Understand forex trading economic calendar, by forex forum.
Investors use the economic calendar to track market trends, such as economic indicators and monetary policy decisions. Usually, an economic calendar is displayed as a chart showing a particular year’s days, weeks, and months. Every day, several market-moving events are listed in chronological order, giving investors time to research and anticipating specific interest releases.
What Is Economical Calendar?
The economic calendar makes you aware of the important dates of any event or release that may affect the economic situation of the market. The financial sectors are a news-driven market interest vehicle. Thus, the arrival of significant news or financial events will drive price growth in the market.
For traders, this term is like their best friend. They only spend one to two minutes a day, but for them that one minute is very important and they start their day by going through the economic calendar.
Understanding the Economic Calendar
Economic calendars usually focus on the scheduled releases of economic reports for a given country. Examples of events that are listed on an economic calendar include weekly jobless claims, reports of new home starts, scheduled changes in the interest rate or interest rate signaling, regular reports from the Federal Reserve or other central banks, economic sentiment surveys from specific markets, and hundreds of other types of events.
What are some of the most important events on an economic calendar ?
Each of the announcements and news events below are big drivers of volatility, especially in the forex markets. None move the market more than Non-farm payroll data (NFP), which is released on the first Friday of every month and reports on the health of the United States jobs market. Other economic news with significant impact includes central bank interest rate decisions and consumer price index (CPI).
Here are the most impactful financial events that move the markets on a monthly basis:
- US Non-farm payrolls (NFP)
- Employment Indicators (labour force, payroll, and unemployment data estimate)
- Central Bank rate decisions (central banks minutes/statement)
- Consumer Price Index (CPI) or Inflation
- Retail Sales
- EIA Crude OIL Inventory
- OPEC Meetings
- Produce Price Index (PPI)
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
- New Home Sales
- Durable Goods Orders
- Existing Home Sales
- ISM Data
- Trade Balance
HOW TO READ THE FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR
Knowing how to read the forex economic calendar properly is important to maximize your analysis and trading strategy prior to and following the most important releases. Checking the calendar every morning will allow you to familiarize yourself with the upcoming events that matter. Take stock of the economists’ forecasts associated to events (those that carry them) as that can help set the market’s expectations as well as the impact the outcome has when the ‘actual’ posts relative to forecasts.
In default mode, the calendar will show you every piece of economic news coming out of the major economies. For many, that will be information overload, so you may want to customize the look.
Recurring news events tend to make the most compelling indicators because they have predictable effects on trading sentiment and volume. Examples include scheduled publication dates for widely regarded market statistics or surveys, and anticipated events such as federal decisions on interest rates, trade balances, and inflation.
Although other international events can affect market volatility, the economic impact and time line of solitary events is less certain and can, therefore, be harder to trade.
There are many free versions of economic calendars available online, but designated trading platforms tend to offer account holders access to a more agile and all-encompassing calendar. Before you choose an economic calendar at random, remember that your calendar is only as useful as the events are relevant to your chosen market(s).
Because forex trading is international in nature, it’s helpful to have a calendar that allows you to set custom qualification criteria and filter results by country and currency used.
How to Use a Forex Economic Calendar?
The economic calendar can be used in several ways. Firstly, since it also includes the numbers from the previous release, the trader can get some idea about the direction of economic indicators. For example, the latest Eurozone inflation forecast came out at 0.7%, with the previous release at 1.2%. This shows that HICP is not only much lower than ECB’s goal of ‘close to 2%’, but it is recently diverging from that mark even further. So we might conclude that this is going to put more pressure on EUR.
The economic calendar also shows the consensus of forecasts; basically, this is the market expectation. For example, there is an upcoming event risk of the Reserve Bank of Australia Interest rate decision. It is forecasted to stay at 0.25%. If the RBA unexpectedly hikes the rates to 0.50%, that would exceed market expectations and can be very bullish for the Australian dollar. On the other hand, a rate cut to 0% would be bearish for AUD.
Trading Strategies using the Forex Event Calendar
Now that you are familiar with the Forex economic calendar and you know how to interpret the data inside, I will show you a couple of strategies used by fundamental news traders.
Trading in the Direction of the Release
This is one of the most common news trading strategies. The point is to wait for an event and to trade immediately in the direction of the announcement.
If the event is better than expected, then you buy the respective currency. If the event is worse than expected, you simply sell the currency.
Your stop loss order should be placed on the other side of your entry point, preferably beyond a recent swing. However, you should try to keep your stop a bit loose, since high volatility is expected at the time of the release and shortly thereafter. If the stop is tight, then there is a high likelihood that the price hits your stop loss from the whipsawing price action.
The Importance of Economic Calendar for Traders
Each trader needs to follow the latest events through the economic calendar as it acts as an indication of upcoming events and possible market changes. The economic calendar covers information on the inflation rate, consumer confidence index, immovable property index, PMI manufacturing, construction spending, retail sales, trade balance, and key announcements for the United States, Great Britain, Japan, and other developed countries.
The risks
All traders, both day traders, and swing traders should be aware of the events marked red. The volatility around that event is typical.
Many traders pending their orders during that moment. Consequently, there is usually a drop in liquidity even before a market-moving occurs.
The price will narrow back and forth due to fewer orders to absorb market buy and sell orders.
The importance of staying up to date
Staying up to date with the economic calendar gives both beginners and advanced traders an edge in the market.
For novices, being aware of more volatile days will guide you on when to steer clear of trades. An economic calendar can also help less experienced traders understand how markets behave around the time of news releases – a critical and ongoing learning process.
Reducing the risks
The only way to reduce the risk is by checking your calendar every morning before you start trading. Remember the times of each major data release and arrange your strategy accordingly.
An Economic Calendar For Different Markets
Whether you trade forex, futures, or stocks, there is an economic calendar for you. Forex and options traders can use forum.forex/calendar . If you trade stock options, check the US earnings calendar. Earnings have a significant impact on price, just like economic data releases.
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