Yes yes, I know, its a silly question - but it needs to be asked .
Cycles have 2 characteristics - a Start and an End.
Within these cycles are …more cycles! That is what gets everyone fubar’d…you see it all the time, everyone assumes they are in one cycle and then WHAM!, the ‘cycle’ stops working!
So…to take a page out of WD Gann’s work - if you know the cause, you can study the effect.
Back to my previous two charts - we defined the starting point as Equilibrium.
Let’s now re-define that as our ‘Cause’.
The effect therefore should be one of two things - either a rise in price, or a fall in price.
In this 1m chart, we can see the effect of the Kumo roll on the previous 1H chart I posted. Prices drop to a point that there is a separation of the Tenkan-Sen line from the Kijun-Sen line. (Red and Blue on the chart. ) What I am specifically looking for is a return to equilibrium…this is what the 1m chart is attempting to do now.
One key thing about the separation - look for the Kijun-Sen line (Blue Line) to flatten…that is the key. The Flattening happens when Price starts to return up.
Lastly, we need the Kumo to catch up (or down in this case)…then this 1m cycle has completed. This however, does not end the long term trend.