Hopefully this is big enough. It’s a 30 min so some detail is lost but you can look at it - week of Oct 22 2012. We were off a Gartley 222 pattern and bond yield divergence and at OTE in the higher TF so our bias is down Sunday night while writing our weekly analysis.
Green boxes Asia, red boxes are London, blue is NY (GO METS!).
Banks need to induce buying so they run up Monday to get street money long. Now there is enough demand that they can sell into it for a nice drop. If bias is down, Monday is up. The banks have to run the stops. Don’t worry about it, it has to happen. Monday needs it’s own daily stop run and another weekly stop run. Monday has a stop run down to the weekly pivot point in pink and weekly open in white (very close to each other for nice confluence). Day moves up as expected. Street money gets long (the weekly stop run). A London close trade is great on Monday this week (also Wednesday which we’ll explain).
Tuesday morning Asia ranges because they are scared of new H/L. Since monday was up we are expecting Tuesday to be down and we want in on Tuesday morning to get the weeks range. The drop off before London open is Frankfurt. PA hits the WPP and Wopen for a bounce offering us an in. The 5m chart gives us an OTE. My entry rules are “let the market show intention and get in at an OTE.” 5m chart shows both things. Trading plan says TP at 30 and leave some in since we are now in a sell program.
Wed has 2 great entries, one at open ( a turtle soup on the 5 min) and one after NY open when PA goes back to London open OTE. The London open turtle was only 4 pips past Asia’s range, pretty cool. Wed, London traded right to it’s ADR and a 20 level 1.2920 (also a 382 fib visible on a daily chart and a newly formed channel line) so they TP getting PA up to OTE and an 80 (1.2980) making for a nice London close trade. To me, the London close is great if you are trading in the direction of the overall trend meaning the price had to be moving counter trend up to that point. That’s what happened Wednesday. I hesitate to take a London close trade unless it has this condition and you always want your stops protected by some meaningful S/R. This is why I love to see Asia trade right into a S/R as it lets London run stops pretty easily and predictably and often mean they don’t even have to run stops. London close trade was worth about 30 pips here.
Thursday has another turtle soup and the WPP just a few pips above Asia’s range. Plus it was another reason to leave some in for the bigger trend.
Friday has an OTE from Asia’s range and another near London close but we’re out at that point.
Everything here is in ICT videos except the Gartley 222 pattern, which I look for and trust on higher TF’s (along with his other patterns). And watching the banks day to day this way is how you learn what they are thinking.
If I had traded exactly like my plan allows with no deviation, this week would have been worth a very safe several hundred pips, plus the ability to scale in to the longer trend. But how many traders lost their shirts picking tops and bottoms and getting in willy nilly only to see themselves stopped out and then the PA goes their way?!
Disclaimer: I have no idea what I’m taking about! But that’s how I interpret what I’ve learned and that’s the kind of screen shots that I post in my trading binder.
