I want to discuss here the events that are near and their impact. What do you define big, and how much a news moves the market.
Robbie, this comes with experience and changes over time. Currently little other than interest rates is predictably moving the markets unless you move to the announcements from canada, aus and NZ. For instance the trade balances tonight are unlikely to move the market much as no one has been interested in them for months given the prevalence of the subprime issues, carry trades and Northern Rock. I would suggest you start to read regularly someone like Kathy Lien on FXCM and get a feel for the market and what is hot and start to keep a record of differences from expected announcements and the relative move you get. I am appending my example of retails x autos due out tomorrow night
US Retail Sales.zip (11.8 KB)
ty very much tony, will help !
I normally do not trade the news, and do not even watch markets during news. But I trade the jobs report from US every month. Actually trading news can be profitable, but also can be very tricky. This is obvious when good news come for the greenback and it goes down…and vice versa.
Well, a market moving event is not so often, as news are already placed in markets unless a surprise hits the wires.
How do I trade the news? Easy, I don’t… At least not intentionally. If I have an order that’s live when I know “big” (NFP, interest rate decisions, etc) prints are coming up, I’ll look to get out before they come into play. Occasionally I do get caught out by some news that didn’t hit my radar, and that’s where trade management comes into play. Are your SL and TP numbers in? Can you handle the psychological roller coaster that is most press releases?
Good example of getting caught out by news: Last night the press release from the EZ meeting saying “we have a deal on Greece” and then 10 minutes later Lagarde and Juncker coming out and saying “uhhhh, no we don’t, we still have work to do.” Totally didn’t see that coming. I knew that a press release was coming, but I didn’t expect confusion. It worked in my favor though.
I do agree with TopChess however. A huge percent of news events are “already priced into the market” before they happen. That’s mostly a function of projections and predictions by analysts. As always with analysts, take their opinions with a grain of salt, unless you’re extremely clear on exactly what their personal agenda is. The only time markets react to news is when the analysts get it wrong, or there’s a huge deviation from the ‘consensus’.
Edit: … Holy necro-post Batman! Sorry guys, I didn’t realize this thread was 5 years old… It came up in the “related posts” thing and I forgot to check the post time… facepalm
Your post seems to be helpful anyway so thank you for sharing your experience
Ah, the magic of lazarus…LOL
On the news front, it comes with experience…usually, most of the top fx news agencies like bloomberg do provide news impact analysis…worth looking them up