Hi guuuys! I’m trying to really get back into more actively trading. Although I’m really an EMA crossover system girl, I’ve been trying tweaks in the settings of my EMAs and even the timeframe that I watch (1H, 4H, 1D). I just wonder, when trying out strategies, do you have an average number of winnings required for you to decide that this is the system you want to use? Thank youuuu!

If the win rate is higher than 50 and most of the days are winning days, it should be a good strategy.

I want the Profit Factor to be 1.5 or more, over 200+ trades. Simple rule.

This is a pretty solid answer tbh. If your win ratio is higher than your loss, than you are winning.

Trend trading is all you need as a strategy. I use Ichimoku Kinko Hyo 8-22-44 for FX currency pairs for a 5 day set up using a weekly chart with the 4hr as a similar price action movement confirmation chart.

Upside is a 50+ positive probability win rate and a Downside is ranging markets with fewer trend trades available.

Sorry, but this is totally mistaken. Win-rate alone doesn’t disclose whether a method is winning or losing.

There are methods with 70% win-rates that lose, and methods with 30% win-rates that win.

What determines whether it’s profitable overall is your EXPECTANCY (which depends on both win-rate and ‘R’).

Anything 60/40 for least is definitely better.

there is not a number of trade but rather a period of time. I guess you should keep track of your trade for at least 2 weeks and after this if your wins are bigger and more than your looses, that strategy is a fine-to-go with.

The number of trades is enormously important, too, otherwise there won’t be statistical significance.

2 weeks?! I hope you’re joking?!

The misinformation in this thread is absolutely overwhelming, even by BP standards!

**ALL** the statements I’ve just quoted above are completely wrong and hugely misguided. Sorry to sound so argumentative, but someone needs to correct the screaming misinformation here, and the thread’s just full of nonsense.

You’re right, obviously, but I’ve noticed that this is what seems always to happen here, when even the most basic-level familiarity with statistics or probability is needed to understand something.

Trading is inherently full of such issues, though, and that won’t be changing, either.

I know it’s a beginners’ forum, but there’s a real limit on how helpful it can be to have beginners advising other beginners.

It’s just not possible to be categoric about a number. It all depends on the strategy. Everything depends on the strategy.

For me, I look for a strategy’s trade set-up conditions to run through several entire set-up cycles, from best to average to worst, and back again again at least. For example if taking trend-following trades, I obviously want to see how the strategy perfoms in a steady consistent long-duration trend, but also what happens when the trend evolves into a range and then a short trend and then another range and then a dramatic break-out into a new trend and then an over-night reversal nto the opposite trend. All these situations are easily imaginable so there’s no excuse for me not trialling through them. They will all happen.

This might amount to 53 trades, or it might be 153 or it might be 253 or 353, the numerical total isn’t the key.

Also don’t forget to count the trades which were viable but you didn’t or couldn’t take - e.g. if you had a buy signal on XXX/YYY, and then you get a second buy signal while the first trade is still running, do you take it? Do you use different tactics to the first trade? What about a third buy signal while the first two are running?

Hi Ria, I read when you achieve a 70% winning rate you can consider yourself a pro …

BUT even a pro/winning system can have 10 losing trades in a row. it’s a hard question and an even harder anwser. To me a system is considered a winning system when I reach a certain percantage of gain at the end of the month.

BTW could you tell us more about your MA Crossover system? I love Crossover systems altough I never use indicator. I’m curious

Really?

Billy has a consistent 80% win-rate and an R of 0.2. He consistently loses money, obviously, because 80 x 0.2 is smaller than 100 - 80.

Benny has a consistent 37% win-rate and an R of 2. He consistently makes money, obviously, because 37 x 2 is bigger than 100 - 37.

So which is better - an 80% win-rate or a 37% win-rate?

I read something different from you: I read that what determines whether it’s profitable overall is your EXPECTANCY (which depends on both win-rate and ‘R’).

It made sense to me.

I read it **right here**.

Ditto the comments about expectancy. You want your average profit larger than your average loss.

Also agree with #tommor’s comment about number of trades. You want to see how your system handles different market conditions.

yes, really.

when I say 70% winning trade it should be obviously that I mean with profits. you can win 7 trades out of 10 each +1 dollar and “only” loose 3 of 10 trades each -20 dollars. is this in your opinion a winnig trade - no questionmark because we all know the anwser.

you might replace “WINNING rate” in my comment above by “PROFITABLE trade” .

Not necessarily!!!

That depends what your win rate is: an average loss a bit bigger than the average profit can be extremely profitable, if the win rate is high enough. You need to know both R and win-rate.

I’ve never seen a thread with so many inaccurate statements in it!!!

If your strategy makes enough desired profit, it is a good strategy.

Im certain Babypips just posts new threads on hot/controversial topics just to get the forum interaction up.

There is no real question. Babypips wants us to stay searching for answers on their site. Providing reasons to distract us from real profitability.

When you feel comfortable putting real money on it is when you should consider it a system to use. Do you feel like you should risk money on it or not? You can back test as much as you want to and run as many different scenarios on it as you want to, once you are comfortable enough to put real money on it then you are ready to use it.