25 pips on trade 33. Thanks Horlique and have a good weekend.
[QUOTE=“Horlique2;513825”]TRADING OUTLOOK FOR 29TH JULY TO 2ND AUGUST 2013
Next week is a very busy week for news traders, and technical traders have to be aware of these economic releases to avoid severe losses.
ok lets have some interesting look at some important pairs as the closed yesterday.
- Eurusd: This pair formed a nice bullish signal outside the resistance zone of 1.31774- 1.32400, and this bullish signal indicate much upward movement to may be
1.34000 the next key resistance point, so watch out.
2)Gbpusd: This pair formed a spinning top just below the key psychological level 1.54000 so if price open below this 1.54000 level price may move down to atleast
1.53000, but if price open above this level we may see a little upward movement.
- AUDusd; This pair formed a bearish signal at key resistance zone 0.93000-0.93350. so we expect price to move down on sunday open depending where price will
open on that sunday.
- Gbpaud and euraud; Not much activity on these pairs but we will watch them closely.
5)nzdusd: This pair formed an indecision candle on friday close indicating a move downward to may 0.80000(a strong psychological point), so we will watch this closely
on sunday open.
- Goldusd: This pairs formed a powerful pin bar close to the resistance point 1348.300 so depending where the markets open on sunday we expect price to kiss the
1348.300 before rocking down.
==============================================================================================================================================================
have a nice weekend please tell others about this thread so they can benefits too, dont be greedy. lol hahahaha.
I hope you guys love the thread.[/QUOTE]
Will appreciate if you can tell me about USD/JPY … I have an open trades in it…
I would appreciate your input on USD/JPY pair too, because I have open trade (long) on that since yesterday
USDJPY : I’d say good chance of retracement to 98.50 before deciding where to go, most likely down.
Thank you!
Any views on EURO/JPY?
I have also been long on the usd/jpy, but it has broken through the 98.50 pivot level and closed below. Should have waited for clear 4 hour close and saved myself some money.
I exited the trade with a loss. As adnanusman said, I expect a retrace to 98.5, then I will wait this time for clues on which direction it will go.
P3UH thank you for your input.
Do you have any views on EURO/JPY as well?
I dont trade yen pairs any longer but i will look at it later and give you guys my opinion.
Thank you very much I will be expecting it!
[B][I][U]For those that wanted an analysis on the yen pairs cos i have stopped trading the yen pairs due to it instability. first i will start with the popular one:[/U][/I][/B]
[B]1) USDJPY: [/B] After forming very funny candle formations the market has been in a trading range of 101.500-98.000 for almost a month , but price closed above the 98.000-97.000 mark which is the near term support, so if price open above 98.000 on sunday open we will expect price to move up to atleast 100.000 and if price open below the 98.000 mark the bears may take control.
[B]2) EURJPY:[/B] Seriously this pair is unique for forming crazy candle formation.The nearest resistance is 132.500 and price has closed above 130.000 a powerful psychological point ,if price open on sunday above this 130.000 we may expect price to move up to 132.500 but if price opens below this psychological level we should expect price to hit 128.000 being the next key support.
[B]3) GBPJPY: [/B] The nearest resistance point on this market is at 154.000 price sold-off agressively from this level and price bounce off a key psychological level at 150.900 so if price open above 150.900 on sunday open we may expect price to move gently to atleast 152.875 but if price close below 150.900 we should expect price to move closer to 148.900 being the next visible support.
[B]NOTE: To be very honest i dont trade the yen pairs again and do not advise any trader to be trading the yen pairs cos these pairs are very unstable.[/B]
[B]Who is Paul Tudor Jones?[/B]
Paul Tudor Jones is the founder of Tudor Investment Corporation, an umbrella corporation for various hedge funds that are so successful that he is able to charge more than the standard 2/20 fee structure that most “normal” hedge funds are able to charge (2% of the assets under management as the management fee and 20% of the profits). Tudor Investment Corp. charges a 4% management fee and keeps 23% of the profits.
Some of his other achievements include registering a 62% return in the month of October 1987, the same month as Black Tuesday, one of the most devastating market crashes in history. He also has achieved returns over 100% for five consecutive years and has thus far suffered only one down year in his professional investing career.
He is also profiled by PBS in Trader: The Documentary which features an inside look at Jones and Tudor Investment Corporation in the months prior to October 1987.
Jones is one of the more well known traders interviewed in Market Wizards, and I personally thought that his interview responses were extremely informative and helpful to me. I strongly recommend absorbing the wisdom contained in the following curated interview questions and responses.
[B]On changing one’s position quickly and decisively:[/B]
There was insufficient time to complete the interview at our first meeting. I returned about two weeks later. Two things were notable about this second meeting. First, whereas he had been strongly bearish and heavily short the stock market at the time of our first conversation, jones’ short-term opinion on the stock market had shifted to bullish in the interim. The failure of the stock market to follow through on the downside at the price and time he had anticipated convinced him that the market was headed higher for the short term.
“This market is sold out,” he emphasized at our second meeting. This 180-degree shift in opinion within a short time span exemplified the extreme flexibility that underlies Jones’ trading success. He not only quickly abandoned his original position, but was willing to join the other side once the evidence indicated his initial projection was wrong.
[B]
On contrarian thinking:[/B]
By watching Eli, I learned that even though markets look their very best when they are setting new highs, that is often the best time to sell. He instilled to me the idea that, to some extent, to be a good trader, you have to be a contrarian.
[B]Never overtrade:[/B]
First of all, never play macho man with the market. Second, never overtrade. My major problem was not the number of points I lost on the trade, but that I was trading far too many contracts relative to the equity in the accounts that I handled. My accounts lost something like 60 to 70 percent of their equity in that single trade.
[B]Did your trading style change radically from that point on?[/B]
Yes. Now I spend my day trying to make myself as happy and relaxed as I can be. If I have positions going against me, I get right out; if they are going for me, I keep them.
[B]I guess you not only started trading smaller, but also quicker?[/B]
Quicker and more defensive. I am always thinking about losing money as opposed to making money. Back then, in that cotton trade, I had a vision of July going to 89 cents and I thought about all the money I was going to make on 400 contracts. I didn’t think about what I could lose.
[B]How much do you risk on any single trade?[/B]
I don’t break it down trade by trade. All the trades I have on are interrelated. I look at it in terms of what my equity is each morning. My goal is to finish each day with more than I started. Tomorrow morning I will not walk in and say, “I am short the S&P from 264 and it closed at 257 yesterday; therefore, I can stand a rally.” I always think of it in terms of being short from the previous night’s close.
Risk control is the most important thing in trading. For example, right now I am down about 6.5 percent for the month. I have a 3.5 percent stop on my equity for the rest of the month. I want to make sure that I never have a double-digit loss in any month.
[B]One aspect of your trading style is a contrarian attempt to buy and sell turning points. Let’s say you are looking for a top and go short with a close stop when the market reaches a new high. You then get stopped out. On a single trade idea, how many times will you try to pick a turning point before you give up?[/B]
Until I change my mind, fundamentally. Otherwise, I will keep cutting my position size down as I have losing trades. When I am trading poorly, I keep reducing my position size. That way, I will be trading my smallest position size when my trading is worst.
[B]What are the trading rules you live by?[/B]
Don’t ever average losers. Decrease your trading volume when you are trading volume; increase your volume when you are trading well. Never trade in situations where you don’t have control. For example, I don’t risk significant amounts of money in front of key reports, since that is gambling, not trading.
If you have a losing position that is making you uncomfortable, the solution is very simple: Get out, because you can always get back in. There is nothing better than a fresh start.
Don’t be too concerned about where you got into a position. The only relevant question is whether you are bullish or bearish on the position that day. Always think of your entry point as last night’s close. I can always tell a rookie trader because he will ask me, “Are you short or long?” Where I am long or short should have no bearing on his market opinion. Next he will ask (assuming I have told him I am long), “Where are you long from?” Who cares where I am long from. That has no relevance to whether the market environment is bullish or bearish right now, or to the risk/reward balance of a long position at that moment.
The most important rule of trading is to play great defense, not great offense. Every day I assumed ever position I have is wrong. I know where my stop risk points are going to be. I do that so I can define my maximum possible drawdown. Hopefully, I spend the rest of the day enjoying positions that are going in my direction. If they are going against me, then I have a game plan for getting out.
Don’t be a hero. Don’t have an ego. Always question yourself and your ability. Don’t ever feel that you are very good. The second you do, you are dead.
Jesse Livermore, one of the greatest speculators of all time, reportedly said that, in the long run, you can’t ever win trading markets. That was a devastating quote for someone like me, just getting into the business. The idea that you can’t beat the markets is a frightening prospect. That is why my guiding philosophy is playing great defense. If you make a good trade, don’t think it is because you have some uncanny foresight. Always maintain your sense of confidence, but keep it in check.
[B]But you have been very successful for years. Aren’t you more confident now than you were before?[/B]
I am more scared now than I was at any point since I began trading, because I recognize how ephemeral success can be in this business. I know that to be successful, I have to be frightened. My biggest hits have always come after I have had a great period and I started to think that I knew something.
[B]My impression is that you often implement positions near market turns. Sometimes your precision has been uncanny. What is it about your decision-making process that allows you to get in so close to the turns?[/B]
I have very strong views of the long-run direction of all markets. I also have a very short-term horizon for pain. As a result, frequently, I may try repeated trades from the long side over a period of weeks in a market which continues to move lower.
[B]Is it a matter of doing a series of probes until you finally hit it?[/B]
Exactly. I consider myself a premier market opportunist. That means I develop an idea on the market and pursue it from a very-low-risk standpoint until I have repeatedly been proven wrong, or until I change my viewpoint.
[B]In other words, it makes a better story to say, “Paul Jones buys the T-bond market 2 ticks from the low,” rather than, “On his fifth try, Paul Jones buys the T-bond market 2 ticks from its low.”[/B]
I think that is certainly part of it. The other part is that I have always been a swing trader, meaning that I believe the very best money is to be made at the market turns. Everyone says you get killed trying to pick tops and bottoms and you make all the money by catching the trends in the middle. Well, for twelve years, I have often been missing the meat in the middle, but I have caught a lot of bottoms and tops.
If you are a trend follower trying to catch the profits in the middle of a move, you have to use very wide stops. I’m not comfortable doing that. Also, markets trend only about 15 percent of the time; the rest of the time they move sideways.
[B]What is the most prominent fallacy in the public’s perception about markets?[/B]
That markets can be manipulated. That there is some group on Wall Street that controls price action in the markets. I can go into any market and create a stir for a day or two, maybe even a week. If I go into a market at just the right moment, by giving it a little gas on the upside, I can create the illusion of a bull market. But, unless the market is really sound, the second I stop buying, the price is going to come right down. You can open the most beautiful Saks Fight Avenue in Anchorage, Alaska, with a wonderful summer menswear department, but unless somebody wants to buy the clothes, you will go broke.
[B]What other misconceptions do people have about the markets?[/B]
The idea that people affiliated with Wall Street know something. My mother is a classic example. She watches “Wall Street Week” and she takes everything they say with almost a religious fervor. I would bet that you could probably fade “Wall Street Week.”
[B]How do you keep all these other opinions from confusing your own vision? Let’s say you are bearish on a market and 75 percent of the people you talk to about that market are bullish. What do you do?
[/B]
I wait. I will give you a perfect example. Until last Wednesday, I had been bearish on crude oil, while it was in the midst of a $2 advance. The best crude oil trader I know was bullish during that period. Because he was bullish, I never went short. Then the market started to stall and one day he said, “ I think I am going to go flat here.” I knew that instant – particularly, given the fact that bullish news was coming out of OPEC right at that time – that crude oil was a low-risk short. I sold the hell out of it, and it turned out to be a great trade.
[B]Very few traders have reached your level of achievement. What makes you different?[/B]
I think one of my strengths is that I view anything that has happened up to the present point in time as history. I really don’t care about the mistake I made three seconds ago in the market. What I care about is what I am going to do from the next moment on. I try to avoid any emotional attachment to a market. I avoid letting my trading opinions be influenced by comments I may have made on the record about a market.
[B]No loyalty to position is obviously an important element in your trading.[/B]
It is important because it gives you a wide open intellectual horizon to figure out what is really happening. It allows you to come in with a completely clean slate in choosing the correct forecast for that particular market.
[B]You have been both a broker and a money manager. How do you compare the relative advantages and disadvantages of these two jobs?[/B]
I got out of the brokerage business because I felt there was a gross conflict of interest: If you are charging a client commissions and he loses money, you aren’t penalized. I went into the money management business because if I lost money, I wanted to be able to say that I had not gotten compensated for it. In fact, it would probably cost me a bundle because I have an overhead that would knock out the Bronx Zoo. I never apologize to anybody, because I don’t get paid unless I win.
[B]Do you keep your money in your own funds?[/B]
I would say that 85 percent of my net worth is invested in my own funds, primarily because I believe that is the safest place in the world for it. I really believe that I am going to be so defensive and conservative that I will get my money back.
[B]On the importance of using a time stop:[/B]
One of the things that Tullish taught me was the importance of time. When I trade, I don’t just use a price stop, I also use a time stop. If I think a market should break, and it doesn’t, I will often get out even if I am not losing any money.
[B]Some of your preliminary comments before the start of our interview today make it sound like you are paranoid because of your success.[/B]
If the misery in this country gets deep enough, the perception is going to be that we did well as a trading firm, while other people were hurt, because we had some knowledge. It is not that we had any unfair knowledge that other people didn’t have, it is just that we did our homework. People just don’t want to believe that anyone can break away from the crowd and rise above mediocrity.
[B]Is the positive intensity of winning as strong as the pain of losing?[/B]
There is nothing worse than a bad trading day. You feel so low that it is difficult to hold your head up. But if I knew that I could also have a similar experience in the exhilaration of winning, I would take the combination of winning and losing days any time because you feel that much more alive. Trading gives you an incredibly intense feeling of what life is all about. Emotionally, you live on the extremes.
[B]What is the most important advice you could give the average trader?[/B]
Don’t focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have.
This Article is culled from Curated Interview With Paul Tudor Jones From Market Wizards | Curated Alpha
good one lets continue pipping next week.
Thank you very much HORLIQUE2!
happy sunday to all Christians and everyone, i hope you guys had a nice weekend. This new week comes with lots of economic releases/news/reports so one has to be very careful when taking trades, please always take a look at forexfactory calender or any reliable economic news calender so that you wont be caught up in the cross-fire . You stop loss should be your best friend.
For records purposes; so far we have made 33 trades==== 25wins 8losses. Within these 25 wins we have made 10 home runs(thats trade that gives us atleast 2times reward like 100pips and above).
So statistically and financially we are doing very good risking 2% per single positions, 3% risk for more than 3 positions.
33 trades===========
25 wins
8 losses
25 wins = 10 home runs and 15 wins.
So please dont be over-confident to start risking more than the recommended risk of 2-3% per trade. Forex trading is a risky business, if we stick to this risk levels we will be able to make good money and accept losses without going crazy after a loss.
One of the reason why people start to panic when a trade goes against their position is the amount of risk taken on that position, a risk of 2% should not make one worry when a trade is going negative but when you risk more than 5% the emotional drama sets in.
Money and Risk Management is one of the important aspect of trading
Its easier to be psychologically stable after a 2-3% loss than after a 5% loss.
I know that most of us are risking more than the recommended risk, i want to plead with you that after a lose(which you’‘bet the farm’’) dont come to this thread and make negative comments please.
What destroy traders most is greed,fear and over-confident.
No matter how many winning trades we have made we should never be moved to be over-confident and start risking big cos the market is no respecter of anybody. When one go against the trading rules the market punishes alot worse than one can ever imagine.
So please be yourself no matter the trade outcome.
Horlique,
Firstly thanks for the great signals. If I could make one recommendation that would help understand your trade entries. When you post a signal could you also provide a chart screen shot of the set up of your analysis. This would be extremely helpful as new people start browsing the thread and can see past trades.
Thanks again
This is so true horlique. I got busted big time last non farm payroll etc., and with your help I am slowly recovering.
i have many accounts am managing so its will be very difficult for me to post these signals ,place my trades and also upload a chart(with illustrations) the same time. If i do so it will lead to posting poor entry price e.g if the markets opens at 1.3200 for a sell signal before i will place my trades on my manage accounts setting stops/targets and then post the signal, price market may have moved few pips away from our ideal price this will lead to poor stops/targets placement.
So for now lets keep it at what am doing now.
Just follow the trades you will learn by looking at your chart when these signals are posted.
Wilber, read up on price action and pivot points. Then analyze horlique’s calls. That way you learn in the process, gotta do some of your own homework.