you and I obviously look at charts very differently.
not to mention on a 4 hr chart… my 4h may be quite different than yours.
a 1 hr chart on the other hand u and i would hve the same chart always.
Jay
OK fair enough, but I’ll be watching your trades… think I know why you entered there and why you set your TP where you did. Its pip perfect for a lessor known strat. Your secret is safe with me lol, my entry long was at 3478.
EDIT: Just kidding with you but seriously it was a pip perfect entry.
well RC… theres no secret in this case buddy, i’ll try to quickly summarize why i took it. (because a full explanation is more than feel like typing here)
-
We just retraced to the highs of an area of consolidation before the breakout. I know that this marks the beginning of a
zone where a lot of people went short…and of course… were wrong. A winner never needs to cover, but LOSERS NEED TO COVER. And large traders who are offered an opportunity to cover at BE or close to it…TAKE IT. So, i know the losing shorts who are still holding will cover at this retracement, and their coving will push price up. -
I saw a pattern that i’m not going to go into why it works, or how i understand it exactly, but based on the spike up
and back down we saw on friday, and yesterday the spike down and then back up… I very strongly think we are heading up from here to at least 1.3600. Furthermore, I think this point is one of just 2 or 3 that will be a likely low point for that move up…if it’s going to occur. -
As price has been selling off since since the U.S. stock market closed… and large traders like to buy low and sell high. After such a selloff, and coming into the asian session, the larger asian speculators will see this as an opportunity to place long orders, for the market is more likely to move up after a selloff when coming into size (losing shorts from below in this case) I mean. if you could buy or sell a few million of eur/usd…would you want to sell after price is at the low for the last few hours and you know there’s a lot of folks sitting around who want to buy? I wouldn’t
So…no idea what “strat” your talking about… I really only have 1 or two true “stragety based trades” that I trade that follows a set “strat”… I trade concepts, not specific strategies.
Your looking at my trading from the wrong perspective if you will. It’s conceptual, and considers everything I know and can put together to understand WHO is playing…WHY…what there intentions are…and how they will best be able to realize those intentions.
It’s the difference between being able to follow a recipe to make a good cake, and just having enough experience in kitchens that you could create any type of cake you want without a recipe. Because you know what makes a good cake… you don’t need a specific recipe.
Whats more, such a specific recipe would likely only prevent you from making a truly great cake…because…well… to do that…you’d have to really know what makes a great cake. and there isn’t much of a recipe for that type of thing 
Jay
P.S. I’m particularly proud of my “follow a cake recipe/create a cake” analogy RC… hope u appreciate what I’m doing here.
Will take profits on 0.25% of my original position at 1.3515
I am then moving stops to BE on the final 25%, and targeting 1.3570
P.S. I also sill have part of the last entry yesterday from around 1.3465. stop at BE on that guy currently.
Jay
I really like the work I see here it’s not about specific entries or exit. It’s about the entire thought process and logical reasoning behind it. Each trade might be different but if you have this trading mentality then you can see these types of actions in the market place. I hope one day I too can be a baker who can make cakes based on what I feel would make a great cake. Until then I will stick to my recipe card. But after enough practice and intuitive learning and maintaining this who is playing and why mindset I hope I will be on the right path.
closed eur/usd t BE
Also…moved 2nd order down to 1.3455
Short AUD/USD from 0.9842
stop is 0.9880
target is 0.9803
correction: price filled 0.9840
riskiing 0.35%
Thanks for your comments Meihua…appreciated
And I think your 100% right. For anyone not trading full time already, learn what you can from this thread…but take it all with a grain of salt in regards to trying wild and crazy trading like this!
I know for FACT that many full time traders do not take my approach in their trading, and many of them have been doing it longer than me, and make more money. This type of approach takes much longer to get down really, and also ISN’T NECESSARY.
I think for most folks who either already do trade, or are aspiring to trade full time, there is SO MUCH to consider already just to get that far… that one would be better off with a more mechanical approach.
It’s like this. You can be a great cook. Or you can be a great chef.
And to run a very very profitable restaurant, all you need to be is a great cook. The rest of the business will be challenging enough, and in many ways more important to your success than being able to prepare original, “special”, high end culinary delights.
Denny’s is a immensely popular diner in the U.S. and they are worth hundereds of millions having never made a single 4 star meal ever.
the other stuff is actually more important. master that first… and you can develop a larger game while you sip martinis from the 3rd story deck of your seaside palace
Jay
P.S. closed half aud/usd short at -5 pip loss. put order in to re-enter with a 0.25% risk at 0.9829, target 0.9802, stop 0.9860
One of the hardest things for me to do is develop a concept of whats going on in a market… see that my analysis was dead spot on… and then be able to throw that entire idea out the window at the next juncture.
This is one of the reasons for this journal. And if I can personally cross this hurdle… it will be a milestone in my trading career.
As of yesterday, I worked out a fairly sophisticated reasoning for the way E/U would move… how far, and over what time.
I was pretty much dead on in every respect. I entered a bit early and got spanked for it… but… I was right on the move.
Now I am figuring out how to throw this idea out as it’s not doing what i origonal expected. Mor on this in a moment.
[B]EUR/USD order at 1.3455 cancelled[/B]
short on gbp/usd if we can pull up to 1.5630 before we touch 1.5602
stop 30 pips, target 27 pips
Jay
P.S.
The other position on the aud/usd short just filled.
Also… pulled stop back to 0.9865 for aud/usd on 2nd order. this increases risk by about 20% more. so i’m risking 0.30% on 2nd order.
Jay
new order on eur/usd LONG
1.3457
stop 30 pips
target 40 pips
risking 0.35%
CONT from post #331.
So… today is just that type of day. At this point…I’m really not sure what will happen, but as I review more information, I am coming to the conclusion that a move down to at least 1.3400 is actually…probably, a bit more likley.
I will go through some of the reasons possibly later here… but as I type this, I see a bit of a double head fake setting up for the london session…with the longer more extended move working out to the downside…to 1.3400 or below.
This is tough for me to do. At thsi point…I will take this long at 1.3457, and posssibly a short if we near the weeks highs.
Anothe short around 1.3425-1.3430 to push into the 1.3400 level… but all of this will be small target stuff…and I begrudgingly have to admit that I was right on everything yesterday but magnitude. A move up did occur…but it didn’t arrive at my final destination, and it now is looking more like a move down further than a move up to that target.
Just typing this out brings me some clarity…and also allows me to limit the locations I will enter before hand.
in the past…even the not so distant past… A day like today would set up, and I would cling to former reasons that held far less water in the present. I would take 4, 5, or even 6 or more trades against the trend as I “Just knew it had to bounce!”
The thing is…i’m a really good turning point picker. and so this type of behavior I have reenforced because I make my living like that.
but the irrational, emotional re-entry due to lack of thinking things through or lack of restriction could cost me 2-3 days profit in 1 day
having a day or 2 of those a month hurts…and that’s about what I’ve reduced it to now.
This journaling of mine should keep it to maybe a day or 2 a year…which would give me almost 10% more annual profit.
definately worth me doing.
Jay
Well… so far today’s trading has been a little scary. It might by my first losing day of significant size. I am taking larger risks per trade than last week (trying to keep my trades risking 0.30%- 0.40%) So of course this is was bound to be a possibility… but I will be sure to do a very careful review tomorrow of anything and everything that loses today.
I know if today ends up being a losing day in genereal, I will be even more keen to understand why. I may not even consider trading anything else other than what I’ve worked on on eur/usd… and may reduce the risk size on that just in CASE negative emotions cloud by ability to execute and exit a trade off those levels.
Time, as always… will tell
Jay
it’s definately times like today that I am able to do the most damage to my account.
This is a small account i’m trading in…to improve my trading and (I hope) hit a very nice goal in 35.5 more months.
However, today I’ve had to re-evaluate my paradigm of understanding from yesterday…and yet not have a real clear conclusion on what may happen. I have some good places to trade from…but they will be quick trades…small targets…etc.
and ON TOP of that…I have two trades of larger risk amount than I usually have taken in the past are loooking like they are in trouble.
This absolutely puts more stress on me…and I am temepted to try to not exactly revenge trade…but to “make the money back”
If these two trades I have on now both stop out… I’ll be down just over 1 percent for the day…which is my biggest losing day by far since starting to take a careful, planned approach to this project.
This is actually a good place for me to be however, because based on the way i’m feeling, I will likey do NO trading in my futures account tonight.
I made $650 yesterday, and I am not in the best place beacuse of reasons listed above to be able to think clearly and get a good picture in my mind of whats likely to happen.
Therefore, I will do nothing in it. Until I am sure. I will do nothing.
Up $650 in a short week is sure as heck better than up $250…and WAYY better than down -$650.
I may just be done for the rest of the week in my futures account. We’ll wait and see.
as a note… i’m loooking at the 0.9880 level - 0.9900 level in aud/usdd as a level to short at. I’m not going to take it because I feel it’s an emotional impulsive trade to make back what I"m down…should I be down, and I have not done a full analysis of aud/usd for that type of setup tonight. I just want to take a note here… so I can go back and see what happened.
Over time, this should give me clarity as to what is an emotional decision, and what is a decison made with good reason in spite of emotions.
Jay
PA trading requires we maximize good set ups that has high probability and stay out of the dodgy ones when we cant really see what is in store.
The real way should be to stay out but that is so tough.
So I usually really drop the risk factor and the TP level. 20 pips on 1 or even 0.5% is still profit.
The way to grow the account fast is to not loose money in the first place.
I guess you been doing well in that department so far in regards to this account here.
Ok, on Eur/Usd
I have a short order at 1.3540, with a 26 pip stop…30 pip target. risking 0.30%
a long at 1.3457, 30 pip stop, 30 pip target, risking 0.35%. May adjust this target as this trade is occuring.
Jay
P.S. DO NOT take these trades in a real account with real money 
again… trading is risky, and you could lose everything in your account and then some.
Nikita, your absolutely right. And this (among other reasons) is why I’ve put this goal up, as well as been focusing on journaling my thoughts, my opinions, etc as I seem them to be relevent.
One of the primary reasons i’ve done well trading futures full time is that I am able to take a 10 pip profit, with basically no spread, and make $100 - $125 on a single contract.
In fact…the other day I posted up a screen shot with an $1800ish profit (ended up making over $2200 by the end of the day)
If you’ll notice though, it was over 20 trades that day.
I’m taking small pieces of a strong move down in that case. I have never experienced that kind of result trading spot forex. I have had good results of course (traded only spot when i first started full time…for over 9 months)… but never had a 5 figure month until i switched to futures. now It’s the rule rather than the exception… and I think you’ve touched on one big reason why:
the futures market is superior for scalping small moves when compared to the spot market.
That being said, I think I will find a way to play to my strengths.
I am going to set out to determine a set of rules in which I have a day like today…where I really don’t know what will happen next, I will then resort to limiting my stops and targets to a percentage of the average daily range, and of course considering S/R, market correlation, and other factors as per usual.
And yeah, i’m keeping my risk per trade very low because as this more complete plan of mine fleshs out, I want to be able to turn up the risk and power up to the goal, and as much as I want to be ahead of schedule in say… 2 more months… I know how much more important it is to not be BEHIND in capital, as I develop the neuances of my trading in order to take it to the next level.
Jay
More thoughts on the potential eur/usd short at 1.3540 -
Ok… so sentiment continues to worsen for europe. I do expect to want to sell any rallies here, but I don’t know where price will turn from tonight.
With that being said, it’s better to conserve capital and make it back when there are better opportunities, than to try to make it back when the markets not setting up for anything very clear cut.
I’m reducing the risk on my 3540 short order down to 0.25%.
Jay