ok mate
THIS IS WHAT YOU KNOW SO FAR
ACCOUNT BALANCE = $10,000
RISK = 1% of Account Balance
you also know that my trade plan (that i purposely created to be stupid) was as follows :
You also said that you know how much $$$ you are prepared to lose aka 1%
we calculate it like this…
0.01 (1%) x 10,000 = $100
VERY GOOD,
so you know YOU MUST NOT LOSE MORE THAN $100 - NO MATTER WHAT YOU DO , PER TRADE
HERE IS WHAT YOU DON’T KNOW
and what you have missed
RISK MEANS - Where have you Put your Stop Loss
RISK IS STOP LOSS
REWARD IS TAKE PROFIT
now there are more things to consider in risk, but let’s just stick to saying that
The Further you put your stop loss away from your entry
THE MORE RISK YOU HAVE
Meaning… the More money you’ll lose
SO LET’S CALCULATE THE AMOUNT OF PIPS FROM MY ENTRY TO MY STOP LOSS
ENTRY = 1.3377
STOP LOSS = 1.3332
Since this is a BUY
it’s calculated like this 3377-3332
of if you like, you can just do 77-32 (you get the same result)
ANSWER = 45 PIP RISK
NEXT PROBLEM
a pip means nothing unless you know how much 1 Pip is worth
LOOK AT MY LOT SIZE FOR GODS SAKE
I Told you that i made $541.37
Doesn’t that seem like a lot ?
Now, this is a trick question, because if you say YES
i could say, it’s not because if my risk is managed and my lot size is appropriate to my balance, then the risk is ok
if you say NO, then i would raise an eyebrow as to why you said that
the correct answer is NOT NECESSARILY
let’s move to the trade history of that 1 trade
let’s put aside the $21.00 commission
FOCUS ON THE LOT SIZE…3.0 LOTS
NOW THAT’S $30 PER PIP
i purposely put this in there to make it stick out like a sore thumb on top of sore thumb
YOU DIDN’T PICK UP ON IT
THIS TELLS ME
IF YOU TRADE LIVE, YOU ARE FIRETRUCKED (if you get my meaning)
let’s Look at how much you would lose
so $30 Per Pips x 45 Pips (Stop Loss) = $1,350
now remember on $10,000, IF WE RISK NO MORE THAN 1%, it means MAX RISK = $100
yet , IN THIS SCENARIO, I would have just lost $1,350 (10x more) which is a bit more than 10% of your entire account
WHICH THEN MEANS THIS…
IF IT’S 10%
and your entire account is 100%
YOU CAN ONLY STUFF UP 10 TIMES BEFORE YOUR ACCOUNT IS BLOW
10 TIMES… OK
I’ll say it again… ONLY 10 TIMES
10% doesn’t sound like much to newbies, but regardless of whether you start with $100 $10k , $100k is irrelevant
10% is a lot
now, let’s see what i SHOULD HAVE TRADED IN LOTS TO BE SAFE
so 1% Risk = $100
SO OVER 45 pips
YOU DO THIS CALCULATION
100 / 45 = 2.22
SO YOU ARE ONLY ALLOWED TO RISK $2.22 PER PIP
so you need to round this down to $2 per pip which = LOTS SIZE OF 0.2 Lots
BUT WAIT THERE’S MORE
NEXT TRAP YOU’LL FALL INTO
Remember how i said PLAN YOUR TRADE and stick to it
SCENARIO
Let’s say you have $10k in your account
you plan your entry
you put your Stop Loss 45 Pips away
YOUR LOT SIZE = 0.2 lots
ALL GOOD
your risk is managed at 1% of your total capital
THEN THIS HAPPENS
The trade goes the wrong way - You are still ok
You’ve researched the trade
YOU ARE CERTAIN IT’S GONNA COME BACK UP TO THE TAKE PROFIT
****************** READ THIS VERY CAREFULLY ***************************************
Now Because you are sure , YOU MOVE YOUR STOP LOSS DOWN BY ANOTHER 10 - 15 PIPS
YOU THINK IT’LL B OK
but it won’t
because something like this will probably happen
either
- You’ll move it another 15 pips (so it’s at 60 pips loss instead of 45) and then it goes into profit,
so it works out ok
Make no Mistake (THIS IS NOT A GOOD THING)
or
2 Your stop loss gets hits and you end up losing the following
$2 per pip x 60 pips = $120 instead of $100
it might not seem like a lot, BUT IT IS
or
- the trade goes against you, You move it 15 pips lower (to 60 pips)
the trade continues to go lower and you realize you have only 2 options… 1. Close the trade and lose or 2. let it run and stick to your guns and hopefully win
SO YOU LET IT RUN
it goes lower again and you MOVE YOUR STOP LOSS AGAIN by another 15 pips (now 75 pips)
it goes lower again, you then move it by another 15 pips (Now 90 Pips)
YOU ARE GOING TO GET TO A POINT WHERE ONLY 1 OF 2 THINGS HAPPEN
- You have no more funds and your account is blown up
or
- YOU ARE GOING TO REALIZE, IT’S NOT TURNING AROUND AND… YOU WERE WRONG
at this point
IT WILL HIT YOUR STOP LOSS
it will look like this
$2 per pip x 90 pips = $180 LOSS
you just lost 80% More than you planned to lose
before too long, you lose your entire account
shortly after that , you’ll get depressed
you’ll bottle up in inside and won’t tell anyone
IT’S NOT A GOOD THING
THE LESSON IS THIS
- PLAN YOUR TRADES
- STICK TO YOUR TRADE
- DO NOT MOVE YOUR STOP LOSS once it has been placed
the idea is this
If you don’t move the Stop Loss and You Win - YOU DID THE RIGHT THING - LEARN FROM IT… REWARD YOURSELF.
if you don’t move the stop loss and YOU LOSE - ACCEPT YOUR STUFF UP - LEARN FROM IT… do not get depressed or sad
TRADING IS MATHEMATICS AND STATISTICS… ok
so Remember
DO THIS
- DETERMINE WHAT DIRECTION YOU ARE TRADING IN
- DETERMINE WHAT A GOOD ENTRY POINT WILL BE
- Based on the Entry Point DETERMINE YOUR RISK in %
- Convert the % Risk to $$
- DETERMINE WHERE YOU WILL PUT YOUR STOP LOSS (Regardless of your take profit)
don’t worry about lot size yet, Just figure out how many pips you think the price WILL NOT GO to
- Now, Based on your Stop Loss
use the formula
TOTAL RISK IN $$$ / (Divided by) AMOUNT OF PIPS for the trade = MAX AMOUNT OF $$ PER TRADE
- once you know how much money you can risk in that trade, CONVERT THAT AMOUNT TO LOTS
follow this guideline
0.01 Lots = 10 cents per pip
0.1 Lots = $1 per pip
1.0 Lot = $10 Per pip
when you know all this
you can place a MANAGED TRADE where your risk is managed
BUT REMEMBER
It only remains managed if YOU DO NOT MOVE YOUR STOP LOSS
DO YOU SEE THE PROBLEM WITH MY TRADE NOW ???
Hope i have taught you something here
I’ve got more homework for you
I want you to go open a demo account
Account Balance $1,000
LEVERAGE 1:500 or higher
Trade with no less than 0.1 lots $1 per pip
Try to make $50 per day
now open another demo, same thing
but AT THE SAME TIME
trade with no less than 0.5 lots $5 per pip
Try to make $50 per day
SEE WHAT HAPPENS
LOL
YOU’LL SEE, don’t worry
then come back here and tell me i was right… ok
see you soon