Last week HSBC release a preliminary report of Chinesse PMI lower than expected and today Chinese Goverment release theirs with over the expected figure, which one mostly take markets into account?
The release of the HSBC PMI caused the markets to tank last week so my understanding is that it is already factored in in the current price actions.
However, we do not know the market’s reaction to the official PMI. Mr. Market will go where it decides to go. That means, it may help my long AUD/JPY trade or crush it in its entirety.
We’ll see when the market opens tomorrow.
The official reports are always taken more seriously since they are the reports on which the interest rates and outlook will be set.
That would be right if we didn’t speak about China. Since they don’t adopt common standards of financial reporting, we cannot check whether the official data is true of false and how it’s calculated. On the other hand HSBC is a world famous bank with established standards of calculations, and that could make their data more reliable for Western traders.
This is not the first time that there is a divergence in reports from the Chinese government and HSBC. As GM said, the official reports are what the markets care more about. You can compare it to the ADP and official BLS report in the U.S. every month.
I see your point, but of course even if the data is wrong, then it is the action of the chinese officials that matters, and they usually act on their own data, not other peoples.