Inner Circle Trader's 5k To 1mil - Live Trading Tracking Thread

If you are setting this kinda of challenge you generally trade with the broker you prefer. OANDA you can create sub-accounts like most brokers and transfers are instant. As far as I can see, if he doesn’t put more than 5k into this account within 36 months and makes a 1 million, challenge complete? PureMuscle you wouldn’t like John Kerouac if you are complaining about punctuation. Communication is the key, if you understand the message then it was effective.

In any event, back on the topic of the thread - @ICT: Will the trades that you take be of varying lengths (position trades, swing trades, scalps etc)? So far it seems like they were intended to be scalps, especially the second one yesterday. I’m sure a lot of us would like to see a nice, lengthy trade so that we can see the profit target-setting process in action :slight_smile:

I would take a guess that ICT will use all the tools at is disposal to get the right trade for him, and that wont be just one type of trade. Over time, if he doesn’t spit it with the crap going on in this thread, I would expect that there will be examples of many of his methods - all ones that fit exactly and not close as such so his win rate is higher.

Just my thoughts

You don’t know those things, if we did, then we’ll all be sitting on millions. But you know that statistically, there should be a 60% chance of a high or low being made by wednesday but in fact for those pairs, it’s 95% … and I’ve backtested this since 1999 and EVERY year is consistent. So it means the smart money know where they want price to be in the early part of the week. That’s a huge edge. Layer on that a daily bias (ie long or short) and you have a very simple strategy with a high probability “edge” …

The high of the week …

Since we are going off topic a lot here I’m going to try to post something productive.

I really like your scalping method and sometimes the wolves show up even on m5.


Thanks ICT and Bill Wolfe

1 Pick GBP/USD
2 Pick ANY week, any … last week, a year ago, 5 years ago
3 See anything interesting? Well of course the high or low is formed by end of play wednesday.
4 Now, let’s say you have a bias coming into that week, say price is approaching a big figure, a monthly, weekly or significant level and for argument’s sake, you are waiting to go LONG
5. Put point 3 and 4 together. And there my friend is your edge and a pretty good game plan.

This is one example. Simple isn’t it? Now work out your entry and exit, risk to reward and backtest for 5 years and fine tune accordingly… and you might want to use ICT’s kill zones within this …that adds a further “edge” for entry and exit …

Back to topic. ICT, you have made 4 trades this week with three winning trades - one being a “double tap” which is fine.

If you do that consistently, people will end up shutting their traps. It shows you do not have to be in a trade each and every day to be profitable. 1.34% profit for the week relatively stress free too (% off a $5k account - or 3.4% off money in the account)

I got similar last week, but could not find “my entry” this week and still happy. Good luck for next week. i hope it puts a few in their place.

As you always say, GLGT :cool:

What if you have point number 4 but on a Thursday?

Still on the long example:
If price hits your level on thursday, then you would expect the low to be made already so place your stop below that (plus some contigency pips for slippage, spread etc) and go long.

Honestly, just look at the charts, it’s an eye opener and I’m by no means saying I have cracked it because I haven’t. But I have made a huge leap forward knowing when the high or low is most likely to be made.

here’s an eye opener for ya,

You do realize that statistically there is an 84% chance of a weekly high or a weekly low to be formed on Monday through Wednesday even if highs and lows are equally distributed between the different days?

There are 5 trading days… Now just looking at an even chance of a high forming on any one of those five days it is 100/5=20% … We have three days for the high to be formed so that’s 3*20=60% chance of a high being formed mon-wed… That means 40% that it won’t.

Now we can do the same for a weekly low, and that gives us the same 60% chance a low occurs mon-wed … 40% chance it doesn’t.

Now since you are looking at chances of EITHER a high or low occurring mon-wed and not BOTH occurring … Then you multiply the chances of either of them NOT occurring together so .4*.4=.16 or 16% of EITHER NOT occurring mon-wed… Which means an 84% chance of EITHER OCCURRING…

So 84% chance based on zero statistical significance between the days… Pretty much means you get the results of what you have seen, but these are accurately demonstrating a random distribution… Where zero edge exists

Not bad. An eye opener would be what you showed but instead of making $30 or so from 16 trades, making $100,000 …
But still, not knocking you down, well done, impressive stats.

Or one could simply draw a horizontal line across known areas of support and resistance and call it a day.

you can only do so much with so little, no?

I remember something with MoneyNVRSleeps possibly a year or so ago, where he placed a high % of his account onto the trade as well. I agree, it is impressive to have 16 wins in a row. The best I have seen myself is 14 (also had a losing run of 5 though). Not the way I’d like to trade, but I am not the be all and end all of trading methods. If it works for him, then great stuff for him :slight_smile: Good luck to you MoneyNVRSleeps. I hope it continues to go well for you.

Thanks Bud, Many pips to you aswell,
*Hat Tip

84% vs 95% isn’t an edge?

Lol how many years did you go through?

ICT said 80% for a high or low to be formed by London open on [B]tuesday[/B]. I took it further to [B]wednesday [/B]and came up with the 95% number. You can slice the stats as you like (that’s my background, so I’m completely at ease) but it provides [B]ME [/B]with a [B]huge [/B]edge and that’s good enough for me.