How to Forecast

What is the best way to forecast the direction of the market for the following day?

A crystal ball. :rofl:

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To become a time traveller.

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Okay, besides the two snarky answers you have already received from my good friends on this wonderful site, let me share my two cents worth. I don’t normally do this, but some traders mark out the high and low of the previous day.

The idea here is that if you are at the low of the previous day, you can look for buy signals reversing the direction, which may net you a decent swing trade, and vice versa. Also, it is sometime suseful to look for weekend gaps which typically, the market will try to close immediately, and quite possibly net you a profit there.

All in all, though, I am a reactionary trader, meaning I trade the price action as it comes at me, without trying to make predictions. I react to it by taking trades in the direction of immediate strength. Personally, I think this is the way to go, instead of trying to predict the next day’s direction.

Hope this helps. All the best on the charts. :grinning_face_with_smiling_eyes:

Its surprisingly difficult to forecast price direction for the next 24 hours. Its like trying to forecast the weather in England in Spring - tomorrow could be colder than today but it could be warmer. Its actually easier to forecast price ahead over a longer period - I am confident that on the date 2 months from today it will be warmer here.

In a trend, price tends to close in the direction of the trend about 55% of the time. Over a long period, even such a slight advantage can be an edge over random trading, especially if combined with a positive risk:reward ratio and compounding your account by not withdrawing profits.

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Agree, keeping in mind the volatility its tough but not impossible to understand price movements. I keep a check on 4 H tf to trade on 15 m intervals and 200 ema crossovers

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this is a fine reply with more information , got some fine lines.

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You need both fundamental analysis and technical analysis in order to forecast the market the next day -
First, you need to follow signals to have an idea about the future predictions. But remember that signals, although reliable, are not fully accurate.
Second, to get a little more accuracy, cross check signal indications by analysing price actions and indicators.
Third, follow the news (business and economics) to see how the market will react tomorrow, or have the slightest idea).
Afterall, the uniqueness of the forex market is that it is unpredictable and volatile in nature. No prediction can be 100%

Forecasting is the result of analysis, which is of two types including fundamental analysis and technical analysis. Good forecast is possible those analyses are done well otherwise it’s a big problem for a trader because a wrong forecast leads to losses.