are growing with no regards to THERE people, the environment etc…to say they are going to somehow take over the world is ABSURD…you think we are polluting the world?..take a look at some facts in china…too many to lists…
Yes the REPUBLICANS screwed the pooch…that is a given…unfortunetly…we couldn’t sit around why people are crashing planes into our buildings…we should of used a SHARPSHOOTER but we went full barrel with a SHOTGUN effect and now we are in a Mess in the middle east…with wars, OIL etc…
We are still TOO VITLE to the WORLD economy…forget what you hear on CNN…if we go down in a DEPRESSION, believe me the world will be in CAOS!
and nobody wants that…so the debters won’t be knockin on our doors
anytime soon…WE STILL ARE THE DOMINATE COUNTRY, Sit back …trade forex, the tide is going to shift my friend prediction 2years…the dollar will be rolling again…so get ready, EVERYTHING corrects itself, WEATHER, ECONOMY.ETC, we are in a 10 year cycle right now…look at your history…In closing i just HOPE the Democrats don’t forget about the nutjobs still out there
Thank you for the reply. I sincerely hope you are right. Maybe I’ve just been listening to too many of these doomsdayers. One things for sure though. No one knows whats going to happen.
You may hear alot about the commodity buble busting, and there are many reasons why it might. The prices are getting to a point were the market can no longer support them. And I hear everyone saying that those BAD traders are out there driving up the price of oil. Well those same traders can short it just as easily as longing it. As soon as they see signs of waining government subsidation (in other countries besides the US) and falling demand, there will be people shorting Oil and Gold.
What happens if oil and gold fall? Well the US Dollar will rise. If commodities crash the USD will skyrocket. Think we cant go back to $33.00 a barrel oil? Well thats the same thing people said when it was at $40 in the 70’s then dropped back to $10.00. 1/4 of 135 is around 33 dollars a barrel. Im not saying it will fall that far, no one can know. But watch the commodities, for every step back they take the USD will take a step foward.
China will just grow at a rate that they are too good to be cheap labor anymore. When that happens, who will be the world’s cheap labor? Vietnam is now starting to be outsourced by China. It won’t take long for capitalist nations to just bypass China and go directly to Vietnam. Then money will flow out of China and they will bust. Their government can only help subsidize the drive so long. They are already stopping the aid of their boom. So the cycle will start all over again in Vietnam. If the U.S ever gets that low, maybe we will become the world’s cheap labor and maybe some factory jobs will finally come back and help us boom again.
This is all just a normal economic cycle (that our present political party helped give a big boost to the down side).
Psst… If you still own China stocks, it is time to sell you greedy fool.
My prediction - Democrats will get in office…raise taxes here…offer a peace flower to everyone who hates us thus leaving the BACK door open for people to **** on us again…screwing our ecomoy…thats one scenio.
or the whole world loves us and we live happily ever after
Do you realise that when Bill left office there was a surplus and Bush sqandered it. Bill’s deficit was 5.7 trillion with a budget surplus, Bush’s deficit is 9.4 trillion and rising with no budget surplus. You do the math. Heres a link to what the Tax cuts did. Bush: ‘Our Long National Nightmare Of Peace And Prosperity Is Finally Over’ | The Onion - America’s Finest News Source
It pays to be rich under Bush’s administration.
I think everyone has a negative connotation on their own economy, but everyone can agree that the US economy is basically going down the drain these days.
Here in Canada things seem alright, with us clearing parity with the US dollar… I think we were up to $1.20 at one point. I wish I was into forex back then, that would have been such easy money because we all saw it coming from a mile away, it was on the news pretty much every night.
I think there is a bit of a sentiment that the US is screwing Canada around and I don’t know how much longer we will stand for it. Softwood lumber is probably the biggest scandal that the Canadian government was too chicken **** to do anything about, but also beef, oil, and other commodities.
Personally I thought Ron Paul was the last hope America had to get back on it’s feet, but since the media has all-but silenced him and over 50% of the general population is incompetant, it’s pretty much Game Over. Neither McCain nor Clinton nor Obama have the ability to clean any of this mess up. I’ll give them until John McCain is officially the Republican Nominee, then I have officially lost all hope and I will be withdrawing all of my US investments and immediately converting all my money back into CAD. Sorry, it’s business not personal :D.
YARCOFIN…being from Cananda and all you obviously don’t understand how the USA works…Election years are always a nightmare…I ll admit the BUSH Administration screwed the pooched and i see a demorcatic president…which that alone will turn the economy around in 2009, plus commodities can not sustain these highs…there will be a commodity Bubble burst and like every decade before this one it will correct… The dollar will rise again!..if it doesn’t then you better dig a hole and hide in it…because the whole world will crap out without the dollar…get your money ready, 2009 will shine:)
YES!!! mytwopips will be a hundredaire in 09!!!
Randont, best idea for a topic I’ve heard in a while.
2 things. I saw George Soros the other day (not a personal friend unfortunately, he was giving a speech in London) and his take was recessions all round for US, UK and Eurozone, but the question was one of degree - somewhere in between 2 years at best, and 10 years - Japan-style at worst. Hmmm.
Here in the UK things are looking precarious too, and the pound is taking a beating all round from every currency. Gordon Brown reckoned he’d put an end to boom and bust, but it appears he was just saving it all up for a sack of sh*t for us all further down the line. Similar to the US, we’ve managed to increase deficits hugely during the economic upturn, leaving us no room to move now we’re struggling. House prices are falling steadily since the new year and the economic sentiment is fairly consistently pessimistic.
My view is that US will lead the recession, followed by the UK, followed by the rest of Europe - there’s a lagging effect at play here.
As for China eventually becoming the next superpower - I don’t doubt it.
If I start in on discussion my perception of the US economy, I’ll never stop. So instead, a couple of things to contribute:
Some of you may have heard of Paul van Eeden - I came across him on Kitco a number of years back and have followed his commentary since. Recently he wrote an article called “Sue OPEC”, for which he’s been interviewed on CNBC and a few other shows, I think. Anyway, if you haven’t read it, it is highly worthwhile:
Paul Van Eeden - Sue OPEC
Also, an outstanding site that will certainly benefit one’s perception of the US economy, whatever their present ideas:
Shadow Government Statistics � Home Page
That Paul Van Eeden article is top notch
Discussing the state of the economy is a very broad topic but, to simplify the topic, I condense it down to one factor - debt.
If an individual has too much debt, they die financially.
If a business has too much debt, they die financially.
If a nation has too much debt, they die financially.
If the global community has too much debt, we’re all screwed.
The debt levels that we see today are not sustainable and barely serviceable. We are in for some serious “corrections” both in the US and around the world.
A wise man once said, “the currencies of the world are like ships on the ocean and they are all sinking. Some are just sinking faster than others.”
Part of our task as currency traders is to determine which ones are sinking the fastest and get off that ship. I feel that the USD bear is not nearly over and will actually gain momentum. That’s why I’m VERY careful if I ever take a position buying the USD.
Pips Ahoy, you must be a boater … love the screen name and thought about using it myself as we are boaters.
We have a lot of marinas here on the west coast of BC and judging from that, we must be doing pretty good. Another familiar quote says something like “A boat is a hole in the water into which you sink money”. I don’t know where people get all their money to pay for the moorage, insurance and now GAS on top of their everyday expenses! Then there’s all the maintenance & repairs and that’s not cheap…we know cause my hubby’s a marine repairs mechanic!
Also here in BC there’s not enough people for the jobs available in some sectors which is both good & bad. The bad part is some businesses have to close because they cant keep up to demand, or the people they hire may be less skilled for the job.
They say there are more millionaires now than ever before…but with “everything” going up in both wages and expenses we’ll all be millionaires one day…only it will cost a few hundred to eat at McDonalds…that part amused my kids :D…however, it’s all relative 
At least in forex if a currency(ship) is sinking…you can sell it and still make money!