how do i start a poll[poll type=multiple results=always min=1 max=2 public=false chartType=bar]
- 3months
- 6months
- 1year
- 2years
- 5years
- 10years
- 20years
- 50years
[/poll]
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Interesting question. I think it varies hugely.
The starting-point for discussing it should perhaps be the (“obvious”?) perspective that if by “working trading system” you mean one that has both safety, low drawdowns, a reasonable trade-frequency and a genuine edge, then the proportion of people who ever achieve that at all is really very, very tiny.
But unquestionably some do.
For the tiny minority who do so, I think it almost always takes years, not months.
It will be faster and easier, overall, for those with a high level of mathematical, statistical and probabilistic education. Exactly the ones so many investment banks and hedge funds are willing to interview for their graduate entry training programs. And for good, well researched, well established and well proved reasons.
I think it might also possibly include very experienced, pro poker players, too.
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The question is not “How long?”, it’s “Why?”
i.e. Why would anyone think they should do this?
Or, why would anyone think it was possible they could do this?
some people say 2years but some say 20, so which one is it. some people go all in on a memecoin and suddenly become a rich influencer with no real skill, which is fine, whatever it takes to get rich. the issue is when they pretend they got rich by daytrading.
so is it 2 or 20years?
Another important question is:
When it takes longer than expected, what are you gonna do?
True. This might be a good question if you wanted to start another poll.
Meantime you might see some intersting answers and useful information if you set out what’s behind your question in the orginal post. One hand washes the other.
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It must vary +++ ?
I think the average number must be much more than 20, when you include the very big majority who never get there at all?
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I think the OP was probably asking what would be a fair average among the very few people who do actually achieve it? (Otherwise it’s maybe kind of unanswerable, as you rightly imply?).
For the few people who ever manage it, it’s probably a better solution than expecting to be able to make steady, long-term profits by copying an existing one that just “works” in and of itself, isn’t it?
If you could just do that, so could enough other people to take most of its edge away, don’t you think, @tommor ?
I’m not really quite convinced either way, actually, and genuinely asking what you think, not trying to make some abstruse rhetorical point, here!
My guess is many years, anyway, not many months.
Unless maybe you’re starting with a Master’s degree in math/statistics, as @Jadzia.Daxtrader mentioned. Or unless you’re a Trill or a Vulcan rather than, say, a Klingon?
Don’t look now, but the OP’s been removed from the field of action, anyway. That doesn’t make his question invalid or not-worth-discussing, though?
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I just find it very hard to believe that a new trader can think up a strategy which is not just a variant of what’s out there already. They cannot be expected to bring more knowledge and better abilities to find solutions than the industry has already.
Plus, most people trying to develop a new strategy will probably look at and test existing strategies along the way. So they will have absorbed current methods en route. Hard to think they can have developed their own strategy which is so good it justifies abandoning these
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It took me ten years, from 2005 to 2015, during which time I worked as an over-the-road truck driver, eventually becoming an owner-operator; this contributed to the drawn-out process.
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Is there a moment when you realize, “This isn’t working; I should explore other options”? 50yrs is a long time
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Sometimes there’s time deducted for good behavior but sometimes sentences are prolonged for further offenses? 
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If it takes years, they won’t be all that new by the time they manage it? 
I think we’re not excluding“variants of what’s out there already?”
Abilities, possibly? I’m not so convinced. How long did it take Walter Bessert to invent his indicator, which was good enough to be taken up and used on an investment bank trading floor?
Yes, true - good point.
It doesn’t necessarily mean abandoning them? It could just be amending them and/or building on them, maybe?
In one place I worked, long ago, a guy in his early 20’s, who was doing his first post-university job and had been there only about a year, invented something “new and different” (ish) which was taken very seriously and successfully used.
Such instances are obviously exceptions to the norm, and he was more or less in the “potentially gifted” group referred to by @Jadzia.Daxtrader , above, I grant you.
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In the past I think I remember posting that a simple profitable strategy available in a published textbook could be in operation by a complete novice within 8 days.
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Interesting discussion!
For me, that raises the questions of what proportion of the “simple, profitable” strategies published in books really are profitable, and how the complete novice would reliably identify which ones they are?
The first clue is that it’s in a published textbook, so it’s been carefully vetted by a publisher, also making available the histories of author, contributors, editors, testimonial writers etc.
So, almost anything in books by Alan Farley, Linda Raschke, Al Brooks, Marc Rivalland and a few score others.
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You’re differentiating between traditionally published textbooks and PDFs from vendor websites and Youtube channel marketers, then.
Point well taken, thanks.
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Developing your own strategy that’s tailored to you is worth the time spent only after you complete it, because if you fail to make a working system you’ve wasted a lot of time that you’ll never get back.
It’s not quite like putting together a jigsaw puzzle where you can see what the end result will be from the box cover.
Before your system is finished you really don’t know what you’ll end up with and you’re hoping that what you’re building will actually work.
Going at it with zero knowledge would be like a blind person trying to solve a Rubik’s cube.
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