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1401

Trading outlook for 19Th August - 23th August 2013

I will start from my favourite pair
.
1) EURUSD: This pair has been moving in a range of 1.32000-1.34000. At friday close, a decent bearish rejection signal did formed close to resistance 1.34000 on the

daily chart so i expect price to move lower to 1.32000 this coming week depending on how strong the dollar will be against Euro.On the weekly chart an rejection candle

has formed on the weekly chart below key resistance point 1.34000 so this give us another good pointer to expect lower prices come this week on eurusd.

2)GBpusd: This pair did formed an indecision candle just above 1.56000 a strong psychological level, but this indecision candle is between a resistance zone 1.56500-

1.56000 so depending where markets open this sunday i expect price to move lower towards 1.54000.

3) EURaud: This pair for the past 5 trading days has been in a tight range of 1.46200-1.44450 and on the daily chart an inside bar candle did formed at 1.44450 the

near term support so i expect price to tank upward towards 1.46200 also on the 4 hours a bullish signal(inside bar). so lets see where market opens today.

4)GBpaud: This pairs did closed below 1.71400 a strong psychological point but the trend is still up on the daily chart so lets see what happens this week on this

pairs cos right now theres no clear direction-pointer on this pair.

5) NZdusd: This pair did closed below the resistance zone 0.81250-0.81000 on friday but on the weekly chart a strong bullish signal has formed just at this resistance

zone so its likely the bulls will want to breakup from this resistance zone this week, but it all depends on the strength of both nzd and usd . If price open and close

above this zone we will expect upward price.

6) AUdusd: This pair did closed below a near term faint resistance point 0.92000 so depending where the market opens today i expect market to push towards 0.93000
cos on the weekly chart a powerful bullish signal did formed at the key resistance zone but if price open below 0.92000 price may just move down gently towards 0.97000

being the nearest support point.

7) Goldusd: This pair is in a strong bullish run price did closed above 1370.000 a strong psychological point(also a strong old support point) so i expect price to

find it way towards 1417.000 this coming week, so keep an eye on any intra-day bullish signal to rejoin the upward run.

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PRAY BEFORE TRADING AND FOLLOW YOUR TRADING PLANS IRRESPECTIVE OF YOUR LAST TRADE OUTCOME.

1402

[QUOTE=Horlique2;520217]Trading outlook for 19Th August - 23th August 2013

Thanks for your analysis, any opinion on USDJPY? Looks like 50/50 to me…

1403

Fundamental says go long on USDJPY…and since the double bottom formation on the 4hr chart, its going up!

1404

hello Horlique2

Usually what time you will post the signal.Please tell me according to GMT time.I am from India…
If it you will post the signal in the night also i will put alaram and wake up…

1405

please read page 1-15 of this thread, you will get the info.

1407

We will likely sell gbpusd at the close of this 4 hours chart a powerful bearish rejection candle is about to form. So watch out.

1408

Trade 47 sell gbpusd now or sell at 1.56388

stops= 35pips

targets= 100pips

reason for trade; bearish rejection formed at resistance.

Risk 1% here.

Sell gbpau now or sell gbpaud at 1.70999

stops= 35pips

targets= 100pips

risk 1% here.

1409

Risky trade at this moment…lets wait a bit.

1410

August has been a very poor trading month for price action. Many perfect setups has ended in losses. May be wise to trade only setups on the daily chart or to pause trading till next month.

1411

Patience is a virtue :slight_smile:

1412

A double bearish rejection candle is about to form below the key resistance point 1.34100 on eurusd daily chart so we may likely sell into the nearest support 1.32000 provided these two rejection candle forms. So come around at the close of this daily candle lets make some pips.

1413

helping others is a virtue. But am sure mocking is not a virtue.

1414

Trade 48 Sell eurusd now or sell eurusd at 1.33335

stops= 45pips

targets= 100pips

reason for trade= double bearish rejection candle formed at daily resistance at 1.34000.

Please risk 2% here.

1415

Trade 48 Sell eurusd now or sell eurusd at 1.33335

stops= 45pips

targets= 100pips

reason for trade= double bearish rejection candle formed at daily resistance at 1.34000.

Please risk 2% here.

1416

Hello guys good morning. I want to advise that you should be very careful with trading in the month of august, please trade less during august to avoid great losses. The holidays in us and uk adversely causes very random/choppy price movement in the market and most time lead to much losses, thats why its good to stick with the daily chart to be able to filter most of these market noise. From my trading experiences trading on the daily chart is more profitable than trading any lower time frame(even the 4 hours can be very noisy at times).

I wish everyone trading success today.

Happy pipping.

1417

Thanks for the reminder Horlique

1418

Dear Horlique2,

Disclaimer: "I am a follower of your thread. (But I seldom trade your ideas as I normally use my own indicator when it comes to trading). And I do need to congrate you on your success in your previous trades. "

Sorry, but just want to add a comment pertaining to this posting:-

You emphasized the failure of the August trades to Holiday. But if I am not wrong, the vol (Movement) in the FX market or in fact in most of the markets (Bond, equities … etc …) are due to the fear and uncertainty caused by the tapering rumours.

Let quote a few examples"-

Your trade #48 - EUR/USD - is due to the rejection of the 1.34 resistance points. Which I seriously agreed with you. Because based on my chart, all my indicators pointed to a downtrend ( trade correction - overbought ). But in case you miss out, I notice the FOMC meeting minutes on my calendar, I believe that the whole world is waiting for the FOMC meeting minutes. Hence, even if you are right, most of the house dealers will chose to square their position ( or offload partial US position) while waiting for clearer picture. ( Under cash management, most of the FX dealer will rather protect their cash than to risk unwisely. )

Under the up-trend sentiment, your 45pip stop loss is tight. that means, even if your directional view is right, your trade will be SL before moving into the direction that you want.

Also, I noticed that your risk ratio has changed from 3 to 2. Any advices in that?

I am still trying to understand your indicator and also your risk ratio pricing.

“Price action”, “clouding - ichimoku” or “BB” indicator is good but after all, it is still tools that aid dealer in making decision. Dealer still need to price in the fear factor and also big boy direction and also upcoming event.

  • Personally for me, what I do now is to do a middle term planning. I am using the current environment to slowly accumulated some position which I think is attractive (Stag accumulation). And I used a longer SL due to the current environment. Even if I lose pips here and there, I will still be able to take the hit.

Advise - ??? You may want to rest till the outcome or release of the minutes before you start trading???

No one is always 100% correct in the trading environment, but if one is having a losing streak, the dealer may choose to take a break or slow down the trading?

Last but no least, I am still a follower of your thread and no hard feelings :).

1419

Stopped on GBP/USD

1420

almost everything you said is very correct. Thanks very much for the information…

I know that august is always a funny month for trading. The targets change is due to the low trading volume on most pairs this month, also my stops is based on price action analysis i dont do guess work when it comes to putting stops.

I also believe is wise to stick to a winning trading approach even when having losses and also wise to make changes when need arise, cos the market will always turn in your favour over time. no trading method is 100% accurate…

For anyone having a lossing run i will advise you reduce trading this period, and dont try to win back your lost profits at all cost which will result in putting pressure on your self and also please reduce your monthly profit expectations to a realistic level. There are months you will make excellent profits, there are also months you wil end in a loss or breakeven.

Thanks alot for you excellent reply/post…

1421

Stopped on EUR/USD :frowning: