Hi guys! I’ll be re-posting all of my trade ideas on GBP/USD in this thread from my blog, The Loonie Adventures of a Forex Noob. Wee! I’m so excited to hear your thoughts about them.
XOXO,
Huck
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Is there anything sexier than a breakout? A breakout setup, I mean! I spotted one on GBP/USD and I have to say I’m smitten. Today, I’m buying GBP/USD!
Trade Idea: 2012-7-19 00:10
Similar to the EUR/USD setup that Big Pippin pointed out in his Daily Chart Art, there’s also an ascending triangle on GBP/USD in the hourly time frame. The pair has been making higher lows since the start of the week but hasn’t been able to close above 1.5670.
I’ve learned in the School of Pipsology that this is usually taken as a bullish pattern, so I’m going long! But I’m going to wait for the pair to make a new high first, just to be safe.
My plan is to go long at 1.5690 (above Tuesday’s high). If I get triggered, I’ll take profit on half of my position at June’s high around 1.5780 and let the remainder ride the trend. (Hopefully, it rallies back up to 1.6000!) I’ll place my stop at 1.5600, below support at the rising trend line.
The fundamentals also line up. In the most recent MPC Meeting Minutes, it was revealed that the vote to extend the central bank’s asset purchase program was NOT unanimous.
It was actually 7-2, with Spencer Dale and Ben Broadbent opting to keep the program at 325 billion GBP. The split decision was in sharp contrast to the last two occasions when the decision to ease was unanimous.
I think the upcoming retail sales report will serve as the catalyst for the breakout. If it comes in better-than-expected, we could see the pair rally strongly and break through major resistance levels.
To recap, I plan on buying GBP/USD at 1.5690, SL at 1.5600, PT1 1.5780, PT2 1.6000, 1% risk. Risk disclosure.
Is there anything sexier than a breakout? A breakout setup, I mean! I spotted one on GBP/USD and I have to say I’m smitten. Today, I’m buying GBP/USD!
Similar to the EUR/USD setup that Big Pippin pointed out in his Daily Chart Art, there’s also an ascending triangle on GBP/USD in the hourly time frame. The pair has been making higher lows since the start of the week but hasn’t been able to close above 1.5670.
I’ve learned in the School of Pipsology that this is usually taken as a bullish pattern, so I’m going long! But I’m going to wait for the pair to make a new high first, just to be safe.
My plan is to go long at 1.5690 (above Tuesday’s high). If I get triggered, I’ll take profit on half of my position at June’s high around 1.5780 and let the remainder ride the trend. (Hopefully, it rallies back up to 1.6000!) I’ll place my stop at 1.5600, below support at the rising trend line.
The fundamentals also line up. In the most recent MPC Meeting Minutes, it was revealed that the vote to extend the central bank’s asset purchase program was NOT unanimous.
It was actually 7-2, with Spencer Dale and Ben Broadbent opting to keep the program at 325 billion GBP. The split decision was in sharp contrast to the last two occasions when the decision to ease was unanimous.
I think the upcoming retail sales report will serve as the catalyst for the breakout. If it comes in better-than-expected, we could see the pair rally strongly and break through major resistance levels.
To recap, I plan on buying GBP/USD at 1.5690, SL at 1.5600, PT1 1.5780, PT2 1.6000, 1% risk. Risk disclosure.
XOXO,
Huck
Cross-posted from my blog, The Loonie Adventures of a Forex Noob
My trade just got triggered at 1.5690!
I just moved my stop from 1.5600 to 1.5620. Keeping it open over the weekend!
The long GBP/USD trade that I took last week closed as a loser!
It seems that my prayers were heard and GBP/USD was able to trade past resistance around 1.5670, triggering my orders to go long at 1.5690.
The U.K. retail sales report came in worse-than-expected but I chose to keep my trade open after finding out that bad weather weighed down consumer spending during the month. I adjusted my stop to 1.5620 from 1.5600 though. And boy am I happy that I did!
Risk aversion brought about by concerns from the euro zone kicked in on Friday. Consequently, higher-yielding currencies, including the pound, traded lower and stopped out my trade.
Long GBP/USD at 1.5690: stopped out at 1.5620, -1%/ -70 pips
I’ve been wrong a lot lately, so this time I’m gonna play it safe. My account has taken a hit with three straight losses. But hopefully, this time around, I’ll be able to score a win
My plan is to buy GBP/USD. If you zoom out to the 4-hour timeframe, you’ll actually see the pair making higher lows. A rising trend line also becomes apparent when you connect them. I’m anticipating the pair to find some support at it, around 1.5500.
But I don’t want to get ahead of myself so I won’t pull the trigger until I see reversal candlesticks materialize around the psychological handle. I have the candlestick cheat sheet from the School of Pipsology printed so I know what to look for!
Another reason I’m very cautious on going long is because of the Bank of England (BOE)'s interest rate decision later. It’s widely expected that the central bank will hold rates at 0.50% and hold off on any additional stimulus measures.
If the BOE doesn’t say anything bearish and drops clues that its quantitative easing program is working, the pound could rally. On the other hand, if the central bank shows concern on the economy, the pound could sell-off again. I think anything can happen really!
In any case, if I do decide to buy the pair, I’ll set my stop well below its most recent low at 1.5440. Should price go down to this level, my trade idea would already be invalidated as it would mean that support at the trend line failed. As for my profit target, I’ll be aiming for the resistance area around 1.5720.
To recap, my plan is to:
Buy GBP/USD at 1.5500, SL at 1.5440, PT at 1.5720. Risk 1%. Risk disclosure.
XOXO,
Huck
As for my GBP/USD trade idea, I wasn’t able to take it. Yeah, I missed the rally on the pair but I’m not beating up myself for it.
I stuck to my plan. I had my eyes peeled for dojis and bullish marubozus but they didn’t form so I didn’t pull the trigger. On top of that, the BOE and ECB rate decisions also failed to boost the pound.
There’s no use in sulking about missing the boat on GBP/USD. After all, today’s the start of a brand new week and I’m hopeful it will be better than the last.
How did you do? Lemme know!
MPC meeting minutes and UK employment due for the GBP today. Are they gonna be game-changers for GBP/USD? Lemme know what you think!
I am also watching the 1.5720 level for a possible short. But we ll need a strong catalyst to push the pair that high today.
Maybe the U.K. retail sales report? It barely budged when the employment and MPC meeting minutes were released yesterday 
Trade Idea: 2012-8-15 23:48
Although my swing trade on EUR/USD (I closed it at breakeven) didn’t turn out as well as I hoped it would, that’s not keeping me from considering another swing trade. This time though, I’m looking at GBP/USD. But before anything else, I gotta give Big Pippin’ a shout out as big as his do for this trade idea which he featured in today’s Chart Art.
An ascending triangle has materialized on GBP/USD with the pair making higher lows but constantly getting rejected around the 1.5730 area. I know that the chart pattern is usually taken as a bullish signal. However, the past two candles have closed as dojis and have made me reconsider buying the pair.
So this is what I’m going to do: WAIT. I will sit on the sidelines and wait for confirmation before pulling the trigger. My plan is to go long once a bullish marubozu closes above the resistance level (around 1.5750) but I will short the pair once I see that support at the rising trend line has been broken.
The upcoming U.K. retail sales will probably determine where the pair will go. After all, historically speaking, price action tends to have a positive correlation with the results.
If the U.K. retail sales comes in better than expected, the ascending triangle will probably break out to the upside. On the other hand, if it comes in worse than expected, resistance will most likely hold and GBP/USD will sell off.
In any case, I’m prepared for both scenarios. I’ll be sure to update ya’ll through my Facebook, Twitter, and Google Plus accounts on what I’ve decided to do.
My trade on GBP/USD didn’t get triggered. As I promised in my trade post, I would go long if the pair closed around 1.5750. But it looks like the pair is taking it’s sweet, sweet time. It’s still lingering around the resistance level at 1.5730.
I still think that this is a valid setup. So I will be keeping a close eye on the pair. If the fundamentals and market sentiment still line up, I might just be able to take this trade this week.
It looks like GBP/USD closed above resistance around 1.5725. What do you think? Breakout or fakeout?
There is a strong turbulence between GPB / USD, probably the dollar rises (and the euro falls). Now remains to see how far…
I’m hoping to bounce back from my loss last week with this trade on GBP/USD. I spotted setups on both the daily and hourly timeframes. Are you with me on this?
I fell head over heels for this setup on GBP/USD almost as soon as I laid eyes on it. On the daily time frame, the pair has formed reversal candlesticks around its previous high, suggesting that it will soon trade lower.
I then zoomed in to the hourly time frame. To my surprise, I spotted another bearish setup that made GBP/USD look even sexier! Price is slowly creeping higher and it looks like it would soon test resistance at 1.6270. If the pair finds resistance there again, we’ll see a head and shoulders chart pattern–a formation that is widely considered bearish.
Should my trade get triggered, I’ll place my stop at 1.6325. I believe it’s a good area to consider my trade as invalidated as it’s well above last week’s high. I plan on taking profit on half of my position at 1.6170. As for the other half, I will keep it open until the downtrend lasts.
Fundamentally, it seems that we’re seeing a return to economics. Market participants are starting to realize that the all the stimulus measures that central banks from all over the world are nothing to be happy about. They were started because the economy was in the dumps, and that’s not something to be optimistic about.
The Bank of England (BOE) meeeting minutes released last week also showed that the central bank is open to further easing if the economy further deteriorates or doesn’t get better. As we have seen in the past, quantitative easing has been bearish for the pound.
Finally, I think that the rally in risky assets like the pound is severely overdone. The market will have to correct itself soon.
Here’s my game plan again:
Short GBP/USD at 1.6270, stop at 1.6325, PT1 at 1.6170, PT2 yet to be determined. Risk disclosure.
XOXO,
Huck
Its not triggered yet
I’ve taken my sweet time on the sidelines, not taking any trades on my discretionary account for the past few weeks. However, I have to admit, I fell head over heels for this simple Fibonacci setup on GBP/USD.
The pair has been slowly creeping higher for the past few trading days. I intend on getting in on the rally by jumping in on the pullback. I’m anticipating the pair to find support around the 38.2% Fib level at 1. 5940. As soon as reversal candlesticks materialize, you can be sure that I’ll be ready to pull the trigger!
Fundamentally, I think my trade also makes sense. For one, the recently released Bank of England Meeting Minutes showed that the central bank policymakers were unwilling to increase stimulus or make any rate hikes in the foreseeable future.
This is bullish for the pound as it means that many traders could start reversing their earlier short positions that bet on further easing.
No more economic releases from U.K. for the rest of the week, so market sentiment will also probably play a vital role in the pound’s price action.
To recap, here’s what I’m going to do:
Long GBP/USD at 1.5940, SL at 1.5880 (below yesterday’s low), PT 1 at 1.6010, PT 2 at 1.6140. 1% risk. Risk disclosure.
XOXO,
Huck
As you can see, a very clear bullish flag has formed on Cable’s 4-hour chart. Bullish flags are usually considered as continuation patterns. After a strong move up, price stalls and consolidates as buyers take a moment to catch their breaths before staging another bullish rally.
Given this, and the overall medium-term uptrend, I’m thinking of jumping in long once price closes above the most recent high. I’ve set a buy stop order at 1.6060 with a profit target yet to be determined. As for my stop, I’ve set a 70-pip trailing stop, which is roughly equal to Cable’s 20-day Daily Average True Range (ATR).
On the fundamental side of things, the revised GDP report for Q3 2012 will be released later. I don’t know if we’ll see any upward revision from the initial reading. However, I want to be ready should that happen.
It also seems that the U.S. fiscal cliff is once again creeping back into market headlines. I’m expecting this to weigh on the dollar in the coming trading days, potentially giving GBP/USD a boost.
To recap, here are the details of my trade:
Buy GBP/USD at 1.6060, stop at 1.5990 (trailing), profit target to be determined. 1% risk. Risk disclosure.
Wish me luck?
XOXO,
Huck
Since the Trend-Catcher has done so well on EUR/USD, I couldn’t help but wonder how it would fare on GBP/USD. This is why, from now on, I’ll include an update on the pair every week too!
It would seem that it was off to a slow start last week. Here’s a breakdown of the signals that materialized:
- Invalid signal since RSI wasn’t below 50.
- Invalid signal since RSI didn’t cross above 50.
- Invalid signal since RSI wasn’t below 50.
- Long at 1.6064. Closed due to new crossover at 1.6048. -4 pips.
Total Gain/Loss in Pips: -4 pips