No, English only. Admittedly limited, but all the basics and some details about advanced strategies are available to us via the resources we have.
Btw: 4xStar asked in another thread, and I thought I’d be helpful to mention: those charts that I post will be most often from Oanda’s platform: daily and 3H. For the sake of continuity, I’ll try to include H4 and D1 MT4 charts at times, as well.
Oh, ok … that explains the price difference, you were on a 3 hour chart… yes H4 and D1 would be good as I think most people have access to MT4.
We’ve just had another Tenkan-Kijun bullish cross above the kumo on the G-Y, however there was a bearish cross a few hours ago … not sure how to interpret mixed signals like that or if it is just wait & see…
Oops, forgot to say I was looking at 4h timeframe for that cross. Now the tenkan is crossing the [I]rising[/I] kijun … not sure what [B]that[/B] means 
Back to the charts Andrew posted in post #14 … you certainly can see the “depth” that he mentioned as a visual aspect of IKH. The fib chart seems to show future resistance, whereas the IKH chart does not … but as a visual representation of support and overall trend, the IKH is definitely more dramatic.
Anyone else have comments on these two charts? They are a great way to compare IKH with a more traditional method of charting. It makes me really want to learn more about this IKH as I can see how it could show a new level of information once you learn it.
This is all above the cloud, so the crosses are strong bullish signals; but, as you know, the Guppy has not been in what we would call a smooth uptrend the past several days. Look at the Chikou Span - where is it at (remember, you’re drawing horizontally from price back to Chikou, then vertically to price 26 periods ago) relative to the current price? On the 3H, anyway, I see a weak bearish setup there. Also, the Kumo is tightening dramatically, supporting the notion that the pair is consolidating. Nevertheless, price remains on the bullish side of the cloud, making any shorts inadvisable: as we have also seen.
There is the tendency here - at least for myself - to lean on the 3H/4H (for purposes of this point, it makes no difference) a little too much. IKH can be used on these timeframes and will generate excellent predictive results, but the daily is the classic IKH chart that cuts out the chop we’re feeling here in this consolidative area. One look at the daily tells you the uptrend is, as yet, unchallenged with the IKH “big picture” unanimously supporting the upside movement.
But, a caveat to that: notice the peaks on the Chikou: 212.57-213.05. Price is struggling here in a way it has not since around 210-210.50. This correlates well to our traditional image of S/R, where we find clear resistance in the 212.80 area. The cloud has tapered to a thin band, and we nearly had a Senkou Span flip early yesterday. In a phrase, then: conflicting signals.
On the IKH, was there any signal that could have alerted to the big drop the G-Y took overnight? Andrew saw mixed signals the other day, she was overdue for a decent pullback and I just read there is a tendency of price to return to the Kijun line which is “equilibrium”.
On the 4 hour there was all kinds of action … it looks like when price hit the kijun line, that was time to bail … or if not, when it broke the A span. But I would appreciate input from those more experienced 
Andrew do you think it is important to use the 3h timeframe instead of the 4 hour? If so, there is a way to do that in MT4, I can post the instructions here for those who want to use a 3 hour.
Some IKH analysis of the Guppy posted on the GBP/JPY “Equity Building” system thread elsewhere on the forum:
Talk about an uneventful rangebound day, huh? Well, unless you were daytrading in what turned out to be a pretty clearly defined range - some good opportunities there to clear pips both long and short.
The bottom of the cloud (Senkou Span A) lies at 211.16 currently, while SS-A slopes down mildly to 211.02 by the 0900 ET candle. The 144 comes in for reinforcement at exactly this level, as well. This is where, if not during the increased volatility coming during early Frankfurt/London (0200-0500 ET) we will see an important test of near-term support. A break here will revisit 210.67, and then back to the ~210 area as described earlier.
Tenkan-Sen (blue line) lies above Kijun-Sen (red line) just above the cloud, but because TS takes in only 9 periods of data, the long green and long red candles from early July 07 will be falling off, and with price falling through the cloud this will pull TS down into the kumo (cloud), setting up a bearish cross if price falters through 211.
In other words, unless the bulls resume control of the field to throwback the pair to 211.68+ (and especially 212.10+), the IKH picture is creeping across the line into bearish territory. If price closes below the kumo @ 0300 ET, Tenkan-Sen will follow shortly, crossing top-down over Kijun-Sen. If nothing happens to the contrary and those lines emerge from the bottom of the cloud in the next 24-48 hours, 210.67, ~210 and perhaps even 208.94-209.20 are in the cards. There’s nothing fundamental (unless Bernanke’s speech sets off a significant USD rally) on schedule that would negate this, so any twists and turns will be technically-based.
I am short the pair from the ascending trendline (white line) break @ 211.66.
Sorry about the delay responding here, 4xStar. I’d like to see some more discussion here, so I’ll try to be more vigilant.
Going back to 06/26-06/27, IKH produced little signaling the reversal with any really precision. But, there is an asymmetry between price and the kumo that did indicate a fall was probable:
One thing easily noticed is that the very thick kumo ascendant @ about a 45 degree angle from 06/12 tapers off and turns sideways following the decline in price on 06/17-18. The kumo steps up mildly after that, but the angle and density are gone. Now, Contrast the drop off in the kumo with the relatively steep ascent in price from 06/23-06/25. See any divergence here? This is where price and the cloud are telling different stories. The break and then failed re-test of Kijun-Sen late 06/26 - early 06/27 confirmed this. In addition to this, and what really signaled the reversal here was the evening star/bearish engulfing pattern on the 0300-0900 ET 06/26 candles.
Are you on a 3 hour timeframe for the analysis below? And the candles mentioned are 3 hour as well?
That’s correct. I know we’ve discussed this before and the 4H would be much more helpful, even though there isn’t much deviation. Nevertheless, the levels mentioned are still different. For now, I’ll have to pop over to the WinOS side of my laptop to render the 4H version of whatever my analysis is, grab a screenshot or two and post it from there. No big deal.
More to come. I’m think of tossing some funds into an IKH-dedicated sub-account on which I’d take trades from 3H/4H/1D charts, and I could post any trades taken here for discussion.
IKH is a very powerful tool that people are intimidated by and/or wholly ignorant of in the West. The same could’ve been said about candlesticks before Steven Nison published his first book, but look at the pride of place given them by most technicians today. I’m not suggesting IKH is as elemental to trading as the visual representation of a data point (e.g. a 1H period); just that it is a “well-kept Japanese trading secret” about which most western technicians (even many institutional traders and analysts) know relatively little. Hopefully more people will develop some interest on the topic here!
If you are working exclusively off the 3 hour charts, I’d prefer that you continue to do that in here. If that is the best timeframe, that is the one we should follow (apart from daily). In MT4 there is a simple way of making a 3 hour chart so it is not a problem.
I agree that knowledge of these charts could be a huge ‘secret weapon’ in forex TA … as you said, at one point candlesticks were considered some sort of voodoo … now they are essential to intelligent trading
Let’s forcus on analyzing one pair, the GBP/JPY and on the 2 timeframes, 3 hour and daily. That should keep up busy & if IKH can help us unlock the secrets of the guppys next move, we will become very wealthy as well
Sounds like a good plan! Hopefully you’re idea of very wealthy is the same as mine.
I’m going to quasi-take-the-night-off, but will go ahead and throw a 3H chart up with a few comments. Feel free to compare notes with your own take!
Some comments duplicated from the Guppy thread, with more IKH specific detail:
Price is probing the top of the cloud on the 3H chart @ 211.49 and finding some support, while Kijun-Sen provides support where the bottom of the cloud (Senkou Span-B) lies 15 pips lower @ 211.34. A 15 pip-thick cloud, though. With an Average True Range (ATR) above 300 pips, that’s chicken feed. Note that price at the Chikou Span (the jagged yellow line that ends in the cloud 78 hours ago) is at the same level as the current price, which - like the very thin, laterally-ranging kumo here and immediately ahead - reflects the indecision in the market.
Some western analysis: Note, though, that the 1H (not pictured) 1400 ET candle created a massive bearish engulfing pattern, swallowing the advance from 211.68 begun 11 hours early at the London open. The retrace was shallow, taking in 38% (fib ratio!) of the decline (211.66 to 211.87 from 212.22), and now we’ve extended a bit further to the downside, just closing with a perfect neutral doji. Also, 50% fib retracement from the recent crest (213.66) to the subsequent trough (209.42) is 211.54 - a mere 4 pips from where the 2100 ET candle closed.
Price has moved back up a pittance, but finds resistance @ 211.68 (this level continues to emerge over and over again), where Tenkan-Sen lies at the moment. Remember 211.68 is the bottom of the range (211.68-212.10) we were stuck in yesterday. A close held above 212.10 would break the impasse; but bulls are not on solid ground until a base is established north of there.
Not much change in the last 12 hours. Price is in the middle of the kumo, hinging around the 50% fib retracement mentioned above (211.54), finding support below the kumo at the 144 EMA: the 0900 ET candle’s low: 211.16; the 1H 144 EMA: 211.17.
So far in the thread we haven’t really discussed the predictive power of IKH, especially the cloud itself. I’ll present a more detailed discussion of this a bit later. For the moment, let’s look at the Tenkan-Sen line.
Take note of how Tenkan-Sen evolves and it’s positioning relative to Kijun-Sen. TS sits @ 211.74. Of the last 9 periods (which is the data set TS is based on), the oldest closes are currently the highest: candles 1 and 2 (meaning 21 and 24 hours ago) both closed at ~211.89. This means that the 0900 and 1200 candles will push them off the board, with current candles 3-9 closing lower, between 211.68 and 211.57. If 0900 and 1200 close significantly lower (say, sub-211.50), this will drop TS about 20-30 pips, well into the kumo and closer to a bearish top-down cross over KS of medium strength. If they close around 211.68, this will still drop TS into the kumo, because the data points pushed out are 20 pips higher.
This will seem familiar: it is a classic example of moving average crossovers. But, this more powerful than, say, a 50/200 SMA cross, and that is because of the periodicity of the lines, how TS is calculated, and the cloud’s function as a filter for these crosses.
I’ll be back to post some charts and a bit more rambling later on!
Be careful out there.
Please forgive me my ignorance (I’m IKH newbie) 
but on the last plot, I can see on 9th July (?time -I can’t read it 
) the Tenkan (?blue line) is crossing over Kijun line (within the cloud) and the current price (for corresponding crossover) stays above the cloud - I would consider it as relatively strong buying signal. I can’t see continuation of the chikou line (that would add some strenght to this signal). I know the price may stay below chikou line taking away some byuing power. All in all I’m starting to believe in rrram’s self-fulfilling guupie prophecy
Unless The Guupie Cloud will negate for a time being all rrram’s spell 
What’s your take on it ?
Ohh, I would completely forget. Here you are daily IKH for beloved “She”
As there is another crossover up, price stays above “Up-cloud” -sun is shining. The only thing, the crossover is belowed chikou/lagging span-which can take some power away. I know this is long term and the range is huge as she loves to swing like crazy
Anyway daily chart (which is the best if you want to use IKH) supports the current rrram’s prophecy.
Any thoughts ???
Hi Pakiestra,
That bottom-up cross occurred on the 0600 ET candle on 07/09/08. Because it occurred in the cloud, I would regard it as a neutral or medium strength cross, even while price is above the cloud. Price at the Chikou span was actually the same. These crosses are powerful, in any case, but there are certain elements that make them higher probability.
Are you referring to the May 22-23 bottom-up cross? That’s a great example of how powerful these crosses are for swing/immediate trading on the 1D. The long trade signaled there hasn’t been negated or reversed, so I suppose in that sense rrram’s perennial bullishness is validated; but you don’t have to scan too far back on your 1D chart to find some excellent examples that contradict this. For now, the 1D reflects the rangebound chop well; and even though it can be read as bullish because it is above the cloud, above KS/just above TS and well above the Chikou span, the momentum of the last several months has clearly waned. Whether it will renew itself is now the question
One could use the 1D chart as a wide filter for when and when not to use rrram’s method, if they wanted to. I do not and will not use the method, though, so I’ll leave that topic to others.
And you’re right: 1D is the best choice; but 3H/4H affords us more trading opportunities, and the quality of signal compared to the 1D is not really compromised by added market noise. 1H and below are inadvisable.
Hi Andrewunknown
Yep, I’m referring to the 22-23 bottom-up cross as a long term. So to say the sun is still over the cloud though cloud is getting thinner and thinner -so I agree. Besides there is a weak signal when Tenkan crosses Kijun to the down, it’s over the cloud so I would consider it a weak signal.
However is difficult for me to agree that cross-over (doesn’t matter the direction) within the Kumo is considered to be weak signal - for me that would be medium strenght. I’m a newbie so I would love to learn something new. Could you help me with this interpretation as this is where a great confusion starts for me. Which is weak, which is strong etc.
Cheers !
