Ok so its easy to see if market is trending on a single chart, but lets say on 4h chart is trending down, on 1d chart is going up, on a weekly chart is down again and on monthly is up, so how to know which direction market is trending if in diferent time frames is trending in other directions.
Its not easy to see a trend forming in real time because the price is whipsawed around, even on a single chart. You just have to take a best guess.
Just surprised you gave a real answer. Yes you can wait until all the stars are in alignment (all charts point in the same direction) or just use your logic and determine the markets bias. Really the markets moving back and forth all the time, there is nothing that OH its guaranteed to be trending right now. Like goldy said, just have to take a best guess.
Agree with everything said so far. Worth trying to look for LL and HH. What you might see is
- upwards trend on M1-M15
- downwards trending M30-H4 (series of lower highs)
Then the short upwards trend on the shorter TF can be used as confirmation and trade entry - when the ‘stars align’ as the lower TF reverse their upwards trend they will start forming a new LH for them and the higher TFs.
But again as previously noted, the lower TF might be the beginning of a reversal on the higher TF, so look for the lower TF to form a LH as confirmation of the overall downtrend.
You need to figure out what sort of trader you are first, intraday, swing? Do you want to hold trades for as long as possible accepting you might go from +400pips all the way back down to zero. DO you want to take 50% profit and then let the remaining trade run as a swing trade? Do you want to hold for a day or less?
By far the best indicator of trend is LL and LH or HH and HL, you can shove a 20/50 EMA on the 1hr charts and stay with it until the 50 gets broken.
Above all, you are going to have to accept that as a trend trader you might only have a 30% win ratio but on those winning trades you will be getting huge risk:reward. One thing is for sure, if you look at charts all day every day, it is going to be difficult for you to swing trade because the whipsaws will be difficult to handle psychologically.
Are you looking for long term trends to then trade intraday in the direction of the trend or are you looking for long term trends to trade and hold?
There is a difference between trend and bias.
The trend might be sell, but the mid and short TF might be a buy bias. Prices bounces off between ranges. When a new range is broken, than it retests it before continuing.
So bias will change in smaller TF as it bounces up and down as it makes HH or LL.
I find that Moving Averages work the best when deciding a market is trending.
As you can see, its a " anyones guess",
I perfer to watch candle formation. Its price action, With a story, as many give great indications, and they all mean the same, reguardless what time frame you look upon.
This is the main point. Candles, waves, HH/HL, MAs all use the same data. Different ways to look at same question. You can’t see a wave without plotting the candles; a wave needs H and L; MA just averages the data so removes some complexity (but loses some information in doing so).
Study all of these and pick your poison.
i trade with a 200EMA on 5 minute chart. if the price is under, downtrend, if its over, uptrend.
Trends are different in different timeframes.
M15’s trend is swing in H4 chart.
You can trade the short-term trend even if it contradicts the long-term trend. Just be cautious.
Dont worry about the “trend”. Trade in the direction of your bias.
Please elaborate!