You should be dropping risk to 1% after a losing trade 
I took a fib from last wkās tuesday high to todayās high. That combined with MS not being broken on the 4 hr and the euro seasonality raising in Decā¦ I know the Daily is showing a Fractal in the 3100 level so I do expect a pull backā¦
How should I be looking at this?
What is Turtle Soup?
I have been through 90% of the first videos and up to Module 5, I have not seen an ICT explanaintion of āturtle soupā. He talks about it often but, not an in depth explanation. Have I missed ICTās explanation on how to define it. Can someone give me some insite or a link to where ICT explains it in a video.
I am I close if I defined turtle soup as a small price range near a S or R level.
My mid-week notes on daily charts: ( remember Iām zoomed out on the mt4)
DJI - The big line here (on my chart) has been 13280 - resistance, support,resistance - pulling away from a re-test - taking fib from there down to low and we are in ote area.
Nasdaq - line here is 2790 - resistance etc ā¦ taking fib from there to low - we are back in ote area.
SP 500 - most recent high to low - we are in ote area
Fibre - long term high to most recent low - we are at 38% fib / ITH that we pulled away from (former support etc.) - 3450
fib from there to most recent low - we are in ote area
Cable - most recent ITH to most recent low - we are back at 62%
(ICT teaches us that we can pull our fib from where price pulled away from, even in short term charts that can be a big fig etc)
These all hint at the possibility of risk off, long term, to me.
USDX - - clearly coming off 78.50 - to me it was very significant that this line held back in Sep - so taking fib from there to most recent high and guess what - yep OTE area - (more risk off) - remember -zoom out.
Just the thoughts of a rambling newbie
Will ramble on the bond market later.
Updated my Asian Range indi following some things from Part 7.
Extends Asian range until end of next day, extends last Monday and Friday to the end of the chart.
Ah yes, but if you do that, then you would need a 1:2 Risk:Reward ratio just to get you back to break-even after a 2% lost trade.
Then if you lose the second trade, youāre down 3% and start trading at only 0.5% risk a trade. Now you would need a 1:6 Risk:Reward ratio trade to get you back to [B]break-even[/B]. Of course you wouldnāt go for a 1:6 R:R on a single trade, but Iām just highlighting how far back a single loss will set you.
Full explanation from ICT at 17.00 mins
Inner Circle Traderās Market Review 06/24/12 - YouTube
Also gets a mention here at 11.00 mins
Im thinking along the same lines as this. Mainly because of the USDX action today. We didnt make it all the way down to the 79.50 level, but that 79.70 level looks to be support now, we had some resistance at the 79.80 level, but I suspect weāll blow through that tomorrow or Friday (weāre right up at that level now).
Im not really sure how it will go over the next few days, but I think weāll probably make it back up to that 80.00 level soon.
I get the feeling that its too obvious for shorts (on the Cable & Fiber), but everything seems to be pointing to that.
Also, could someone with access to a USDX feed do me a favour?
Could you take a look at this tool I found:
US Dollar Index Realtime Chart | USD Index Real Time Chart
And let me know how accurate it is compared to your own feed? From what I see, it seems pretty accurate/reliableā¦
Quite nice I think for a quick peak at the USDX if your broker doesnt provide a USDX feed, or if youāre not able to access your charts/MT4 (if you use MT4). It also has a decent range of Fib tool etcā¦
Looks fine to me.
Waiting at the boarding station in LOKZ.
Yesterdays move down was met at ADR from the weekly high, I expect to see leg 2.
Just a plan, nothing written in stone.
Why do you think this scenario is going to unfold? Is it based on something ICT teaches, or what? 
Iām asking because Iām very new to this type of analysis, so itās not at all because I disagree with you! Itās just nice to know what to look for, and so on.
Eyeing the same setup
That is how trading and equity management works my friend! Do that same math while risking 2% the whole time and you will be happy that you cut your losses.
I think the whole idea of it is to risk 1% until you have made back at least half of what you lost while risking 2% and by the time this is accomplished you are no longer in the losing mindset and ready to risk 2% again.
Remember, we are not trying to get to break-even as quickly as possible from a losing trade (on to the next one), we are simply trying to preserve capital.
By the way guys, ICT talks a lot in his videos about closing half of your possition, or closing 70% of your possition, and so on. But, how do you do that in MT4? Do you open your initial trade in two halfs, and then pay double the spread, or whatā¦?
As indicated, Part 7 holds a big clue as to how we shall proceed. Learning market structure and the market maker profiles will be completely invaluable.
Briefly, this is what we are a looking at (based on damagecontrol90ās charts):
Note the upper red xās. They are making lower highs. Note the lower red x, this is a new low that formed on the 15M time frame that was lower than the low formed on the 4th December at 16:00.
This indicates that we have broken market structure to the downside and that a new trend may be in the works.
The reason for damagecontrol90ās chart looking like it does with the blue lines (what is being anticipated) is that we would like to see a confirmation of that downward trend by first breaking the lows of today (the lower red x) and then we retrace back up towards the sweet spot (62% - 79% fibonacci retracement, the key point being 70.5%) before we start heading down lower.
If we dont get the lower low first, then we may have a trend continuation.
You open your trade with a size of say 10 lots. Once youāve reached your first take profit objective (30 pips or whatever), you would edit that position such that you would close out 5 of those lots at the current market price, leaving the remaining 5 lots on. You would then trail your stop loss to break even and let the remaining 5 lots continue in the hope that price will continue in the desired direction. Once the 2nd take profit objective has been reached (maybe at the 127% fib level or 162% level), you would close out the rest, or however you wish to manage the remainder of the 5 lots (sell off another 3 lots and leave 2 on if you think price will keep going in your favour).
Thank you so much for both of those answers Jonnycab! I will have to watch the part 7 video tommorrow!
But, you say that to close half of my trade, I have to edit my position - how do I do that in Metatrader 4ā¦?