Its an annoying fact of life michael, that you can’t know 100% what price will do.
But you can know 60% what it might do and you must know 100% what you will do about it.
So, where were the mistakes if any in what you did?
Were you wrong to go long? For me, yes, because I only trade with trends, not at reversals, as I find it has a higher probability of profit.
But assuming you accept the risk of a reversal trade, were you too early in going long? I would say Yes and No. If you wanted to minimise your risk of loss, Yes, you acted too early: you could have waited for some confirmation to show on the chart. But confirmation signals can also fail, so it still doesn’t bring you to the 100% certainty level. So maybe you’d be happy to accept the reduced risk anyway and get in, but you’d need to size your position accordingly. On the other hand, if you wanted to reduce your risk of missed gain, then No you were not too early. Sometimes reversals lead into such a fast move that the r:r of the trade becomes unworthwhile.
Finally, were you right to stay out of the second move upward? Yes. Surely you could have gone long at or near or after the second reversal? What stopped you?