Unless you can see order flow and real volume, you cannot trade effectively intraday,although it is possibleā¦ Most of the time, without volume stats, the levels we see on charts are treacherous , to say the least.
Therefore, ideas based on technical levels, especially if running counter to prevailing trends, can have no foundation in term of actual standing orders, and are effectively meaningless - just drawings we make on our chartā¦ Sometimes the markets will honour these patterns, but there needs to be a lot of statistical study by a trader on any pattern he/she intends to specialise in, before trading it with confidence.
The other issue is this: we are at the mercy of bigger playersā¦Banks holding investments do not have stop losses, and have yearly (and quarterly) price forecasts, therefore a big one-day move will grab their attention but they will likely approach risk in a very different way from an individual trader or even a money managerā¦
Sentiment, also, can override any news or data that disagrees with it, so that, for example if an index or currency enjoys bullish sentiment, it will downplay negative data to the point of extreme frustration for anyone who perceives the detachment between the data and the marketsā¦
Given all of the above, therefore, it could well be that bigger players than us will downplay the āBrexitā furore and quietly build up a positive positioning on Sterling, based not on logic, or data, but on sentiment play that can be in discord with what is perceived to be the consensus.
