I need you insights about a particular topic : pairs correlations
I’ll give you an example : if I want to long EURCAD, I go check correlation values with my already open trades (let’s say I already have a short NZDCHF open and losing)
Now the problem is when the table shows me a positive correlation between the two pairs, it’s conflicting and I don’t know what to do
Shall i close the NZDCHF trade since it’s losing before getting long on EURCAD ? or not open EURCAD at all and wait for the outcome of NZDCHF trade ? Sometimes the NZDCHF (losing position) will turn out profitable and I’ll end up losing money on my new trade
EUR and CHF are often well correlated - for example look at CHF/JPY and EUR/JPY D1 charts over the last 3 months and see if you can tell them apart. So adding a long EUR/CAD to a short NZD/CHF is effectively doubling your long-side exposure to the European currencies. That’s not necessarily wrong but it certainly raises your overall risk exposure.
Just as CHF is subordinate to EUR, so NZD is subordinate to AUD. Both Switzerland and New Zealand carry out the bulk of their trade through their larger neighbours, the EU and Australia respectively. TA decisions from the junior partner’s currency in these two relationships are potentially misleading as they can often be whipped into line by the larger currency’s TA.
In addition, see the other 6 NZD pairs - 4 of the 6 are pretty bullish anyway.