short eur/usd at 1.3564
stop 25 pips
target 25 pips
risking 0.10%
short eur/usd at 1.3564
stop 25 pips
target 25 pips
risking 0.10%
Hmmā¦I think i got a little aggressive with this recent trade.
moved stop down to 1.3571
donāt wan this anymoreā¦so rather reduce risk
ok, eur/usd trade long has both positions filledā¦and iād expect it to move up pretty much from hereā¦
Jay
profit taken at 1.3645 for the first position that originally was risking 0.10%
the larger postion is still open
closed 50% of trade opened at 1.3523 at 1.3554
the rest is targeting 1.3570
Jay
stop move to BE
will get running totals on all trades listed here shortly
for now, hereās the results of todays trading in my futures account:
Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Congrats Jay, that looks pretty good!
Alright, so here is a summary of todays numbers here:
5 trades - 4 winners.
net profit Profit 0.4248%
It may not seem like much, but this would be about 3% ROI had I been risking even just 1% per trade.
At 1% per trade, iād be up about 4%-5% this week so far.
After this week, iām going to be bumping up my trade percentage most likely, as my very low risk per trade
has more to do with fear of failure than it does to do with good trading. (irrational fear I might add. I do this for a living
using less caution and acheive a 60%+ winrate. Amazing the effect of a single day of getting whooped publicly
will do to a persons āballsā)
this brings this week to:
11 trades, 8 winners - 72% win rate
net profit 0.7428%
Last week I was down 2.53% - pretty much all in 1 day. This is when I realized I needed a plan to prevent this from
really ever happening again. Wonāt bother with posting the win/loss rate. itās pretty sad.
The first week I posted results of my trading in ārealtimeā was actually on my other thread here on babypips
profit for the week: 2.675%
10 profitable trades,
6 unprofitable trades
62.5% success rate
I posted it here on my āoriginalā thread:
http://forums.babypips.com/newbie-island/39827-professional-trader-offering-free-mentorship-via-babypips-chat-room.html
[B]So, starting with $1000, and readjusting that on a weekly basis to determine my current ābalanceā from which to determine
my risk per trade, my account currently stands at: 1,007.50[/B]
Thatās after 12 trading days. This does NOT put me on track to meet my trading goalsā¦however, if I were to increase my
bet sizing, Iād be doing quite well.
Will bump it up slightly for tomorrow (probably average around a 0.25% risk). If I can get a 1% profit tomorrow, iāll bump up to 0.35% the next day.
Nothing to do but wait and see what the next trading session brings
Jay
Well, wifeās flight is delayed, and this will likely cut through my trading time tonight. so, probably wonāt be trading.
will update later.
Jay
had time for 1 trade. eur/usd long at 1.3457
target 1.3479
stop 1.3435
risking 0.25%
took half profit at 1.3475.
stop moved to BE
P.S. target moved up to 1.3490
trade closed, 1.3488
profit hit
profit for today:
0.29%
and done
account now stands at nearly 1% net profit since beginning this.
goodnight allā¦will post up the full anlaysis later
Wellā¦turns out I was able to take 1 more trade, and a 2nd one of my preset orders triggered.
Since i wasnāt able to post these trades up in ārealtimeā (give or take a minute or so)
Iāll post both pictures up so you all can see my entry point.
on eur/usd shortā¦the pic below, i ended up taking profits at 1.3470. about 54 pips for 45 pips of riskā¦and i took 0.25% risk on this trade.
Uploaded with ImageShack.us
profit of 0.30% on this one
my second trade is still oopenā¦just triggered a long on USD/CAD at 1.0258
Target is 1.0296
Stop is 1.0230
risking 0.2%
hereās the pic
Uploaded with ImageShack.us
So, current profit so far today is 0.59%, and depending on how this USD/CAD trade works outā¦ iāll either make about 0.87%, or iāll make 0.39%
Either wayā¦another decent day WIll update totals tomorrow. now going to bed.
Jay
Ok, so the usd/cad trade stopped out. Ended up making 0.39% yesterday. 3 trades, 2 winners, 1 loser:
66% winners
0.39% profit
Yet another day that if Iād risked 1% on each trade, I would have made over 1%.
Also, I have now started to compound my profits based on each previous dayās account size, rather than sticking to the same account size each week.
[B]Currently, my account with regards to this thread is now: $1,011.42[/B] - up a little over 1% in 13 trading days.
Still pretty bad. However, this result does not reflect what I feel is a accurate picture. Had I been risking a flat 1% per trade for the last 13 trading days, I would be up over 10%.
I will continue to scale up my risk percentage. Tonight I will be risking between 0.25-0.35% per trade.
Next week, I expect to increase this by that friday to 0.5%, pending that I can continue to have profits every day (or darn close to it.)
As of this post, I believe Iāve only had 2 losing daysā¦and one of which was fairly uncontrolled, and accounted for most of the losses. If we were to take out the best winning day, and the best losing day, and risked 1% per trade, the numbers would be even greaterā¦something along the lines of 15%-20% ROI in the last 13 trading days.
Anyway, enough āshoulda, coulda, wouldaā. I just wanted to illustrate here that in spite of the numerical results, Iām so far on track to be able to pull this off, pending i continue to scale up in my risk per trade.
Jay
Ok, now for the daily review. I will be reviewing the losing usd/cad trade from yesterday.
The reasons for this trade I am not going to go into very much, because this is a setup I donāt believe I should be sharing.
However, I will say it has to do with exotic options and orders that develop around the strike prices.
The first problem I see with this trade was that I took the trade while price was relatively high on the longer term supply/demand curve. Buying after a relatively large rise in price, as price is coming into potential resistance/supply zones,
is not generally a good idea.
So for now, I will error on the side of caution. I will take these trades only when they are not completely opposing a sup/dem zone, but I will record the opportunties as they arise, and if I see after a sample size of 20 that show it would be net profitable in the future to ignore the sup/dem curve, and take these trades anyway, then I will do so. I will continue to track the results however until I have a sample size of 100ā¦and then, I will re-evaluate at that point.
Data mining, data mining, data mining. This is how one learns what works and what doesnāt.
Jay
Hey eremarket,
Great thread. I was wondering what you are planning on scaling your risk per trade up too? Because this is a kind of psychological experiment, are you going to push your risk per trade higher then you would with one of your normal accounts? Enjoying the ride.
P.S. Donāt work to hard on this or you might burnoutā¦ and i really want to see this through to the end. Lots of good stuff here for the noob like me.
Pipā¦I am planning on scaling my risk up. weekly at least, if not daily. Eventually, I plan to push my risk to the furthest I can, based on acceptable drawdown and variance that will ensure the highest potential return that will keep me 3-4 standard deviations away from approaching Risk of Ruin.
Iām thinking this will be somewhere around 3%, based on my current win rate and return per risk on each tradeā¦but I will likely not attempt to push much over 1% for the first 6ish months or so.
I would like to be at (or near) risking 1% per trade by December 15th, when I plan to take3-4 weeks off for the holiday.
Then, by mid summer, pending all is going well, I plan on increasing my risk as I determine mathematically what is the most risk i can take to keep my trading within an acceptable level of variance, and not ever be in danger of hitting a R.O.R situation.
Hope this clears things upā¦and about working too hard, Iām sure I will do just that at some point, and then, it will give me an opportunity to streamline my plan and rules, throw out what isnāt giving me much of an increased edge, so I can maximize the return on my time invested.
A properly designed trading plan and journal is an elegent thing like that.
Jay
hello Iām new to baby pips whatās happen. $ 100 to a million DOLLARS in 100 days, 3 months 10 days, itās not impossible, you will need titanium nerves, discipline of a Buddhist monk, an a tremendous amount of wisdom, it can be done. an when your done weāll erect a monument in honor of your million bucks. ha.