Hi PT
Thanks for replying to my question
I’ll check that out in future swings
Still getting to grips with this way of analysing the market; but in retrospect, the moves this week on eu have been easy to understand; overall a buy program; judas swing up on Tuesday, two pushes down to a reversal and then three pushes up
Plenty of potential trades using this material; looking forward to next week
Tommy, will def post it as soon as I’m finished - at Aug 13th on youtube now, I’m lucky to have one of those super fast BT connections, will post the youtube catalogue first, then I will start on the two livestream channels.
I know I keep saying it, but such a wealth of knowledge - and experience, I know that in many,many years to come these videos will prove an invaluable source for many aspiring and indeed experienced traders.
Seriously wow.
Weekly Pivot will be 1.2969 - a very strong magnet and only 17 pips away.
Monthly Pivot will be 1.2894 - not a strong magnet
Bottom of consolidation is 1.2867, top is 1.3172.
Last ITL labeled #2 - 1.2881
Harmonic from #1 to #2 = 128.
If you look at the last down trend, the early week was up and Wednesday or so it all came down again. This up trend has been that exact same profile. Down early week and up the rest of the week. If we form a fractal below 3, 3 becomes a ITH. If we preserve 2, we are in a buy program.
Plan for next week: We have Turtle soup at the big figure1.3. Drop to at least the WPP, which is very near the 50% of the last up thrust. Watch for signs of reversal and get in long. Watching for OTE of last swing high at 1.2937. If we break #2, we are in a sell program again.
We are in the OTE of the LTH and are due for some correction, though the 1-2 swing may have been it. Target of this up thrust would be that LTH or the top of the consolidation.
Confluence resistance is 1.2933-37 (38% and 50% + trendline+50EMA. If we are short early week, this is a great place to enter long, to me. Stops below the #2 ITL - the harmonic of 128 puts us at 1.2900 even making #2 a great place to hide stops behind. We’ll know we were wrong if this is broken so no need to move stops around.
Or I could just get in willy-nilly, as usual!!
ICT, if you’re reading this thread, we have an issue with market structure. Your trade plan 6 video describes rules that are different than your indicator shows.
Video shows Larry Williams 3 candle patterns as the basis for forming ITL/H, but your indicator uses 5 candle fractals as the basis for ITL/H.
If memories servers me correctly ICT have stated many times that he considers a 3bar a valid fractal high/low, and I assumes this is correct for ITH/LTH too 
Hi Vinster, it’s true that ict does use 3 bar swing as a fractal because as he said “i am more price astute”. But from his video STT he used both 5 bar fractals as well as 3 bar as examples.
Anyway i think you might want to give this indi a go which is absolutely awesome.
lMarket Structure.zip (58.9 KB)
HTH
Perfect - it uses the 3 bar fractals. Thanks. Why does the “ICT - Market Structure” indi use 5 bar fractals?
I am not 100%, but i don’t think it uses 5 bar(unless i am wrong) i think it just shows most significant swing points as small insignificant swings are only going lead to false signals from what i have observed i.e lower lows higher highs ect.
Also one thing with Market Structure i also observed if it breaks a LTL by few pips, but does not close below it then Ms is still the same prior to it breaking LTL. I have observed this visually over many charts, but could be wrong. Just sharing and if wrong be happy to be corrected.
Off to sleep 2 am got to be up in few HR. Still want to re-watch trading NY session webinar. I find that i am slowly getting used to terminology and interworkings behind some of the concepts.
GLGT :31:
The indicator shows Intermediate term highs and lows and long term highs and lows. the fractal indicator and the power of three show short term highs and lows. a short term high is a candle with 2 lower bars on either side and intermediate term high is a high with 2 short term highs on either side and a long term high is a high with two intermediate term highs on either side. and reverse it for lows
I have a feeling everyone with the chest hair to post their entire weeks trading balance will make rapid progress just from the embarrassment factor acting as a restraint. I’ll post my balance at the end of the week too. Looking for two or three good trades and that’s it.
Just having some fun playing around. Retired life gets boring sometimes lol. Headed to the beach, Have a great weekend.
I think the thing here too is that there are trades that don’t work out, and bad trades, and yes and I still do the odd bad trade, if I do a good trade that goes wrong I’ll post it, if it’s bad trade I don’t see it’s much use showing that, and if it’s a bad trade I know it’s bad trade, and it’s just something I got to iron out.
But I think what’s important is to understand the difference between them both, and the easiest way to do that is to zoom out and then you can probably see that you were doing the wrong thing in the wrong place in the market.
Like to first thank Michael for his vast wealth of knowledge that he continues to share with us. I was super pleased with Friday’s trading. Went short on Fiber at 1.3023 after judas swing up into LO Killzone. More importantly was my Take Profit that was triggered which was set at 1.2969. Ended up trading the full range of the day!
Entry:
Reason for 1.2969 was confluence of Asian Session low and fib ext 161.8 from Judas swing up into LO Kill zone:
Take Profit Triggered:
That is close to how I feel.
This past week was my first real week of trading. I was very excited to finally start trading with real money. Seeing people posting screenshots of marked up trades scoring 40 to 100 pips was driving me crazy to get in on the action.
I blew about 10 percent of my small initial deposit on a combination of garbage scalps and one big rising triangle pattern that I knew for certain was going to go exactly how I wanted it to and was going to be my first real big trade. So I went way over risk limit and ended up stopped out.
Friday night was painful to sit in the forum reading about people nailing the late EUR/USD movements and racking up pips. I was almost out of my mind in frustration. I knew that I was falling victim to the lack of discipline that ICT and other Forex traders constantly talk and warn about. I even sunk so low as to try to one final pitty 0.01 lot 5 minute scalp near the end of Friday just try to salvage some dignity and ended up blowing it too. Self pity and despair became farce.
I closed Metatrader down and closed my babypips forum tabs and tried to calm down and put Forex trading out of my mind for the present and focus on the neglected parts of my life from spending the past three weeks studying Forex material almost every waking hour.
By Saturday when I awoke I hand calmed down and had time to reflect on my disastrous first week of trading.
I have a huge amount of money to dump into trading - enough that even just a few solid trades could pay for a year’s living expenses. All of ICT and other Forex trader’s warnings and instruction on proper money management discipline saved me from possibly blowing an obscene amount of money on garbage or woefully misguided trades. Even though I went way over reasonable risk percentages, my actual dollar losses were relatively small in absolute dollar amount.
Comedians talk about one of the most important things in becoming a professional is to get your first bombing in front of a real live audience over with and realizing it isn’t the end of the world and something you are no longer afraid of. I feel like this past week was that bombing for me. It would have been better if I had blown my first real trades with more reasonable risk percentages, but I was thankfully working at least in the ballpark of sane trading percentages. I see how keeping my trades around the 1 percent risk range will allow me the luxury of having a disastrous week and it not affecting my mental state. I knew that before, but there is nothing like experiencing the reality of the theory for learning.
Doubling down on a bad trade is still a bad trade. X * 0 = 0. Yes, not exactly a revelation. But this past week really brought home the need to have a plan and stick to it. “I will make no more than three trades this week” “I will risk no more than 1 percent each trade”. Much of my mistakes in the first week of trading remind me of the problem of waiting to go food shopping until you are really hungry. You end up buying a huge amount of garbage you don’t really want to be eating. With Forex trading you don’t want to be making your decisions right there when you make your trade. You should have a checklist of preconditions that need to be satisfied before entering a trade. Does the trade setup meet all of your preconditions? If yes, take it. No? Skip it. Never because you really want it. Or because you haven’t had any trades this day or week and feel compelled to do something.
A bad trade on Wednesday isn’t blown on Wednesday. It was blown on the previous Sunday when you didn’t do your pre-week market analysis of key support levels, ranges, and everything else that ICT has lectured about.
One last thing I learned from this past week. I should have at least made a few pips out of sheer dumb luck. The 90 percent of all Forex traders losing money never really seemed that surprising since I know there are large numbers of people who sitting down and doing research on a subject is something they are unwilling to put the effort into. They take their 500 or 1000 dollar savings account and blow it on a few ‘big score’ trades and give up. However, there is something more that I feel I learned this past week. I feel that I really see now how the Forex market’s Big Money moves the market with intent of fleecing the small time investors who jump on what they believe to be trends only to have them quickly reverse and blow their stop losses(or worse). I believe that if had actually done the exact opposite of my gut feeling trades this past week I would have actually come out with huge first week instead of nothing but losses.
So I took it on the chin this past week and it wasn’t really that bad. Fear of the market has been replaced by a fear of my own lack of discipline. That is a healthy fear.
My forecast for the week is based on this reflection.
I’ve done some scenarios
AK i am so with you on this one. NO one talks about bad losing trades only good once. Its like some, just never lose.So i solute you for it, although i am sad at the same time, losses are never good , i know:(
I have seen you trade well, i know you will bounce back from it back in to drivers seat.
very nice, honest recount of events, it takes strength to look inside this way. Perhaps you are open to hearing about this experience and some red lights to keep an eye on. Three weeks of intense and purposeful study is not much at all in the large picture of what the market will make it necessary for you to go through. If you like strategy games, think of technical know how as first couple of levels… the next level is where you understand how you play, and the next one where we understand how they play. in that sense it’s a journey lasting beyond weeks and months, and sometimes it’s good to know about it upfront.
About the large amount of money, i respectfully suggest to keep it out of the game until you begin to acquire good entries and exits on the statement. Because what will happen if you don’t, it is that there’s no amount of money the market will not take. And the more you have, the more it will take, until and unless you have own evidence to it be otherwise.
looking back on my live trading, i have done the kinds of things, it’s painful to even remember about, and that was day in and out, for a long time… even though it seemed each day carried a lot of lesson, there were still many days left to go through and still are. It’s not like this for everyone, but it has been so for me.
all that aside, wishing you much success in this endeavor. Protect yourself, and play well
Stick at it traders, it’s still early days for a lot of you, you really don’t know how lucky you are, I only came by these methods about 5 years into my trading career, after they’d been under my nose for about 2, but now the material is just getting better and better.
I tell you what the BIG difference is, previously when I traded, I would say take a 50:50 with higher profits than losses, I would trade a setup, that I figured would win about half the time, so when you obviously take more in profits than losses from those trades, you’re gonna do OK, but even in hindsight sometimes, I could not differ from a losing setup and a winning setup, you just accept the loss as part of trading.
BUT with ICT methods, always in hindsight I can see a trade was wrong and why it was wrong, and with that you can build on it, if you’re new, you still might not see it in hindsight, but it will come, you will be able to decipher them.
Last couple of weeks I’ve posted winning setups on the forum before the event, I’m not saying that these were the only trades I took, I also took some other losses and some winners, to be honest, all this ICT stuff is making me a bit lax on my discipline! But if I started posting everything I do on the forum, it would be overrun with my postings, and I’m bad enough of a forum chatterbox as it is, but from the feedback I get, I think it’s worth it, it helps me, and it seems to help you.
Onwards and upwards.
PPFX True that…
