EURUSD Clears A Monster Resistance, More Gains Ahead?
The Euro has finally taken out the 1.3600 resistance zone against the US dollar, and was seen trading higher during the London session. This was less to do with the Euro strength, and more to do with the US dollar weakness, as other major pairs like GBPUSD and AUDUSD were also seen gaining earlier today. The most important thing to note here is that the EURUSD pair has now breached an important bearish trend line, which was holding the downside in the pair.
This trend line was just above a critical confluence zone of the 100 and 200 hourly simple moving averages. So, this break can be considered as a bullish sign. The pair after the break surged higher towards the 1.3640 level. The pair has even managed to clear the 61.8% fib retracement level of the last drop from the 1.3676 high to the 1.3512 low. As of writing, the pair is flirting with the 76.4% fib level. If it manages to clear the same, then a run towards the last high of 1.3676 is possible in the short term.
Short-term Correction
If the pair fails again to clear the mentioned fib level, then a short-term correction is possible. Initial support can be seen around the 1.3600 level, followed by the broken trend line, which might now act as a support for the pair. More losses could take the pair towards the 100 and 200 hourly SMA confluence zone.
The US initial jobless, Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index and Conference Board (CB) Leading Index data will be released during the NY session. These economic releases might act as a catalyst for the EURUSD pair.
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The British pound continued its assault on most of the major currencies, including the Canadian dollar. The GBPCAD pair is forming a major triangle on the daily timeframe. The pair is currently under the 4the wave in the triangle, and heading towards the triangle resistance zone. Currently, the pair is flirting with the 61.8% fib retracement level of the last leg lower from the 1.8663 high to 1.8097 low. If the pair closes above the 61.8% fib level, then it would open the doors for a test of the 76.4% fib level.
Then mentioned fib level also coincides with the triangle resistance zone. So, it holds a lot of importance in the short term, as buyers might struggle around the triangle resistance zone. It would be interesting to see whether the pair would be able to breach the resistance zone or not to challenge the previous high. One positive thing to note here is that the pair is trading above the 100-day simple moving average, which means the chance of a run higher is great compared to a decline.
If the pair fails to bounce from the current levels, then it might fall back towards the 100-day SMA at 1.8380 where buyers might appear to protect more downside in the pair. Only a close below the 100-day SMA would encourage the sellers to take the pair back towards the last low.
Canadian CPI Data
The Canadian Consumer price index and retail sales data will be published later during the day. These are important economic releases, which can trigger a lot of moves in the Canadian dollar. So, keep an eye on these events and trade accordingly.
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The Canadian dollar is trading higher against the US dollar, as improved inflation data tilted the market sentiment in favour of Canadian dollar especially against the US dollar. The USDCAD pair has breached an important bullish trend line support area. Moreover, the pair has closed below the 200-day simple moving average, which can be considered as a negative sign in the medium term. However, an important point to note here is that the pair is currently testing the 50% fib retracement level of the last move higher from the 1.0185 low to 1.1267 high. So, we might see buyers around the mentioned fib level.
If the USDCAD pair breaks the 50% fib level, then it would open the doors for a downside acceleration towards the 61.8% fib level. Any further losses should be limited considering the dovish stance of the Bank of Canada.
The RSI on the daily chart has reached the 30 level, which is an early-warning sign. The pair might hold the current levels, and retrace some of the recent losses. However, if the pair manages to correct higher from the current levels, then it might face resistance around the broken 200-day SMA. If the pair settles above the same, then strong offers can be seen around the broken trend line support zone, which might act as a resistance now.
There are few economic releases scheduled later during the day in the US, including the US existing home sales data. Let’s see how the data plays out, and whether the pair can continue to hold the 50% fib level or not in the short term.
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The US dollar is forming a contracting triangle against the Swiss franc on the 30-minute timeframe. The USDCHF pair is currently flirting with the triangle support area, which is also coinciding with the 100 simple moving average (30M) at 0.8945. So, the mentioned support level holds a lot importance in the short term. However, the pair is also struggling to break the 50% fib retracement level of the last drop from the 0.8995 high to 0.8912 low. The highlighted triangle is contracting, which means the pair is heading towards a critical break.
Currently, the 30M RSI is above the 50 level, which is a positive sign. However, the market sentiment stiff does not favour more gains in the US dollar, as despite strong US manufacturing PMI and Existing home sales data it was unable to trade higher. Most of the major pairs are trading in a range or forming a breakout pattern like in the case of the USDCHF pair. If the pair breaks lower, then the 0.8920-30 support area might come into play, followed by a test of the previous low.
If the pair climbs higher from the current levels, then it might face hurdle around the triangle resistance trend line, which is also coinciding with the 200 SMA (30M). If it manages to clear the triangle to the high side, then a run towards the previous high is possible in the short term.
There are few important risk-events lined up later during the New York session, including the US new home sales data and CB consumer confidence. Both are expected to improve this time, and if that happens, then the US dollar might gain some traction in the coming sessions.
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The US dollar is closing in for a break against the Japanese yen, as there is an important pattern forming on the hourly timeframe. There is a triangle forming, which might lead the pair lower or higher in the coming sessions. We have the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to be released later during the day by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, which might spark a break in the USDJPY pair. Moreover, the US services PMI and durable goods orders data will also be released around the same time to add to the volatility.
The USDJPY pair has time and again bounced from the triangle support trend line. However, it has only increased the chance of a break lower in the pair. The pair is again trading around the same zone and below both important simple moving averages on the 4 hour timeframe – 100 and 200. This can be considered a negative sign. If the pair breaks the triangle support trend line and moves lower, then it might open the doors for a downside acceleration towards the last low of 101.60. The most important point to note here is that the recent economic data published in the US was impressive, which means catching a falling knife might not be a good idea.
Alternatively, if the pair bounces from the current levels, then it might face resistance around the 200 SMA (4H). Any further strength might take the pair towards the 50% fib level of last recent drop from the 102.16 high, followed by a test of the triangle resistance trend line.
The RSI is below the 50 level, which is not a good sign considering the current market sentiment and technical levels. Overall, a break is certainly on the cards in the short term.
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The Euro finally managed to clear an important range resistance yesterday against the US dollar post disappointing US GDP data. Currently, there is a trend line forming on the hourly timeframe for the EURUSD pair. The pair is consolidating recent gains, and it is possible that the pair might re-test the trend line support zone in the short term. It is important to note that the 50% fib retracement level of the last leg higher from the 1.3582 low to 1.3650 high is around the 1.3617 level. The mentioned fib level also coincides with the trend line support area. So, the pair might gain bids around this area if it trades lower.
The 100 hourly simple moving average is also moving along the same trend line. So, it won’t be easy for the Euro sellers to take the EURUSD pair below the trend line. If they manage to do so, then a move back to the 200 hourly SMA is possible in the near term. Any further losses could take the pair back towards the 1.3560 swing support area where buyers will be tested again.
On the other hand, if the pair climbs from the current or a bit lower levels, then the recent high of 1.3650 could be tested, followed by the month high at 1.3670. A break above the month’s high might take the pair towards the 1.3700 resistance level.
US Jobless Claims And Personal Spending Data
The US initial jobless claims and personal spending data will be released later during the day. The US jobless claims are expected to fall by 2K. If the data disappoints again like the US GDP, then the US dollar might lose more ground against the Euro in the short term.
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The Euro fell sharply against the British pound during the yesterday’s London session. There was an important trend line on the hourly chart for the EURGBP pair. The Euro sellers managed to break the same trend line, as the pair traded lower. Now, the chance of a re-test of the previous low of 0.7958 has increased, as the pair has also cleared the 50% fib retracement level of the last leg higher from the 0.7958 low to 0.8033 high. One more important thing to note here is that the pair is now trading below both 100 and 200 simple moving averages (1H), which can be considered as a negative sign.
Currently, the pair is flirting with the 61.8% fib retracement level. If the mentioned fib level gives way for more losses, then it would open the doors for a re-test of the previous low. If the pair manages to gain some bids and trades higher, then it might face resistance in the form of the 100 hourly SMA. More gains are feasible, but the broken trend line support area could now act as a resistance for the pair. So, it would be interesting to see whether the pair can succeed in breaking the mentioned resistance zones or not.
The hourly RSI is below the 50 level, but bouncing from the extreme levels. So, let’s wait and see whether RSI can clear the 50 level or not.
Euro Zone Consumer Sentiment
Later during the next Asian session, the Euro zone’s consumer sentiment will be released by the European Commission. The market is expecting a minor 0.10 point rise in the consumer confidence from -7.10 to -7.00. If the outcome exceeds the expectation, the Euro might trade higher in the near term.
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The US dollar is trading lower against the Japanese yen Intraday despite weak Japanese industrial production data. It is important to note that the USDJPY pair has breached a significant swing support area of 100.50. This break has opened the doors for further downside acceleration towards the previous low of 100.80. Currently, the pair is flirting with the 76.4% fib retracement level of the last move higher from the 100.80 low to 102.78 high. It looks like that the pair might clear the same and trade lower in the coming sessions. If the pair falls, then it would be interesting to see how the US dollar reacts around the 100.80 support level.
If somehow the pair manages to trade higher from the current levels, then the broken swing support area at 101.50 level might act as a hurdle for the pair. Any further strength might take the pair towards the 200 simple moving average on the 4 hour chart. More gains look difficult considering the current market sentiment, and there is a bearish trend line on the 4 hour chart as a well, which could act as a barrier for the pair on the upside. The mentioned trend line also coincides with the 100 SMA (4H). So, it holds a lot importance in the short to medium term.
The RSI is also around the extreme levels, which means the pair might correct a bit higher from the current levels. However, one cannot deny the fact that the break of the 101.50 level was crucial for the pair.
Japan industrial Production Data
Earlier during the Asian session, the Japan’s industrial production data was published by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. The outcome was below the expectations, as the Japan’s industrial production registered a gain of 0.5%, compared to 0.9% expected.
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The US dollar is trading lower against almost all major currencies, including the Swiss franc. The USDCHF pair is now forming a descending channel on the 4 hour timeframe, which might turn out to be a game changer for the pair in the near term. More importantly, the channel support area is coinciding with the 50% fib retracement level of the last up-move from the 0.8703 low to 0.9033 high. So, the 0.8860 support level can be considered as an important barrier for the US dollar sellers. Let’s wait and see how the pair reacts if it moves back lower and re-tests the mentioned channel support area again.
If somehow the pair manages to bounce from the current levels, then the channel resistance trend line at 0.8920 might come into play. A break and close above the same might call for more upside acceleration towards the 200 simple moving average on the 4 hour chart. The RSI is also around the extreme levels, which means the probability of a short-term retracement is quite high moving ahead.
Alternatively, if the US dollar sellers manage to break the channel support area, then a test of the 61.8% fib level is possible in the near term. Any further losses would largely depend on the incoming data from the US.
US ISM Manufacturing PMI
Today, the Institute for Supply Management will be releasing the US ISM Manufacturing PMI. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to rise from 55.4 to 55.8. If it manages to register a better than expected reading, than the USDCHF pair might gain bids in the coming NY session. Technically, the 0.8860-50 support level holds the key in the short term for the USDCHF pair.
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The Australian dollar is trading a touch lower against the Swiss franc Intraday, as the economic data released in the Australian came as a disappointment. The trade balance data was published earlier during the Asian session for the Australia. The outcome missed the forecast, as the Australian trade deficit, which came at -$1.911 billion. This was way below the expectations. The outcome resulted in a down-move in the Australian dollar against most of the major currencies, including the Swiss franc.
Technically, there is a channel forming on the 4 hour timeframe, which recently acted as a resistance for the pair around the 0.8430 level. Currently, the pair is trading below the 100 simple moving average (4H). If it closes below it, then it might call for more losses in the pair, which could take it towards the 200 simple moving average (4H). If it fails to hold the same, then a test of the channel support trend line is possible in the short term. The channel support holds a lot of significance, as the 50% fib retracement level of the last leg higher from the 0.8210 low to 0.8477 high is also around the same support area. So, a break and close below it would be seen as a bearish for the pair.
On the other hand, if the pair manages to climb from the current or a bit lower levels, then it might trade back towards the channel resistance trend line. The RSI is holding the 50 level, which is a positive sign in the short term.
A break above the channel resistance zone might call for sharp gains in the AUDCHF pair, which could even take it above the last high of 0.8477.
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The Australian dollar is trading lower against most major currencies, including the US dollar, as the Australian retail sales data which was released earlier came below the expectations. The report published mentions that the Australia’s retail sales fell by 0.5% in May 2014, missing the forecast of a 0.3% rise. Moreover, the RBA Governor also spoke during the Asian session, which ignited a sharp down-move in the AUDUSD pair. The AUDUSD pair fell below an important support area to trade below the 0.9380 level.
Technically, there was a bullish trend line on the hourly chart for the AUDUSD pair. The pair has cleared the mentioned trend line and traded as low as 0.9370. The pair has even breached the 61.8% fib retracement level of the last move higher from the 0.9322 low to 0.9504 high. More importantly, the pair is trading below the 100 and 200 hourly simple moving averages, which can be considered as a strong bearish signal in the short term. If the pair breaches the 76.4% fib level, then a test of the previous low might be on the cards.
The hourly RSI is around the extreme levels, which means the pair might correct higher from the current or a bit lower levels. If it manages to do so, then it might face hurdle around the broken trend line, which might act as a resistance moving ahead. Moreover, the 0.9420-40 area might act as a barrier for the pair, and it would be very tough for the Aussie buyers to break it.
So, selling around the mentioned resistance zone might not be a bad idea. However, one should wait for some retracement before planning a trade in the AUDUSD pair.
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The British pound is trading back around the yesterday’s high against the US dollar, which means the GBPUSD pair managed to recover all the lost ground post the US nonfarm payrolls data release. The US nonfarm payrolls registered a massive rise of 288K, compared to the expectations of 212K. The US dollar is trading higher against most of the major currencies, but it looks like that the British pound is outperforming the US dollar, as it has recovered all yesterday’s losses.
Technically, there was a short-term bearish trend line formed on the 4 hour chart for the GBPUSD pair. The pair was struggling to break the same, but during the early part of the Asian session, the pair broke the mentioned trend line to trade towards the 1.7170 resistance level. Currently, the pair is trading around the yesterday’s high, and if it manages to clear the same, then a test of the 1.7200 resistance area is possible in the short term. It is important to note that the pair bounced right from the 100 simple moving average (4H), and then breached the trend line. So, more gains cannot be denied from here on.
On the other hand, if the pair fails around the 1.7170 level, then a move lower might take the pair towards the broken trend line, which could act as a support. If it fails to hold the mentioned trend line, then it could drop towards the 100 SMA (4H) where it might find buyers again.
The RSI is well above the 50 level, and there are several support levels on the way down. So, it would be very hard for sellers to take the GBPUSD lower in the near term.
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The Euro is trading lower against the US dollar, but it has managed to hold the ground against the Swiss franc. In fact, the EURCHF pair is trading higher Intraday. It is more due to weakness of the Swiss franc, and less due to the strength of the Euro. There was an important bearish trend line on the hourly chart for the EURCHF pair, which was breached earlier during this past week. This break was very critical, as it ignited a sharp move higher in the pair. The pair has even breached the 200 and 100 hourly simple moving averages, which is a bullish sign in the short term.
More importantly, the pair has managed to break the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the last drop from the 1.2177 high. This means there is a high probability that the pair might test the mentioned high and even break it to trade higher. So, in the short term 1.2177 is a resistance area. A break above the mentioned level could take the pair towards the 1.2200 resistance area where sellers are expected to reappear. Any further strength looks difficult as of now, as the Euro is struggling against other major currencies, which might act as a barrier for the EURCHF pair.
On the other hand, if buyers fail to gain momentum, and the EURCHF pair moves lower, then it might fall towards the 200 hourly simple moving average, which could act as a support for the pair. If sellers manage to pierce it, then 100 hourly SMA would hold the key for any further downside in the pair.
So, as long as the pair is trading above the 200 hourly SMA, the chance of a run towards the 1.2180 level is quite high.
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You’ve selected the worst pair for your analysis. I am certain you fully aware of the trading volumes in EURCHF as opposed to EURJPY for example. The illiquidity paves the way for price manipulations. You know the SNB maintained the EURCHF 1.2000 floor for a substantial amount time, ensuring billions of dollars worth of stops are below 1.2000. I honestly doubt the big market players will not have a go at testing the 1.2000 floor. Therefore, EURCHF will always be a short for me until the next FX intervention.
The Australian dollar recently managed to gain some bids against the New Zealand dollar, but failed to sustain the momentum. Earlier, the AUDNZD pair broke an important bullish trend line to trade lower towards the 1.0680 support level where buyers reappeared. The pair again managed to climb back up, but failed around the broken trend line, which acted as a resistance for the pair. Moreover, the same trend line also coincided with a bearish trend line connecting recent swing highs. So, a failure around this resistance zone might be seen as crucial, which could act as a driver to take the pair lower in the short term.
Fundamentally, the Australia’s NAB (National Australia Bank) Business Confidence was released earlier during the Asian session, which registered a better than expected outcome. The report mentioned that the Business confidence showing no ill effects from the government’s ‘tough budget’, rather improving in line with better business conditions. This was an encouraging sign, but the Australian dollar failed to gain bids against the New Zealand dollar despite rising against the US dollar.
If the AUDNZD pair rises from the current levels, and manages to break the trend line confluence area, then it might challenge the 100 hourly moving average in the short term. If buyers manage to gain control, then a move towards the 50% fib retracement level of the last drop from the 1.0837 high to 1.0676 low is also possible.
However, if the pair continues to struggle around the mentioned confluence resistance zone, then a drop towards the recent low cannot be denied. The only positive thing as of now is that the hourly RSI is back above the 50 level, which could encourage buyers moving ahead.
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The US dollar continued its decline against the Japanese yen yesterday, as the market sentiment favoured more gains in the Japanese yen. The USDJPY pair broke an important bullish trend line on the one-hour chart, which resulted in a sharp down-move in the pair. The pair also fell below the 61.8% fib level of the last leg higher from the 101.24 low to 102.26 high, and closed below the 200 moving average (1 hour). However, the pair found support around the 76.4% fib level, and currently bouncing back towards the broken trend line area.
On the upside, the broken 200 hourly SMA might act as an initial resistance for the pair, followed by the broken trend line where buyers could be put to test. It is very likely that the pair might struggle to break the mentioned resistance area and turn lower again. If that happens, then there is a high probability that the pair might fall towards the previous low of 101.24 in the short term. It is around this level where the US dollar buyers could reappear to hold the downside in the pair. If the 101.20 fails to hold, then a move towards the 100.80 support level would be on the cards.
The hourly RSI has bounced from the oversold levels and now testing the 50 level. A break above the same might put the pair back in the bullish zone. However, there are several hurdles on the way up for the pair.
The FOMC meeting minutes will be published today, which might act as a catalyst for the pair. As long as it is trading below the 100 hourly moving average more losses cannot be denied.
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The US dollar is trading lower Intraday, as the FOMC meeting minutes which was released yesterday failed to spark a rally. The US dollar moved lower against most of its counterparts, including the Swiss franc. There was an important sliding channel formed on the one-hour chart for the USDCHF pair, which was breached yesterday by the dollar sellers. The pair has now closed below the channel support area, and not event that it has managed to close below the 200 moving average (1H). This can be considered as a short-term bearish signal.
The pair is currently flirting with the 50% fib retracement level of the last major leg higher from the 0.8856 low to 0.8958 high. However, it can also be considered as broken, as the pair is struggling to hold the downside. Moving ahead, it looks like that the broken channel support area and the 200 moving average might act as a resistance, and push the pair lower. In that situation, the pair might fall towards the 61.8% fib level at 0.8895. If the dollar buyers fail to defend the mentioned fib level, then it would open the doors for further downside acceleration towards the last low of 0.8856.
Alternatively, if the recent break turned out to be a false one, and the USDCHF pair bounces from the current levels, then it might trade back towards the channel resistance trend line, which is also coinciding with the 100 moving average on the one hour chart.
So, keep an eye on the broken support area, and watch the reaction around the 0.8910 level. If buyers fail, then a sharp move lower is possible in the short term.
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The Euro impressed the investors when it traded higher against the US dollar after the FOMC meeting minutes. However, the EURUSD pair erased all the gains yesterday to trade below an important support level of 1.3600. There was a bullish trend line on the hourly chart for the EURUSD pair. The Euro sellers have managed to break the mentioned trend line to take the EURUSD pair lower. The pair traded as low as 1.3588 where buyers appeared to hold the downside in the pair. However, the market sentiment looks like largely in favour of the Euro sellers, which means more losses cannot be denied in the short term.
The EURUSD pair is currently flirting with the 23.6% fib retracement level of the recent down-move from the 1.3650 high to 1.3588 low. If the pair manages to trade higher from the current levels, then the 100 hourly moving average might act as an initial resistance for the pair. However, the most important hurdle for the pair is around the broken trend line, which now also coincides with the 50% fib retracement level. So, it is around this level where the Euro sellers might take charge to take the pair lower again.
The chance of a break above the 50% fib level is very low, but if that happens, then it could put the pair back on track towards the 1.3650 high.
Overall, as long as the pair is trading below the 50% fib level at 1.3620 selling rallies might be a good option in the short term. The German and Spanish Consumer price index data will be published during today’s London session, which might act as a catalyst for the pair moving ahead.
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The British pound is trading slightly lower against the US dollar. The GBPUSD pair traded above the 1.7150 level more than twice, but failed to break the critical resistance area. This has increased the bearish pressure on the GBPUSD pair. There is a bullish trend line forming on the 4 hour chart for the pair, which might act as a support for the pair in the short term. The most important point to note from the charts is that the mentioned trend line is coinciding with the 100 moving average (4H), which increases the significance of the trend line.
The GBPUSD pair is currently consolidating around the 23.6% fib retracement level of the last move higher from the 1.6919 low to 1.7175 high. Moreover, the 38.2% fib level is around the 1.7075 level, which is very close to the highlighted trend line. If the pair moves closer to the bullish trend line, then buyers might put up a fight to hold the downside in the pair. It is very likely that they could succeed in doing so, which would again open the doors for a test of the previous high of 1.7170. The only negative thing to note at present is that the RSI on the 4 hour chart has breached the 50 level, which might encourage the British pound sellers in the short term.
Alternatively, if the pair breaks down, and closes below the mentioned trend line, then a test of the 61.8% fib level at 1.7020 cannot be denied. Any further strength might take the pair towards the 200 SMA (4H), which is currently at 1.6950.
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The US dollar is mostly consolidating in a range against the Swiss franc, and waiting for a catalyst for a larger move. There is a major risk event lined up later during the NY session. The fed chairwoman Janet Yellen is scheduled to testify, which can cause a lot of movements in the US dollar. So, one should be very careful trading around the mentioned risk event. There is an economic release as well – the US retail sales data will also be published later today.
There is a bearish trend line connecting all recent highs on the 4 hour timeframe for the USDCHF pair. The pair is again heading towards the mentioned trend line and it is very interesting that the timing is coinciding with major risk events. So, it is likely that the pair might test the highlighted trend line and fail to break it if the risk events turn out to be on the negative side for the US dollar. The pair is currently flirting with the 38.2% fib retracement level of the last drop from the 0.9035 high to 0.8856 low. If the US dollar manages to clear the mentioned trend line, then it might face hurdle around the 50% fib level, which also coincides with the 200 simple moving average on the 4 hour timeframe. If buyers gain momentum, then it might even challenge the last swing high of 0.9000 level in the short term.
Alternatively, if the pair fails to break higher, then it might find support in the form of the last swing low at 0.8900 level. However, considering the risk events it is likely to trade back towards the previous low of 0.8856.
Overall, as long as the pair is trading below the bearish trend line a move lower cannot be denied.
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