ASX 200, the Australian bond market is actively growing
The Australian stock market is under pressure from the upward trend in bond yields and a 4.5% decline in the consumer sentiment index, according to today’s report by Westpac Banking Corp. So, the popular 10-year government securities of Australia reached the maximum of 2013 at around 4,207%, causing a drop in the investment attractiveness of risky assets for investors. For one-year bonds, the indicator significantly exceeded the yield of bank deposits and shares of companies from the most conservative sectors, amounting to 2.836%, and for global 20-year bonds – 4.406%, exceeding 3.850% at the beginning of last week.
The price of the index is within the global Expanding Formation pattern and is approaching the support line. Technical indicators reversed and gave a signal for the start of sales: the fast EMAs of the alligator indicator are well below the signal line, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms descending bars while in the sales zone.
Support levels: 6565, 6300 | Resistance levels: 6710, 7120
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Tesla, technical analysis
On the daily chart, the price is within the global Expanding formation pattern, gradually approaching the support line around 550. At the moment, the formation of the fifth downward wave is observed, which has reached the basic trend of 100.0% of the Fibonacci extension around 628.
On a four-hour chart, the local dynamics close within the Triangle pattern with dynamic boundaries of 746 – 628, the location of which confirms the further development of negative dynamics. Fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator continues to move away from the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram forms bars with a downward trend in the sell zone.
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Netflix, technical analysis
On the daily chart of the asset, the formation of a global downward channel with dynamic boundaries at 70 – 205 continues, within which the trading instrument has almost reached the resistance line and is preparing to continue its decline.
On the four-hour chart, it can be seen that the main obstacle for the negative dynamics is the year’s low at 163, which the price has already tested twice but has not been able to break, so a slight upward pullback is quite justified: it will allow the market to gain sufficient strength and overcome the obstacle.
The technical indicators reversed and gave a sell signal: indicator Alligator’s EMA oscillation range reversed downwards, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms downward bars in the sell zone.
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Nasdaq 100, formation of a global descending channel
One of the leading US indices, the Nasdaq 100, shows a downward trend, being at 11211. Due to the continued decline of stock markets, investors are increasingly paying attention to third-party markers that can describe and predict the future behavior of stocks. So, according to the Dow Jones Market Data report, for the first 100 days of this year, the combined dynamics of the leading US indices Dow Jones and S&P 500 was estimated by experts to be the weakest since 1970, and of the Nasdaq 100 technology index – even in the entire history of observations. Among the main reasons are high inflation and the insufficiently transparent policy of the US Fed regarding the regulation of interest rates.
As for global dynamics, the Buffett indicator, popular among bidders, reached 205%, which points out a significant revaluation of the stock market relative to the current state of the economy and hints at a possible continuation of the collapse in prices. The Wilshire 5000 Total Market composite stock market capitalization index was 46.69T dollars, and the latest GDP data was 22.72T dollars, which corresponds to 205% in terms of the coefficient, reflecting the highest value in history, whereas before the 2008 crisis it was about 150%.
The index quotes continue to form a global descending channel, declining in the direction of the support line. Technical indicators are in the state of a sell signal: the range of fluctuations of the EMAs of the alligator indicator is expanding in the direction of decline, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is trading in the sales zone.
Support levels: 11000, 10000 | Resistance levels: 11730, 12950
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DAX 30 - Murrey analysis
DAX 30 has been correction downwards over the past two weeks. During this time, the price moved into the negative zone of Murrey’s trading range and reached the lower pivot level 13125 ([2/8]) but the quotes failed to consolidate below it. If successful, the decline will continue up to 12500 ([0/8]) and 12187.5 ([–1/8]).
In general, the downward trend in the market continues, which confirms the downward reversal of Bollinger bands and the increase in the MACD histogram in the negative zone. The expected exit of Stochastic from the oversold zone may signal the beginning of an upward correction to 13437.5 ([3/8]), 13750.0 but this is unlikely to lead to a reversal of the current trend, and the continued decline of the asset soon remains a more likely scenario.
Resistance levels: 13437, 13750 | Support levels: 13125, 12500, 12187
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Nasdaq 100 - Murray analysis
The Nasdaq 100 index continues to move within the long-term downward channel. This week, the price tried to start a corrective growth, having reversed around the level of 11250 ([2/8]), but in the end all the positions won were lost.
The reversal level of 11250.0 is still the key for the “bears”. Its breakdown will give the prospect of further decline to the lower limit of the Murray trading range in the area of 10000 ([0/8]). When the level of 11875 ([3/8]) and the middle line of the Bollinger Bands break out (12090), quotes will be able to continue growing within the central Murray channel to the level of 13125 ([5/8]).
Technical indicators do not give a single signal: the Bollinger Bands are directed downwards, the MACD histogram is stable in the negative zone, the Stochastic is directed upwards.
Resistance levels: 12090, 12500, 13125 | Support levels: 11250, 10625, 10000
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Nikkei 225 - technical analysis
H4
On the four-hour chart above the level of 26581.0, there is the formation of the Three Black Crows candlestick analysis pattern, which signals the continuation of the downtrend. Following the quotes, the successive Gravestone Doji patterns formed, which usually appear at the top and are a signal for a price reversal. In the current situation, it is likely that the asset will decline to the support level of 25796, overcoming which will allow the “bears” to reduce the price to the range of 24575–23596. An alternative scenario is possible in case of an impulsive movement of quotes above the resistance level of 26865.0. Then the “bulls” will be able to reverse the situation on the market and start an uptrend in the area of 28263 – 30008.
D1
On the daily chart, there is a Bear Flag price pattern, the construction of which started from the resistance at 28263; however, after reaching the support level of 25796, the “bulls” regained part of the lost positions, reaching the area of 26581.0. However, a warning signal for a price reversal is the formation of a Hanging Man candlestick analysis pattern, which indicates that buyers have lost control over the market. In this situation, most likely, the quotes will continue to decline to the level of 25796, the overcoming of which will serve as a signal for a further downtrend to the level of 23596.
Support levels: 25796, 24575, 23596 | Resistance levels: 26865, 28263, 30008
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CAC 40 - Murrey analysis
The quotes of the CAC 40 index have been falling since the beginning of this month, but they are currently consolidating around the pivot level 5937.5 ([2/8]), which was already unsuccessfully tested in March. After its breakdown, the decline will continue to the lower border of Murrey’s trading range, 5625 ([0/8]), and further to the reversal zone to 5468.8 ([–1/8]). The key “bullish” level is the central mark of Murrey’s trading range around 6250 ([4/8]), supported by the middle line of Bollinger bands. If it is broken, the trading instrument will be able to return to 6562.5 ([6/8]) and 6718.8 ([7/8], the upper line of Bollinger bands).
In general, the downward trend in the market continues, confirming the downward reversal of Bollinger bands and the increase in the MACD histogram in the negative zone. The exit of Stochastic from the oversold zone does not exclude an upward correction, but it is unlikely to reverse the current trend.
Resistance levels: 6250, 6562.5, 6718.8 | Support levels: 5937.5, 5781.2, 5625, 5468.8
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DAX 30, H4
On the four-hour chart, there is a lateral movement of the asset within the boundaries of 12829–13323, and at the moment a Bearish Rectangle price pattern is being formed, the exit from which, most likely, can be carried out downwards, as well as a “bearish” Pattern Method of Three Falling, which signals about the continuation of the downtrend. Nevertheless, the growth of quotations is estimated as a probable scenario with a short-term correction to the resistance level of 13323, after which the instrument will resume its decline to the level of 12829. Breaking this level will mean that the Bearish Rectangle price pattern is entering its final stage and the downward movement will intensify into the support zone of 12533–11305. An alternative scenario can be implemented if the “bulls” fix their positions above 13323; then it will be possible to restore the price to the range of 14240–1512.
DAX 30, D1
On the daily chart, in the area of 13323, a Bearish Engulfing pattern is observed, which indicates that buyers could not hold their positions that day, falling to the level of 12829; however, immediately after it, a Bullish Engulfing pattern formed at the same level, which signals a price reversal at the bottom, although the buyers’ attempt was unsuccessful and the model did not receive confirmation of the market’s “bullish” mood. The signal for this was the formation of a “bearish” Shooting Star model under the resistance level of 13323. At the moment, the likely scenario is that the asset will fall to the support level of 12533, overcoming which will allow the “bulls” to head lower to the zone of 11947–11305.
Support levels: 12533, 11947, 11305 | Resistance levels: 13323, 14240, 15120
Dow Jones - US market remains negative
The pressure on the US stock market continues: despite the positive reporting, large companies predict a future performance decline. For example, microchip manufacturer Micron Technology Inc. reported a 1.5x increase in net income for the current quarter, its revenue was 8.64B dollars, and earnings per share rose to 2.59 dollars from 2.14 dollars a quarter earlier, but the corporation does not expect the same strong results in next reporting period.
Another negative factor is the situation in the domestic bond market: according to yesterday’s trading data, the yield of the leading securities began to rise again. So, at the end of last week, the rate on 10-year US Treasuries rose to 2.952% from 2.889%, while the indicator for global 20-year assets increased to 3.4332% from 3.3671% a few days earlier.
The index quotes move within a wide downward channel in the middle of the range. Technical indicators have significantly weakened the sell signal but still hold it: indicator Alligator’s EMA oscillation range has narrowed almost completely, and the AO oscillator histogram is forming new downward bars in the sell zone.
Resistance levels: 31915, 33290 | Support levels: 29968, 28312
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FTSE 100 - UK stock market in correction
The UK stock market continues to decline on the background of extremely weak reports of the leading components, which do not allow risky assets to grow during the correction period. At the moment, quotes of the leading London Stock Exchange FTSE 100 index are showing local corrective dynamics, trading at around 7112. In the corporate segment, more and more companies show disappointing results. Supreme Plc. announced a decline in revenue and earnings in 2022 due to falling demand for products, after which the company’s shares fell more than 12.7%.
The index quotes are trading within the global lateral channel, declining towards the support line. Technical indicators are in a quite steady sell signal state: the range of EMA fluctuations on the Alligator indicator is directed downwards and the AO oscillator histogram is trading in the sales area forming descending bars.
Support levels: 7011, 6760 | Resistance levels: 7200, 7480
Cisco Systems - technical analysis
The shares of Cisco Systems Inc., the largest manufacturer and supplier of network equipment for holdings and telecommunications companies, are correcting around 43. On the daily chart of the asset, the price is moving within a global downward channel with dynamic boundaries of 32–44, having reached the resistance line yesterday after an unsuccessful attempt to overcome the annual low of 41.
On the four-hour chart, the local movement within the channel is clamped into a Triangle pattern, the upper limit of which coincides with the global range resistance line at 44, which the quotes will try to break and reach the beginning of the price gap of May 18 around 47.8.
Technical indicators remain in the state of a sell signal, although indicator Alligator’s EMA oscillation range has begun to narrow, and the AO oscillator histogram is forming upward bars in the sell zone.
S&P 500 - waiting for US inflation statistics
The US stock market continues to decline, and yesterday’s drop in indices was one of the most dynamic in recent times. First of all, investors’ concerns are related to the growth of the consumer price index in the USA, data on which will be presented tomorrow. If the indicator exceeds 9.0%, an emergency increase in the interest rate by 100 basis points from the American financial regulator is not excluded, which could bring down stock markets at the moment, especially the high-tech sector, which traditionally depends on the cost of borrowing.
The index quotes are traded in a global descending channel, being in the middle of the range. Technical indicators continue to hold a stable sell signal: fast EMAs on the alligator indicator are below the signal line, and the histogram of the AO oscillator, holding in the sales zone, forms ascending bars.
Support levels: 3781, 3500 - Resistance levels: 3900, 4151
Trust Score 4.9
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MasterCard - Technical analysis
On the daily chart of the asset, a global sideways corridor of 306–380 is developing, within which the price has approached its lower border. There has not yet been a full-fledged attempt to consolidate below it but the likelihood of this remains quite high. The four-hour chart of the asset shows that if the quotes fix below the support level of 308, it is possible to continue to decline and reach an even stronger level of 280.
It is confirmed by the readings of technical indicators, which, working out a local correction, keep a stable sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are below the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram forms new bars below the transition level.
Trust Score 4.9
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Adobe Systems - technical analysis
On the daily chart of the asset, the formation of a downtrend continues, which may continue after the breakdown of the global year’s low at 350. On a four-hour chart, the price forms a local Flag pattern with the boundaries of 360 – 400, which increases the likelihood of a global downward movement after the breakdown of its support line.
Technical indicators reflect a possible continuation of the global decline: indicator Alligator’s EMA oscillation range expands downwards, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms downward bars in the sell zone.
Trust Score 4.9
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