yep, understand. It was a comment towards the strategy, there will be a risk formula in use as in 1 or 3 percent or any other. And if stepping up the effort in year 3 means change in risk, then it works both ways, because just as losing less from a small account in the first year, it could mean losing more form a large account in the 3rd year. Math-wise that evens out because one amount of money today does equal more money later, (npv of money, some call it that) however compounding only works forward.
without excessive work with spreadsheets and such it seems that a strategy based on variable risk favors the account when it aims at increasing the early balance in the account.
if stepping up means other entry techniques or change in trade frequency, independent of risk, then no comment right? we donât know what that means.
Iâve thought about it for a long time now, and you know what, I respect the fact that you are skeptical about ICTâs claims. You have every right to be - this is the internet after all! I can be a millionaire on here just by saying it! I am 100% in agreement that newbies who come to BabyPips are shepherded to ICTâs threads by some of the fanatical followers of ICT (no names mentioned, although one particular individual springs to mindâŚ).
You make an exceptional point that these fanatics push people ICTâs way without having any idea that there are indeed other manners of trading besides what he teaches. MANY other ways of trading, as is evident from the other threads on this forum and indeed from your own performance. I donât know if youâve ever looked at one of the ICT threads nowadays - almost all of the original followers no longer post in the threads. Why? Well, because aside from a few genuinely decent posts now and then, itâs become somewhat of a noob-fest with newcomers proclaiming instant success with the tools and posting win after win after win with seemingly no losses. Why do they do this? To be completely honest I do not know. Ask any of ICTâs older followers and theyâll tell you in no uncertain terms that forex trading is not, by any means, a way of becoming an overnight millionaire, no matter how effectively ICTâs tools work. It takes months and months of practice and taking those tools and finding a select few that work for you. Also, you canât escape the realities of the emotional side of trading. The guys who come to the thread and post endless tales of success are damaging the worth of ICTâs material because other newcomers catch the same fever and so it spreads, making it seem as though ICT is training FX masters in a matter of days - so the equation becomes: Follow ICT = Make millions overnight.
Every experienced trader on this forum knows that equation is not true, thatâs probably why they throw their toys out of the cot whenever they hear ICT followers making such ridiculous statements. And rightfully so I might add! I cringe whenever I see PPF or another follower making a post about ICT being a forex God. See, the problem doesnât lie with ICT or what he teaches, it lies with those guys who push the boundaries on what is technically and realistically possible with the tools. These guys have turned it into the âcultâ you mention. It was never ICTâs intention to have that kind of following. Iâm not sure if he enjoys it or not, but as a Christian, I HIGHLY doubt it. He has more than once admitted to his success stemming from his relationship with Jesus.
I am incredibly impressed with Mike at the moment. The losses have brought him down to earth. He is back to that same awesome dude I first encountered a good year and a bit ago. I do not know what brought about the ego which we have seen previously, but seeing how the market has humbled him and how he is not making excuses for the losses he has made is truly indicative of a person who is genuine. He may not be as successful as he claims - so what? What he has taught me in particular could very well lead to consistent profitability for me personally. In fact, Iâm willing to go so far as to say that it has already put me way WAY along that path to success. So the fact of the matter is, Michael has succeeded admirably in teaching me to trade FX. You cannot deny that. So even if he came to BabyPips and only succeeded in teaching one single student to trade profitably (and I can assure you there are way more!) then his entire purpose for posting here in the first place is justified.
No one can argue that ICT isnât trying his absolute hardest to bring success to as many newbie traders as he possibly can. What he has done on this forum and for the entire newbie forex trading community in general is completely selfless and done with a heart that is not set on monetary reward, but a reward in Heaven. And believe me, he is storing up treasures there like he could never imagine! Yes, he was losing it and letting it get to his head - wouldnât it happen to most of us too if we were in his place?
ICT puts so much effort into those videos that he produces - The quality of the content he presents is better in many ways than a massive portion of the paid courses available today - for sums in excess of $5000 at times! Can you imagine, if ICT did actually sell his content, he wouldâve made a good $1,000,000 in far less than 3 years - and funnily enough, what he would be giving the purchaser would be better than, if not precisely the same as any other content provider.
Can you just tell me one thing mastergunner? Aside from this whole $5000 to $1m story and all the ruckus that goes with it, has ICT done anything other than dedicate countless weeks and months and years to furthering the education of newbie traders on BabyPips?
For me, the moral of this entire story is that even if ICT blows $1,000,000 in the next 2 days, it would make little to no difference in my personal trading journey. Whether he is the absolute worst trader on earth or not - he succeeded in teaching me to trade - case closed.
TLDR
ICT has just as much right to be on this forum as you and I do - he has every right to share free information and he should never be judged harshly for doing it. He is putting his reputation on the line in front of a massive audience, you have not yet taken that leap and feel no need to, which you are entirely entitled to do. What would be really nice though is if you could give the poor guy some room to breathe and save your judgment until after he has either hit $1m or has gone bust. I can see no harm in that.
I respect your opinions mastergunner, believe it or not, and I can understand why youâd feel that it is improbable to turn $5000 into $1m. Please understand that some of us would just like to see an attempt at it - it appeals to our sense of challenging the impossible. Why not just sit back and relax and watch it all unfold?
You have it all wrong and you are stuck on 3 years as the final destination.
ICT did say that he was shooting for 36 months, but he also said if he makes it early or late it doesnât matter he will get thereâŚ
Itâs only been two weeks, lets give it some time before we start saying its impossible.
One thing we should discuss is his entry pointsâŚthe are not optimal and donât seem like what he has been teachingâŚto me it seems like he is chasing priceâŚmight be a case of him over sleeping the LO session tho.
Iâll answer simply. ICT bought into his own hype. He created this challenge after all. Had he done it previously he would have detailed how he would do it again.
Other than that, my questions on math are not a derailment. If anything it is to assist him Iâm understanding that itâs a tremendous undertaking and to help him devise a plan of action or a goal that is more obtainable.
Talking of details, is ICT using only the methods he teaches, can this account in due course be directly related to what is being preached? I donât use these methods, not because I disagree, but because I prefer to learn by doing, rather than being told what is supposed to work.
I think this is one of the better posts Iâve read on BP.
MG99, for a beginner, trading fx can be a very intimidating world, with thousands of possible things that one can try and even more people trying to make a profit from it. Nearly everything ICT teaches, he acknowledges that he picked up someplace else and he gives credit accordingly. However, he is someone who is sharing most of his own playbook with others, which not only tells newbies what to do, but also therefore shows what they donât need to worry about or pay for. It just helps for a professional at something to say âhere, do this, this is how I do this, and donât get mired up in thatâ
Iâve now worked for a couple of the larger financial firms, and although what I do is very far removed from the trading floor, Iâve seen talented people present information. I think ICT is the real thing, based on my experiences in life and professionally. I heard his voice last night, and I heard someone explain something matter of factly, and based on the tone and (lack of) tension in his voice, one could not tell that he had gotten off to a slow start on this challenge, he was just âmatter-of-fact.â I donât really care whether he succeeds at this or not (I hope so for the charities sake, but it wonât change my opinion) and I just assume he will, unless he just loses interest.
He claims 90% win rate and tends to only go for trades with a minimum of 3:1 reward to risk. At 2% risk with 1 trade a week the math works. Thatâs not to say it isnât a difficult goal to achieve. I think everyone would agree with that.
In his livestream video yesterday he said he made 635% in his large account last year. If thatâs true then I donât think he needs âhelpâ devising a plan of action. No offense but youâre just beating a dead horse at this point. People are going to believe what they want to believe.
Iâd rather not have this thread go in this direction. Iâll say this. Babypips has a great school of education. Second to none when it comes to teaching someone new. The FX-Men as a whole, however, are terrible traders.
Teaching is one thing. Playing is something else entirely.
I first found ICTâs material about 2 years ago, in early 2011. I was one of the original contributors to his threads, along with guys like ClarkFX, Hordane, Manta, etc - like me, a lot of names we donât see in ICTâs threads anymore.
While I cannot (and would not) speak for others, I wanted to add a couple of updates about my trading âPost-ICTâ.
When I first found ICTâs thread âWhat every new aspiring forex traderâŚStill wants to knowâ I had been trading for about a year. I had been using a lot of Tymenâs stuff (anyone remember that guy!?) and had burned myself pretty bad (luckily only with a relatively small live account). Not that my losses were anyoneâs fault but my own, just to say that I was skeptical of self-proclaimed âgurusâ since that early experience.
Iâll say that when I found ICTâs material, a lot of it, particularly the psychological stuff really resonated with me.
Most of his material IS good - regardless of what you may think of the attitude of itâs creator. Things like the lambo video kind of turned me off (anyone can rent a lambo for an hour to look baller). And a lot of the technical tools I consider pretty voodoo (even now). But having said that, I want to echo what PureMuscle said above, that the amount of effort the man put in, the polished and professional presentation of his work, is pretty darn impressive and I am very thankful for ANYONE taking that time for others, regardless of their motivation.
I no longer trade using ICTs tools (any of them). Thatâs not to say the donât work (they do), but I always found the biggest take-away from the material was that the best thing to do is to find what works for you, and do that.
I am now consistently profitable (live) with a simple, robust strategy mechanical/discretionary method that trades the dailys and has solid back-tested and walk-forward results. I still work the job day in day out, but I love it, so Iâm happy.
Say what you will to/about ICT, but this âex-followerâ at least, says thanks.
P.S. To MG and others, but particularly MG - I am also very skeptical of ICTs ability to reach his target. Notice that I have said it once - I believe that is all that is required. Your constant, repetitive need to display your skepticism and have the last word is bordering on the autistic, and says a lot about you - see you if can refrain from replying to this message - Iâll bet you canât!
it seems that a strategy based on variable risk favors the account when it aims at increasing the early balance in the account.