Is it possible to predict the daily gold price with fundamental analysis? If so can anyone recommend me a website or book. Thank you.
As far as I know there is no way to predict daily gold price. Even if it could be done, you’d be a millionaire and certainly wouldn’t share it with anyone. Generally it is a safe haven, so in times of uncertainty it rises and goes opposite to usd. This is still not guaranteed to happen everytime. Start your education with the babypips course here. Practise your strategies on a demo and read books.
Nope - there is no way you can predict any market on daily basis with fundamental analysis.
But if you want to know some drivers or indicators of gold:
Negative interest rates
Central bank gold buying
Chinese new year
Indian wedding season
Major geopolitical events
Kitco is considered one of the premier sites on Gold
Beware though - while im bullish on Gold - be aware of the Perma gold bugs who thing gold is always primed to do well.
When it comes to gold have a balanced opinion. Its far to easy to get caught up in the Gold is going to da moon crowd.
One very interesting guy to follow is Martin Armstrong - his history is fascinating - almost unbelievable.
Maybe not. Here show some main factors affecting the price of gold. 1、US dollar index
When the dollar and gold and silver are 80%, there is a negative correlation: the dollar rises, the gold and silver fall; the dollar falls, and the gold and silver rise. But when the risk aversion factor dominates, the dollar and gold and silver will be in the same direction. For example, the European debt crisis, the financial crisis, and the war period.
Such as:Non-agricultural employment data; interest rate resolution; GDP data; consumer price index (inflation data) .Important monthly investment opportunities:
First Week : Bank of Europe and other central bank interest rate resolutions; US non-agricultural data Forth Week : US GDP data, UK GDP
Every six weeks: Federal Reserve interest rate decision (end of month and mid-term); minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting (mid-term and end of month)
- Monetary policy
Monetary policy directly leads to changes in the value of money, which affects the trend of gold and silver. In particular, the Fed’s monetary policy, commonly known as the Fed’s interest rate resolution: Loose monetary policy, pushing gold and silver to rise. Such as interest rate cuts Tightening monetary policy, suppressing gold and silver down. Such as raising interest rates
- peeches by important people
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, Fed officials; US President Trump;
Russian President Putin European Central Bank President Draghi;
Bank of England Governor Carney Economists such as Buffett, Soros and other important international invoices, speeches, speeches on economic views, inflation, interest rates and other aspects of the speech may cause international gold and silver price fluctuations.
- Institutional remarks
The predictive remarks of Goldman Sachs, HSBC, Barclays, Bloomberg, Reuters, and three major rating agencies (Fitch, S&P, Moody) have affected market sentiment to a certain extent, which has caused price volatility.
- Institutional positions
Gold ETF positions; silver ETF positions; speculative positions in CFTC positions report:
Institutional jiacang, good for precious metals
Institutional lightening, profitable precious metals
- Political factors
Major international political and war events will affect the price of gold. The government pays for war or to maintain the stability of the domestic economy, and a large number of investors turn to gold-preserving investments, which will expand demand for gold and stimulate gold prices to rise.
Such as the Second World War, the US-Vietnam War, the 1976 Thai coup, the 1986 “Iranian Gate” incident, the Iraq war and the recent Iranian nuclear issue, all of which caused the price of gold to rise to varying degrees.
8, crude oil prices
Crude oil price is one of the factors affecting the price of gold. In the gold market, when oil rises, the price of gold rises, and when oil falls, the price of gold falls.
Hope this is helpful for you.
Thank you everybody. One question: is the gold-silver ratio considered a fundamental indicator?
Keep your eye on the news and try to foresee what’s going to happen. Like the US/Iran tensions for example, as soon as it was clear they both didn’t want a war, the Gold price dropped…
which of these have negative or positive correlation
Where can I find gold COT? I checked on this link but can’t find anything: CFTC Commitments of Traders Report - CME (Futures Only)
Itz_Abid99, as far as my understanding goes these factors increases demand and so should increase gold price: Chinese new year, Indian wedding season.
US Dollar index has negative correlation.
You could look at Cotbase - they do a nice little product charting all the data from each market.
Thanks John. I found free information for this. CFTC Gold speculative net positions
More information about commercial traders: COT Gold, Silver and US Dollar Index Report - January 10, 2019
In case anyone is interested.
Basically you just brought up the whole fundamental list