Hurricane Sandy

Anyone else looking to see how this affects the market? Like a sharp fall in the DJIA? Whether oil refinerys are hit? How it affects the dollar? If weaker dollar could push up european indexs and create a surge in gold?

Any thoughts?

Yup I am for sure. But its the end of a profitable month for me so I’ll be playing defense. Sometimes a good defense is your best offense.

But, then again a good offense can be the best defense. :slight_smile:

True true. Sometimes too much offense can lead to greater losses. The key is to know when to attack and when to throttle back.

Yupp i think so that this Hurricane sandy could be a little bearish for the Dollar and it could push riskier assets higher.You see?? a little bit of risk sentiment can be observed in the markets.

I see it quite the contrary. I see this could be bullish for the dollar. With the destruction in NY floor traders are not going to be in a position to take risks right now. They are going to have to cash out some of those investments to free up cash to take care of themselves right now. Right now these people do not need stocks they need cash lots of it increasing the demand for USD. Higher demand for USD and no position for risk taking = bullish dollar.

Probably be back trading tomorrow, been a mess from Sandy plus didn’t want to risk any of my P&L for the month of Oct.

I do appreciate your opinion but i feel due to this Hurricane sandy USD might lose it’s safe heaven appeal which could attract the traders to other safe heaven currencies.Haven’t you heard about the Chinese Yuan?CNY/USD has recently touched it’s record high.CNY is not traded in Forex(Otherwise it could be best these days) so traders could change their bias towards some riskier assets!

and I am not saying your opinion is wrong. Just living in florida for most of my life I have been through many hurricanes. Most of which would make Sandy look like a thunderstorm. The one thing that stands Sandy out is the size of it not the destruction. I have seen that before many times and one thing I know about being in that situation is money is going to be your best friend. I am not talking money in number form on a screen somewhere but liquid cash in hand. That is really there only chance of surviving this. Then in comes the insurance companies to pay up those that have policies. they are not doing that with numbers on a screen but with checks that are going to be traded for liquid cash to rebuild. All this will cause a demand for dollars. I know what they are going through and I pray for them. It i not a pretty thing to rebuild your whole life back up. They are cold and hungry which can be fixed with some $$$$. But its hard to get that cash when ATM machines are down due to no power and your car is destroyed due to floods you cant get far.

Now what would support you theory that it would be bearish on the dollar is I am starting to hear rumors the US government is going to pay 100% of the bill to rebuild NJ and NY if thats the case then we will just print the money and yes that will be bearish on the dollar. Here in florida its the state thats foots most of the bill costing the US little. But then its not like many in NY carry hurricane insurance.

The tsunami in japan comes to mind. The BOJ tryied to keep there dollor low and still could not do it.

It makes sense that the demand for the USD is gonna be increased a lot and which could be bullish for the dollar,but what i thought was that during times of crisis investors always look for the safe heaven assets.Is it gonna be CNY?No…Is it gonna be Gold…May be?Is it gonna be JPY?
If it’s Gold that it’s gonna trigger risk sentiment in the markets.You must be aware of the Gold/Euro correlation.If it’s JPY and USD than you are right that it’s gonna be bullish for the dollar.
Whatever happens i am sure that a violent breakout is coming soon in the markets and it’ll decide the fate of US dollar.

Thats sounds about right. I guess there is only one way to find out. Good luck to you

Anyone interested in checking out the EA/algorithm let me know and I can shoot you a link to the screenshare.