Look at the bright side people. He saved you a lot of time trying to make the tools work. Closure in validation. Move along…nothing more here to see…))))
Fellow trader, what you are saying is great because it is going to allow us to see clearly why a trader can be completely wrong by not thinking and understanding the tools he uses and blaming the tools instead of looking at itself.
First of all. You can’t backtest the way you are doing, it simply doesn’t make sense. How can you backtest an OTE entry? do you think it would make sense to backtest a 50% retracement?? its just stupid. Think about it, think about what an OTE is…
An OTE is a profound retracement of a fractal. Why is it called Optimal Timed Entry???.. Because if you think the market is going up (for example) and you are wating for a retracement (this can be in different time scales, as you know there are different types and depths of retracements) then a retrace between 60/70% is an optimal point because the trend is still valid and you are minimizing the risk with relation to the swing low that marks your point of reference for the retrace.
Do you get what’s the value of the tool?. Its not the pattern that is going to make money, its your market lecture that the trend is going to prevail and your decision to enter in a retrace. The OTE is simply an optimal time to enter from a timing/risk-reward point of view. Do you get how ridiculous is to backtest a pattern like that??.
Its exactly the same stupidity to do it with a swing-3, london open strategy, LO to NYO retrace… this tools give you a framework that will help you if your market lecture is correct and will force you to take some habits like waiting for the retrace to be profound (OTE), waiting for the daily retrace to give signals of possible trend revive (daily swing-3), and so on…
How the hell can you backtest killzones??? how the hell???. Killzones derive from the fact that swing turns are more probable when there is STRONG liquidity to change a prevailing dynamic (trend) to the oposite side… For god sake think with your HEAD.
You speak and think like robots. Its like taking a RSI and selling when its overbought / buying when its oversold… for god sake DONT do that… think what is the environment, the trend, the sentiment, understand what is the nature of the tool you are dealing with and when can it be helpful.
I hope you guys do some reflection and independently of ICT and all this stuff… Think when the tools are useful… and don’t trade like machines, because if you wanna go to automatic trading, you are gonna need to put a lot more intelectual capital to compete in the quant arena…
Take care
That doesn’t explain how no one was able to step forward and cite consistent profitability using these tools.
Give 100 the exact same strategy and you’ll have 100 different outcomes. The turtles…
And psychology is over rated?
My Trading Plan:
Clearly I need to find a better way to approach the markets to make my day-trading better. I would appreciate for some of the more harsh critiques to try to help me, though I’m gratefull to whomever responds. What I’m going to do is use the following tools in combinations to learn to trade Fiber and Cable better. The trick will be not trading based on just one of the tools, but identifying situations where I can find multiple factors that agree. The primary tool I’ll use will be to identify the dominant direction of the market and trade only in that direction.
On a weekly basis on the weekends, I’m going to monitor the treasury markets, the major equity indicies, COT reports for extreme net longs, and a feel for open interest. I’m going to do this to get a general feel for the market but will not make trading decisions (unlike yesterday lol) based on these at all. Just an index finger in the air. I’ll also assume that any given day / week has cycles, like accumulation, distribution, etc, and be mindful of it, and that there are patterns the market makes at various times of day to hunt for stop losses in the market, or where folks close their trades to go home, etc.
I will look at Weekly and Daily charts for the two pairs I mentioned to get a feel for S/R, as well as looking at the dollar inxex to determine market direction. If the pairs are correlated most of the time, I will look for divergences to assist in supporting further hints of possible moves. Primarily, I will look at market structure on daily and four hour charts to see if I should consider the markets bearish or bullish. If I can determine that there is a bull market occurring, I will only hunt for long positions etc, that I will enter based on Fibonacci retracements, as well as divergence between price itself, and a couple of indicators. I’ll try to get a feel for the market at times, by stepping back and trying to understand the various types (long term, medium term, short term) highs and lows, and I’ll try to get a feel for the flow of the market. Overall, market stucture (the higher time frame direction of the market) will be what I watch and I’ll come up with specific points that I require price to reach to change my bias. I will only trade on days where I can see and identifiable bias, otherwise no trade
When the market is in a clear short term range, if I can identify it, I’ll try to sell in the upper sections, and buy in the lower sections. I think I heard that the big banks move price around in a way that is symetrical, so if I can identify where these ‘Market Makers’ are making patterns, that will help me, as well as reading various books such as Murphy’s tome, etc.
I’ll try to manage risk tightly, and take some profits early (25-30 pips), and when I get hold of what seems to be a big move that is driven by an institution, I’ll use Fibonacci extensions to help me find targets, like 127 and 162. Maybe ill try to find ways to measure the market moves when I start to grasp things, as I know moves can occur in equal sections, and there are average ranges to consider.
I admit that as I read this post, there is a lot of stuff here. It looks like it would take a lot of time to learn, so maybe I’m best off trading microlots or a demo account until I can get it down. Again, every trade will be like I’m presenting a case, where multiple pieces of evidence will be required.
I know it seems convoluted, but over time is there anything here that does not help me to better understand the markets. There might be better ways, but are any of the ways above fake or phony? Forget mentors, forget names. If I want to get in tune with the markets, to develop my trading skills, will this plan help me?
I think you are probably the only one that got all that out of all this…lol. What’s a “market lecture”?
U sure?? Seems a few are doin just that
I take the good n leave the ugly
you are new to trading, right??
An OTE can be backtested even in a trendy enviroment… what can not be backtested your discretionary decision to choose the timeframe and not all swings in the market are created equal, that is why you can not rely on an OTE entry.
Plus a foward testing hasn’t been successful… just check how different are the followers entries even when they are doing the same day trading.
OTE is just a fancy acronym to call [I]trading off swings[/I]
Show me where?
Anything can be backtested if it is quantitative defined… Now, what is a [I]swing turn[/I] for you?
OTE stands for Optimal Trade Entry…
as per ICT Glossary…
[B][I]optimal trade entry — entry zone between the 62% and 79% retracement levels — note that 62% and 79% are not standard fib retracement levels
OTE — (see optimal trade entry)[/I][/B]
Read more: 301 Moved Permanently
How can you backtest an OTE entry?
An OTE (Optimal Trade Entry) is an entry on or between the 61% and 79% retracements of a reaction of price at a higher time frame S&R. An OTE can also be an entry as price hits an S&R level.
Do you get how ridiculous is to backtest a pattern like that?
No it’s pretty simple. Key support and resistance levels zoom in on a lower time frame and then confirm with time of day.
How the hell can you backtest killzones??? how the hell???
Killzones as ICT said in all the videos are times of day. 7:00-9:00 LO 12:00-14:00 NYO and 15:00-17:00.
It is again very simple to target OTE’s in only these time periods in a backtest.
think what is the environment, the trend, the sentiment, understand what is the nature of the tool you are dealing with and when can it be helpful.
All of these are also testable. He defined trend with fractals and market structure breaks, sentiments was taken from Oanda and Open Interest in futures, the nature of all the tools was taken into account when testing.
It’s not hard to backtest what he was telling people to do.
I thought that the first time his account went down 4%. When he said he was doing it for real, and then tanked his account nearly 20% I had a revelation.
I’ve been pretty suspect of him since he plagiarized that Gun collection video which I clearly saw on youtube long before he posted it. The guy in the Original video had a strong southern accent lol, clearly not Michael.
But I defended him to see how his FXbook played out.
It’s pretty disappointing that he turned out to be a fake and that I sunk so many hours into a pipe dream.
Jolly,
You were one of the first people I told that ICT was full of it. Long before my big mouth made a prep on any of his threads, I was forever telling people in the chat room the dude was no good.
You didn’t want to hear me because you thought I voted for Obama and was a socialist! Lol. Good times in the chat room. 
I missed this whole gun thing everyone is talking about. When was this?
I can understand attacking Michaels character lol.
But what I can’t understand is people who want to talk about the tools.
Why do we refer people to the babypips school? It’s the same stuff just presented in video format and given different names. Most of you haven’t even watched the videos (the ones talking about them)
So of support and resistance fibs and time of day doesn’t work then what does? Nothing? Because I don’t see very many people making money off any of the threads systems and ideas. Do indicators work then? Is overbought and oversold real? Is it just 50:50?
Talk about ICTs guys but what about Pete’s or captain currency’s? Or nakita. Is anyone making money?
You guys attack Michael because of his personality. And that’s fine but don’t pour it over into other stuff. Especially stuff you don’t know anything about.
I’m blaming all my grammatical and spelling on my iPhone :-D. But I’m leaving it for the head scratches and laughs lol
That’s not why heh. Well, maybe…
No, there is no such thing as an overbought and oversold price. It’s just price.
I know mastergunner it was a joke lol.
Okay good. I was all ready to argue that one.