Some IKH analysis of the Guppy posted on the GBP/JPY “Equity Building” system thread elsewhere on the forum:
Talk about an uneventful rangebound day, huh? Well, unless you were daytrading in what turned out to be a pretty clearly defined range - some good opportunities there to clear pips both long and short.
The bottom of the cloud (Senkou Span A) lies at 211.16 currently, while SS-A slopes down mildly to 211.02 by the 0900 ET candle. The 144 comes in for reinforcement at exactly this level, as well. This is where, if not during the increased volatility coming during early Frankfurt/London (0200-0500 ET) we will see an important test of near-term support. A break here will revisit 210.67, and then back to the ~210 area as described earlier.
Tenkan-Sen (blue line) lies above Kijun-Sen (red line) just above the cloud, but because TS takes in only 9 periods of data, the long green and long red candles from early July 07 will be falling off, and with price falling through the cloud this will pull TS down into the kumo (cloud), setting up a bearish cross if price falters through 211.
In other words, unless the bulls resume control of the field to throwback the pair to 211.68+ (and especially 212.10+), the IKH picture is creeping across the line into bearish territory. If price closes below the kumo @ 0300 ET, Tenkan-Sen will follow shortly, crossing top-down over Kijun-Sen. If nothing happens to the contrary and those lines emerge from the bottom of the cloud in the next 24-48 hours, 210.67, ~210 and perhaps even 208.94-209.20 are in the cards. There’s nothing fundamental (unless Bernanke’s speech sets off a significant USD rally) on schedule that would negate this, so any twists and turns will be technically-based.
I am short the pair from the ascending trendline (white line) break @ 211.66.