Hello,
How can I identify market movements (Uptrend, Downtrend, and Range market) using Moving Averages or any other indicators?
Currently, I am using the 200 EMA:
If the current price is above the 200 EMA → Uptrend
If the current price is below the 200 EMA → Downtrend
However, this method gives incorrect results about 50% of the time.
Is there a better alternative to determine trends using Moving Averages or any other indicators?
The 200EMA is not relevant unless you have a holding period through your strategy of about 50 bars. Use a shorter duration MA.
But a MA only really offers confirmaiton of what you have already concluded from price action.
50 EMA works better than 200 EMA?, I thought more bars means more accuracy. What other indicator or other value moving average i can include with 50 EMA for better confirmation of trend?
Using a second MA can offer some confirmation of the confirmation. The second MA needs to be 2 or 3 or 4 times shorter duration than the primary. But don’t be tempted to use their crossover points as entry or exit signals, this works very badly.
Price action is till going to be your mainTA.
Indicators are always going to be (by far) the “second-best” way, as @tommor explains above.
But these links might help you -
First, read the replies above slowly and carefully, and ask yourself why two very experienced (and helpful) traders, above, are each telling you what they’re telling you.
Second, understand clearly and remember that a trend exists only within a specified timeframe: financial instruments trend in one direction within a specified timeframe while either ranging or trending in the opposite direction in other, different timeframes. That’s NORMAL, not unusual.
Thirdly, here are two methods that can work -
(a) (Best one, and most reliable): stop using indicators and learn how to use price action instead to determine the trend;
(b) (Less good, but can still work ok): use two simple moving averages of the typical price, SMA-20 and SMA-60. An uptrend is when the first is above the second and their lines are diverging and both are sloping up and whole price bars are above the first; a downtrend is when the first is below the second and their lines are diverging and both are sloping down and whole price bars are below the first; at all other times there’s no “adequate trend”.
No such thing as trading a trend. They’re only observed in hindsight.
This^^^
Price moves up and down, for the most part, in all time frames. In an uptrend, price is forming higher highs and higher lows. In a downtrend, price is forming lower lows and lower highs. I’m sure this is explained in detail through the links posted by @SchmaltzHerring.
A long-term trend on the daily or weekly chart is more likely to continue, than to reverse.
As a visual, I like to draw channels to represent a current trend…
Oil weekly chart:
Remember that these are just rough lines on a chart, a visual for guidance. The market doesn’t see them because they’re not really there, so don’t assume price will respect them, just like what happened in the last chart. It’s a game of probabilities, and EURJPY will probably continue lower, based on recent price action. But, that’s just my personal opinion, based on my analysis. Someone else will look at that chart and say “no, it’s clearly at a major support level and is headed up”, in which case they’d probably be right and I’m getting stopped out.
Learning to read price action is a skill that takes time and practice, but it’s a valuable skill once you’ve mastered it.
Good luck.
That’s not entirely true. In this age of huge technical analysis even by institutions, the market does see and react to them. But the underlying reason of why it’s trending may change or value is reached, which then triggers a move to break the trend lines.
Trend lines, support/resistance, are subjective. Some draw them at the close, some at the high/low (using the wicks). As long as people understand that they are zones, not literal lines then yes, they do exist in the way you described.
As you know, when learning, people take things very literally so you have to be careful with wording.
Your question is actually answered in the post to which you replied. Such is life. Well, carbon-based life, anyway. Silicon-based life may be different in that regard, as in so many others.
Lol, I’ll tell you this much, guys: it’s turned into a really philosophical (and valuable, and interesting) thread, but I’m still going to beat a hasty retreat from it because I’m a psychologist but no philosopher at all. 
I’m not really a philosophical person, except maybe when my chi is low.
The general rule seems to be that when a fast MA breaks above the slow MA, the trend is up, and vice versa.
Do you think there is any validity to a 3-moving average system like “Consensio”—used by the late Dr. Tyler Jenks of Lucid Investment Strategies?
3, 7, 30 MAs… I know I saw him use it on daily and weekly charts as a bull market confirmation tool in the S&P and BTC. Price above, MAs in order, all sloping up. I don’t think I ever saw him use it for entries points, support/resistance, or anything like that. Obviously, a long-term thing. But I like that.
I always planned to watch his deep dive on it.
Do you think this would be a waste of time?
The thing about an uptrend is you can always firn 1 or 2 or 3 or 30 MA’s which are also now sloping upwards and which are now stacked in a sequence with the shortest duration at the top and the longest at the bottom.
This structure tells you that price has been in an uptrend. MA’s take a certain amount of time to react to the most recent price data they are built on. So the number of MA’s and their vertical sequence do not tell you whether the uptrend still exists so their usefulness and accuracy is immediately suspect.
The same characteristic delay in reacting to price data also means they cannot pinpoint the start of an uptrend. This isn’t crucial in trend-following strategies because that trader actually wants a trend to be established and obvious to everyone before they want to follow it - but it does not help if you’re using a trend reversal strategy.
In that case, how do you ever make a profit? Everyone needs price to move in the desired direction of Profit Taking level, therefore, it must trend, or loss occurs.
So, even if the most contrarian trader ever makes an entry, by definition, he will be a trend trader to WIN.
@FOK - I really would not bother.
I meant I would not bother asking the member you put this question to - “In that case, how do you ever make a profit?”
Hello everyone! 
Here comes party pooper extraordinaire, $_McGavin to spoil the party! 
For technical analysis, moving averages are the best tools on the planet, nothing else comes close, not even price action. MAs can not only show the current trend but (in the right hands) can forecast future price movements with deadly accuracy.
Here is snapshot of when I was deep in the weeds of cycle harmonics using nothing but moving averages. This is a gold chart from Oct 2023, note the price is at $1881.44:
The moving averages were forecasting a focal point at $1915.03/oz (labeled as Projected upswing focal point in the chart). In cycle harmonics, the focal point is where all the moving averages cross each other and marks the halfway point up or down a price swing / cycle. In this case, the moving averages were forecasting the halfway point of the ongoing uptrend / upswing to be $1915.03, which in turn forecasts the top of the upswing at $2008.14.
This 
is an updated chart with the forecasted (projected) and the actual focal points and their targets (forecasted top of the upswing). The actual focal point ended up being around $1912.62, which forecasts the top of the upswing at $2003.52. As the chart shows, the actual focal point was off by $2.43 or 0.13% while both the forecasted upswing targets ($2003.52 and $2008.14) were hit:
Please forgive my bluntness, but it needs to be said:
The limitation lies with what the sculptor (= trader) can do with the tools (= indicators) not the tools themselves. The problem here is that most forum members are part-time, self-taught traders who simply don’t have the available time to develop advanced analytical skills, but it doesn’t mean that it can’t be done.
