scoping a possible long position…couple divergences showing up on the usdx and fiber…also bottoming pattern
Did you get in Long this morning?
1.3327 was looking good. I didnt trade it though…
US off today I think, possibly limited volatility. Some high impact news today, so that might help things one way or another…
There we go!
Typical 
Was that a Judas?
Quite possibly, but with better than expected results out of Spain, maybe we’re going to push higher to the big figure. We did get a really nice rejection @ 1.3380 (HTF noted level) though. Big news out of Germany tomorrow @ 10:00, are we positioning for that?
usdx completed a 1-2-1 (abcd) top on daily chart, and fiber h4 forming HS at 128 extension.
technical setup for fiber long
usdx:
Went short 13350 beginning LOKZ. Missed TP1 (30 pips) by 1 pip. Got out alive for 5 pips profit
My bias was bearish today, until the break of 13375 H4 swing high.
No trades NY, given the US Bank Holiday
I havent been active for discussions under this thread and other but i have been an active follower of ICT’s tools an analysis for past several months so i think i should say couple of words about him and his teachings.
It has been exactly one year since i have been introduced to forex and i m still practicing on a demo account. i can say that before i started following ICT you could have called me a regular loser in fx, however, now after following him for last couple of months i can see a big improvement on my trading with ICT’s tools.
i feel myself lucky bc i met his thread and his analysis. perhaps this saved couple of years for me that i would needed to spend to find out those tools myself.
to me, i can say undoubtedly that i m much better off after i met ICT and his tools. that is what is important for me.
if you read this post, i just want to say i really appreciate your efforts and guidance at least for me and i m sure there are other guys who think same with me.
GLGT
Interesting, not a bad idea for a trade, mainly because of the noted 79% retracement level for resistance, MS bearish. I’d have been eyeing the same level for TP1 for the Long. No loss though, thats the main thing 
I think I’ll sit this one out too, but I do suspect we’ll probably run up another bit.
Yet again the AR high providing good support. As we popped the high @ 1.3377, I’d have been looking to add to my position at that AR high level if today wasnt a holiday…
Holiday? Where?
Why was your bias Bullish, besides what you suspected (correctly) was a JS completed at just after LO ?
usd holiday, and ECB speech later this afternoon,
on assumption that fiber is unlikely to suddenly fall before the speech, and long preference from htf, took a long at 3348 with stop 28, after confluence of ote - testing the backside of trendline - power of 3 m15. If trade goes against, i’ll wait for a bounce at trendline to close b/e and possibly re-open at better price.
a bit of a testing day
entry 33340…but you wouldnt believe i missed the first opp to take profit as in i fell asleep:34: i manage my trades manually and missed the 700 potential exit so now ive added alittle to the position at the 33400 lvl. NOW i have a stop loss in at AR low looking for a position trade target 134600 area
When we make fresh lows the week before (especially at the end of the week - classic rally up into OTE, then larger selloff, confirming the bearish MS), I like to see a push higher at the start of the week (price correction) if we are in for the same type of thing. I’d be expecting the smart money to drive prices back up (accumulating their short positions - sell the highs, buy the lows, etc…). This corresponds with the idea that we should form the high or low for the week on Tuesday or Wednesday. We’re in a bearish MS, so we should form the weekly high midweek, then selloff into Thursday and Friday.
Ofcourse it doesnt always work like that, but you can be pretty nicely positioned at the start of the week to capitalise on the move up before the bigger move down and vice versa.
These are some of the things I’ve been looking at recently (and trading them) and it does happen quite a lot. Especially when you do start to have quite a significant trend either starting or continuing. Since the first of Feb we’ve had quite a big move south, with plenty of confirmation on the 1H and 4H that MS is indeed bearish, at least in the short term (Fiber). If we are to continue this leg downwards, I’d be looking at last weeks low to break along with the next higher time frame level of 1.3270/80 to break.
Its kinda hard to explain, but if you look at the charts, it does come up quite a bit. Low risk trade on Mondays and Fridays will keep you right and allow you test these ideas
It’s sort of what I was saying in a post I wrote a while back, if we’re in a bearish MS, then I’d be buying up into the sweet spots (providing that short term MS has turned bullish), then looking for signals to sell once we get there, to hopefully catch a bigger move down than the one we’ve just taken Long.
A quick image to illustrate (click for bigger pic) 4H TF:
Thats something that I’d be looking at as a potential trade idea this week to unfold…
Who knows
I like your analysis Jonnycab! I too think the same! Let’s see.
Jonnycab
Thanks for the two posts on MS, which is, imho, the most important single topic, as well as the most difficult to interpret ‘profitably’. It is a subject that requires more work on my part, so I’ll be interested on anything you are able to share in the future.
Hope that we can keep this thread going, on topic, given the recent unfortunate developments.
PS How did you link your chart to another server, as you have obviously done in your previous post?
Yes makes sense to buy into resistance in MM profile and then down. But hey we are not here to catch every move 