Divergence shows shorting pressure on the EUR:
Looks like it wanted to tag the 1.31000 before heading down:
Looking for shorting OTEs.
I think that was the reason most were thinking of shorting today at the big figure, myself included. But I also look at it as a counter trend trade. I want to be able to maximize the number of potential pips. Now if we should slide from the 1.31 figure, then the next support level is the 1.3080 institutional level we had some nice action around it today.
This would have given 20 pips, perfect for a scalp (my max counter trend trade is 30 pips for a scalp before i close out 80% or more of the position). A 10 pip SL @ 1.31 would have been high enough to clear the high for the day, just incase we did trade a bit higher before dropping, giving 2:1 reward to risk. That was one of the reasons I was holding out for the retest of 1.31.
I can see how the break of 15m MS, the seemingly new fractal high (set on Tuesday so possibly setting a wkly high) and the big fig attraction to short are getting alot of attention but there is one thing we should still bear in mind - we have not yet taken the stops out of the 17th Oct. high around the 3135 level. My guess is that with the momemtum we have right now on the Euro (now Greece has been firmly kicked into the new year) we will see a raid up to this level - maybe even higher to take the stops above 3170 from (coincidentally) the 17th Sept.
With this in mind Iām still long biased heading into tomorrow when we can get a better picture.
Hey Michael,
Thank you for video!
Heās probably just looking for reasons to quit. I have accounts with FXCM and Oanda, they are just fine as well.
iām in the same trade, aiming for a break of the asian low
Yeah, it should know where to go Iāve shown it the blue path 
Itāll take a while to unfold though.
I third that trade
Itās going slow, very slow. @ 1 point i was 19 pips up just short of 20 to move the stop to BE, but it did not get there.
If it did, i would have been taken out any way. Not sure how this will play out, but itās sure has hā'll playing with my emotions man.
Yes, I was tempted with this too but going to wait for Asia session and have a look in the morning before work.
an example of a trade taken with structure and oteās, since structure has come up quite a bit lately. Chart is a 30min pound-yen.There was a top made at point X, then price retraced and formed an intermediate term low, marked with the blue crosses. Low was taken at checkmark point, structure broken, and therefore now looking for short trades. Point B was a great entry point, i didnāt get that one. But it was very clear, a 79 retrace of XA and reflection on YA, sort of an ICT text-book type of entry. Now watch what happens: price goes down and stops at C, which is right at 79 retrace of AB. Could this be seen as Judas out if asian range to go long to B first target? Sure thing, if we didnāt notice the break in structure. Traders who entered long at C, where would they have placed stops? Point A at the very least for 20 some pips, so point A (and not C), was TP1 for this trade.
Second opportunity for short entry was in D area, on confluence of short premise, 62 retrace of BC, top of asian range, and nyo killzone. Also the MM profile is quite visible, up AB to eventually go down to E and possibly lower, for stops below the asian range 3 days to the left.
well i have this program for the screenshot, lets see how the pic turns outā¦ otherwise iāll have to learn how to post better shots of these!
Well, maybe the resistance just wasnāt there really, not too bad a trade plan though.
was at the gym and just got home. i donāt like the higher high. i closed 70% at break even, minimizing risk. will reevaluate tomorrow LO.
Iām aware of ICTās issue with FXCM and was leery at first, but theyāve been great. I also havenāt had any issues with Oanda, but it is a small account and I havenāt traded LO much with it. I didnāt notice any spikes in the spreads. Do you know if it was US accounts and Canadian accounts that were seeing the large spikes, or maybe just the Canadian accounts?
Asia Baby, make me happyā¦
.:18:
Whatās the issue with fxcm?also I donāt think high spreads in news is a problem he usually in the trade before that. I trade LO with oanda and Iāve never had a problem. I have watched as spreads increase to 20 pips but I was already in the trade.
PipsARush - I believe I am right - but if I am corrected, I will learn too.
BOTH arrows drawn are in fact ITH - and the blue circle between your arrows would be a LTH - -
I think the basic definition if there are two midterm highs on either side of a higher high - that is what indicates its a long term high - - ā so with both your arrows you do have short term high on either side - so both are intermediate term hhighs
hasta la vista, baby
Not happy, not happy at allā¦ I have babysitted you the whole day and you betray me like this? :28:
Ahh well, leave and learn.:60:
Just got hit by a train. No counter trend trades on the cards? or reduce risk to bare min if going counter? i think second sounds more reasonable. As long as counter lines up technically sounds why not take a shot at it, grunted Michael shoots with Barrett 50cal, me with BB Gunā¦ :54:
