I started a month ago to learn about forex (I started to learn about investing months before that), forex was the love with the first sight.
However, things have got a little out of hand. Interestingly, coming with a system that can work most of the time is very hard. The market doesn’t have a behaviour, and so pattern recognition is meaningless (that’s my current idea on the market). Momentum strategies seem more appealing, however, they are still weak and unpredictable. SMA Crossovers, or MACD both seem to rely on trends, while sudden movements (like the one after BOJ) are extremely common in pairs. Reversal are also not trust worthy, I thought, at first, maybe, give a huge push to the market (imagining the market as a string) there should be a sudden reverse but this doesn’t happen all the time and if it does the time frame (or bar) of the reversal from the actual push is not clearly defined.
Therefore, as of now I think fundamental trading is the way to go. News play a huge rule in forex, because major banks care about the news. However, interpreting the news is not a one man job.
However, I was wondering what percentage of return can an average forex trader expect?
I know the best hedge funds return something around 20% (if they REALLY DO as most don’t), therefore something like 2% monthly return is above the market. This means if one person can earn a steady 20 dollar from a 1000 principle, he’s beating the market already. To me on a 1:10 leveraged system, many people think it’s easy to get to that point, however, most of strategic movements I’ve made, has NOT lead to such an outcome! I was wondering if anyone has been able to have a yearly return( I know one can earn a lot in day) but I’m interested in a annual average of 30% or more! on an account with 100k or more principle.