I haven’t seen markets work the way you describe.
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@babygogo Pretty much has got it in one how these markets work… If you can devise the formula for the instrument you are trading’s correct price then profiting from these markets is much simpler…
Now it could be the SMA50/100/200 level on the 4 hour TF, the Daily TF even the Weekly TF… Or whatever strategy, Indicator or level that gives a repeatable reliable correct price result…
Consumers apply arbitrage concepts every day of their lives… Fuel, Clothes, Food etc… When anyone is silly enough to ask me how do you work out where price is going, I use the analogy below…
You walk into your local supermarket each week to buy your 2 litres of Milk… Shopping each week, you know that 2 litres of Milk is usually $3.85, let’s say the correct price…
Last week it was on special for $2.75… So, you bought 2 x 2 litres because it was cheap… This week it is $4.50… So, if you don’t need it you don’t buy it… You’ll Buy it when it’s the correct price or lower…
Now, here’s where non market participants eyes glaze over…
What if you had the ability to Sell the 2 litres of Milk back to your supermarket… The 2 litres that you purchased last week for $2.75 is now cheap at $4.00 against this week’s $4.50 price tag…
And arbitrage works exactly the same in these markets with the same external market forces working on the price of each commodity, currency, even your 2 litres of Milk…
Less Milk… Higher Prices… More Milk… Lower Prices…
Below is 12 months of NASDAQ (NAS100 D1 Chart), blue line is the SMA200…
Below is 12 months of Dow Jones (US30 D1 Chart), blue line is the SMA200…
Long Term… Could you trade these successfully if you knew the correct price…???
When you said that you were doing fine, but after that it was straight downhill it was a complete fall right off of a cliff.
The one single problem in trading is figuring out if the price is going up or if the price is going down and it has nothing to do with history prices.
Figuring out how to do that is entirely your problem and it is my problem but it is not our problem this is not a charitable business.
I’m not trying to be rude I am telling You The facts of Life when it comes to trading
Whenever anyone offers to tell you how to win at trading they’re probably blowing smoke up your skirt
I’m not sure I understand that at all. I think this refers to setting a limit order so you can buy at a low price, before price goes up further.
If the current price of an instrument is X, but you know that the correct price is Y…
if(X<Y) buy(): else sell();
Note:the value of Y changes faster than does the value of X, but on a few rare occasions X actually moves faster than Y.
Let’s ignore your first post of arrogant newbie buffoonery…
The formula you provide… X = Current Price, or MA1 and Y= MA200…
Ok @babygogo Lets pull some of your Psycho babble apart…
So, according to you… The MA200 (Y) changes faster than does the value of the Current Price/MA1 (X)…
But on a few rare occasions Current Price/MA1 (X) actually moves faster than the MA200 (Y)…
“The moving averages with shorter durations are known as fast moving averages and are faster to respond to a change in trend…”
You should think a little more deeply before you post here… Your 75k won’t last very long…
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I was thinking about your problem…Just to be direct…
It’s time to suck it up, put on your big boy pants, and march forward.
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Hi Ethan,
It appears to me that you are feeling frustrated and overwhelmed. Would you like to share what you are feeling frustrated and overwhelmed about?
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in trading, there is only one thing to be frustrated about.
answer: losing.
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Forex trading is an endeavor that involves losses as well as gains. It is natural to feel DISAPPOINTED when a trade ends in a LOSS, but it is important to understand that losses are an inevitable part of the game. Often, the sadness that comes with losing a trade can be attributed to unrealistic expectations, whether they are conscious or subconscious. To manage this, traders can use the formula of expectation= win rate ($win amount) - win rate ($loss amount) to gain perspective.
For example, if a trader has a win rate of 65% with a profit of $500 per win and a loss rate of 35% with a loss of $500 per loss, the trader’s EXPECTATION would be:
Expectation = win rate (+$amt) - win rate (-$amt)
Expectation = 0.65 ($500) - 0.35 ($500)
Expectation = $325 - $175
Expectation = $150
This means that, over the long term, the trader should make an average profit of $1500 after 10 trades, despite the INEVITABLE losses that will occur. By keeping this expectation in mind, traders can focus on their overall profitability and not be DISHEARTENED by any individual losses they may experience.
i was referring to “overall” losses. yes, there will be some trades that produce positive profit and others that make negative profit, but… when i say that losing is the only problem in trading or gambling, i am suggesting that your equity goes down over time instead of increasing.
Following are the exact and only steps that may be followed to create a complete trading system:
(a)
by looking at our charts, we all know the current price(CURPRICE)…
(b)
by developing some kind of trading method or system, we attempt to figure out what is the correct target price(TARGPRICE).
(c)
//pseudo code
if(CURPRICE<TARGPRICE)
{
buy();
}
else
{
sell();
}
If equity goes down over time,
it’s important for traders to assess
- methodology
- risk management
so as to determine the cause of their losses.
Negative Expectation only means
- erroneus methodology / risk management
- poor execution due to lack of discipline
Well, I think you gave him a great lesson on why he should not give up.
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Hmm, maybe you’re right.
I guess everyone who’s new to this when get exposed to all of these resources and information feel frustrated. It not just me. but so many people give up.
Thanks mate. I’ll keep it in mind. It’s great to get all of these advices!
Wow man! that hit hard. Thank you! 
Interesting. What is the best mindset for a trader?
Exactly.
In US, it take 4 years of college, 4 years of medical school and 4 years of residency. Even after all that, some are QUACKS. 
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Stick to the plan
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