Brilliant. I’m very new to this but looking at your marked charts, the ICT concepts and price action were quite easy to read and as you rightly said, by “patiently” stalking price, the market came to you with great OTEs. Of course, when ICT is doing this in his reviews, it’s all so very obvious, but for the first time, in the past week, I did what you just illustrated here and it was a little encouraging to start seeing the things that he’s showing us continually. I’d been feeling discouraged (realistically I should not since I’m just learning), but in his first instalment of the Trading Plan Series he said " … forget about the money, learn to trade…" and funny enough, that helped me focus on translating the concepts onto a live chart and felt less pressure to enter a trade so I can see my demo account moving. It felt good and I hope it’s the beginning of learning for me. Thanks ICT and to the rest of you who’re constructive in your posts.
In case you are wondering… I am waiting for my local Best Buy to open so I can pick up a new Laptop. I will be upgrading to Camtasia version 8 and the 2nd and 3rd portions of the TPDS will be posted as soon as I render them. I tried over the last few days to resolve the matter… but for whatever reason… the videos when I render them [make them viewable to Youtube] the process freezes at about 45% and while the video appears to be complete… when playback is made… it’s not complete.
I certainly appreciate the patience and continued support of this and all my work.
:57:
just a quick heads up Re:Camtasia, the new version 8 (running the demo now), takes a lot less resources compared to old one which it seams they’ve dropped the support for completely. v. 7 crashed my rather powerful (ish) desktop on many occasions, but v.8 havent done so (yet)…
Gah wish you asked around before buying from bestbuy, they are terrible…
Nightmares return
Noo Noooo NOOOOOO GET AWAY SERVICE PLAN
NO I DONT WANT A 3 YEAR OR MORE SERVICE PLANNN
AHHHHHh
Also that could be a multitude of reasons
have you tried re-rendering?
or
is someone being really silly with your net connection and cutting you right at the 45% mark lol
So noticing that the Pro Trader’s Club or the Market review isn’t up yet I’ve decided to forecast my forecast on what plausibly ICT would be looking for or at, also this is an added effort for me to see if my mindset is aligned correctly and to show myself that I only need to watch those to confirm what I already think.
So here we go Puts on ICT voice this is the Dollar Index
[IMG]http://i.imgur.com/6KmVn.jpg[IMG]
I’m suspecting that it may rise into the OTE or 79.52 before we possibly see lower prices and if we go down we may see 78.88 as a plausible area of support and if we go further 78.48 of maybe even 77.20, a level I marked well below my chart pic atm.
Which means I’m expecting a plausible pull back in foreign currencies in order for us to get long.
However if we bounce from 79.52 we may see the 80 level and the 80.50 on the dollar index
Which obviously would mean lower foreign currencies
Now lets look @ the pound
We are in optimal trade entry for a short as denoted by the previous PTC videos yes I know but i’ve seen it before as well and we may see a pull back to the 1.6180 or even the 1.6050 level if we decide to pull back even further to find some support. However if we were to go higher we may retest 1.6250 and 1.6300 and use them as support to try and grab for 1.6520 institutional level
If I was to look for a long I’d probably think they’d try to bring price back to around 1.6180 - 1.6200
However everything is really dove tailing nicely for a short despite my hunch on a bullish outlook 
mainly because if you look @ the DX its so close to a region of resistance as well as denoted by the fib we are also in OTE.
Now lets look @ the fiber
Now with the fiber we are also in OTE for a short I’m suspecting 1.3014 or 1.3020 institutional as a plausible level of support if we go lower we may see price go to 1.2900, 1.2820, 1.2650 as possible levels to pull back to.
I’m look at 1.2820 to 1.2850 as a plausible area for an OTE long based on the still bullish market structure with the plausible higher price retests of 1.3120 , 1.3260, 1.3350
Overall I’m look for pull backs to go long but I wouldn’t mind an intra-day short if it presents itself
I’m still bullish until the market structure I would guess breaks at
Fiber: 1.2600 or maybe 1.2300
Cable: 1.5700
I await your critiques, also to enlarge the pics open it in a new tab, I’ve loaded them to imgur because BP has this thing about compressing your imgs the the point of blurry.
@Tansen, sounds good man.
From my charts above Im watching pretty much the same levels that are already marked, while noting the new high formed on the Cable. Possibly another retest of this level before a slide lower (similar to this past week), then a bounce to higher price objectives overall (but this may take a few weeks if we remain bullish overall). Another initial slide lower (to coincide with the dollar OTE objectives being reached), before we start running back up again in the euro/pound…
Adding for the Cable: To maintain the bullish market structure this week a bounce off the 1.6210/1.62 level (OTE based on last weeks low->high) or even the 1.6180 institutional would be a reason to stalk these levels.
We also had higher highs made on the Cable, and lower highs all week on the Fiber, possibility for another run higher, seeing as we’re at key resistance levels on both pairs from the higher time frame analysis…
You may have noticed that I’ve not been posting recently, but I’ve been keeping well up to date on developments 
I saw the JackParkIt posting on the other thread and was thinking this is exactly the reason why I’m not posting, I’d had enough of these petty posters that have no idea what they are doing, either that or they know exactly what they are doing and are selfish little so and so’s that don’t want to accept that a bunch of good guys that have just gravitated towards a great trading methodology are doing as well as they are and even better than they are, and they don’t like it.
But then I thought, it’s not fair on you serious guys that want to be making real profits and are deadly serious about trading that these pillocks derail threads and try and put off aspiring newbies that may have not registered yet.
So no, we won’t let them get to us will me???
So lets get down to business, I have developed an indicator that really works like a dream, it’s based on the Stochastic RSI, It’s default setting are for the 15m chart, my favourite, well actually, the StochRSI is my favorite indicator, now as you know I’ve never been a big fan of indicators, UNTIL NOW. In my earlier development as a trader, after I toyed around with every single indicator you could find, I did make use of the StochRSI for a while, I did some postings on it. But then after watching ICT’s videoa, I had an Ahaaa moment, and from that I have developed this indicator, the Blue line is the higher timeframe, I use 21 as a StochRSI setting and then the Blue line becomes 421, i.e. 4 15m, then the Black line is the USDX on the 15m, and then red line is the 15m, and what we are looking for is either convergence or divergence, when all the lines are OS or OB, then it’s a strong indication needing little confirmation, same with divergence, blue line wants to be flat, black line ideally close to the red line, and the red line OS or OB, these are the best trades, they absolutely fly, like a spring.
That’s a trade I did take on Friday, it crowned my week, and for anyone saying that this is all hindsight stuff, I’ve been posting pre-setups on my site for my users to make use of, and it’s worked out pretty well, even if I do say so myself, but this is what ICT’s stuff has given me, that extra confidence and understanding, to be able to help everyone more.
As I’ve been typing this post, a setup has been developing, but I’ve not taken it, too early yet, and the range is too small, but it illustrates how good this indicator is.
And here it is, and as always complete with code.
Happy trading.
Trade idea for the day, Short GBP @ 1.62700 for the following reasons:
Macro:
- Yield Divergence between US treasuries and UK/EU bonds
- potential bounce in USD
Trade:
- OTE from Fridays High to todays Low
- Significant S/R level and Psychological level 1.62700
- With in HTF OTE
- SMT divergence between EU GU on the 4 HR chart
- Break below Fridays low signifies change to bearish market structure in the short term
Potentially be a One shot One Kill Trade…
-Ivan
maybe maybe not
fiber made a lower low, cable did not, Dollar index is at OTE for a plausible short however its dancing above that support or resistance level I suspect it was trying to sweep out the 1.2920 lows
Am i right in assuming that before a major news release, there is a SMT divergence often. As the move is very huge, i see that there is a SMT 10 mins prior to the news release. Did anyone notice it ?
And there we have it, clear as day, I was in this trade before the news, and was at BE before it, then it’s off like a spring, the rest of it you know.
There we are, the ICT inspired StochRSI divergence strategy, back of the net, someone pass me a tissue, my profits are making my eyes water!
uh… I think I’ll have to read this few more times to get my head round it, but I’m sure you’re onto something here… this works only on 15 min chart, right?
Also, since you’re into codding 'n stuff… maybe you could do something similar to this:
Commercial Index
I think it is very similar to what you already did with your COT report indi (at least uses same data)
, but is some kind of percentage of change based line. Quote from Mr L. Williams himself:
…when the red line is high and above 80% — the Commercials have been doing a lot of buying, and prices usually rally. By the same token, when the line is low — below 20% — they been doing a lot of selling and prices usually decline.
…In this next chart we’re looking at the Commercials Net Position in Soybeans. Please look at the black horizontal line in the Commercial panel (red line indicator). When the red line is above the black it means the Commercials have been doing more buying than they have selling.
…It isn’t just a question of the Commercials being long or short, but how massively long or short they are…
The question here what is the starting point, I guess? % change based on what?.. As ICT teach us to look for extreme COT positions for 1 and 4 year period, probably best bet is this %-ge to be based on the most extreme position (being long or short) for last 4 years (this would give us long term trend) or maybe to have an option to flip between 1 and 4 year extremes… dont know if this makes sense, I lost myself here, lol I think is easy enough to be done in excel, but when comes to mql4 errr I’ll give it pass
The problem is (well not problem but inconvenience) this got to be updated weekly, which reminds me to ask: did you get around to update your COT indi files yet, 2 weeks of data missing now. I tried to update the .csv but doesn seams to work, in fact lost the whole 2012 data, not sure why didnt work as I pasted the data in exact same format as yours…?
cheers
In theory it should work on all timeframes, the HTF multiple needs to be changes though, like 3 on the 5m chart to get the higher timeframe, that’s why it’s 4 on the 15m, so it’s 4*15 to get 1hr. I have it on my daily chart at the moment, looks pretty useful.
The COT report I don’t make that much use of, I might not be updating the CSV file long term, but here is what yo need to do, download this file - http://www.cftc.gov/files/dea/history/com_fin_txt_2012.zip and get the first line of the pair you wish add the data and paste it into the CSV file, in the ‘experts/files’ directory.
The data is a week out of date, I think that’s why it looks 2 weeks out of date.
You could put any data you wish from a CSV file into the indicator, I’ve coded the CSV reading bit so it’s easy to figure out how to match it to a CSV file of you choice.
Yeah your probability increases the higher your time frame but your predicted moves kind of lessen but can be HUGE
congrats on the trade mate.
I’m afraid I don’t have a clue on how to use your indicator;)
Your explanation before is also not turning on a light inside my scull;)
are you just looking for divergences of the red,blue and black lines? And is it working best in conjunction with volume? (volume is another topic I have yet to digg deeper into…)
Sorry, maybe I’m a little slow haha but would be cool to get more detail on how you use it…
I’ll download and install it in a spare minute and check it out… thanks for it!
edit: so after rereading your previous post a few dozen times this is what I understand:
you want:
blue line=flat
black line = close to red line
red line= oversold/overbought
what is missing for my humble brain to really grasp the whole thing is: why?
edit2:
please allow me to repost one of your pictures, edited by me for additional markers:
![http://i.imgur.com/6KmVn.jpg[IMG]](http://i.imgur.com/6KmVn.jpg%5BIMG%5D){kind=link}
would you have entered where I drew additional circles?
I am in no way critical to your work, I am just trying to figure out how to use your tool!
what confluences are you looking for in order for it to be a valid entry to you liking?
How does your tool provide more accurate signals than a regular stochastics oversold/overbought?
just trying to connect the dots, to be able to test you indicator myself, as it seems like it is paying you very well…and I wouldn’t mind an additional well-paying-tool in my arsenal;)
cheers
Hey,
I have also back tested this Indi and that looks very interesting. There are areas where it doesn’t actually work but as I understood from PPT explanation he is looking for some additional confluence/confirmation.
So PPT, could you please put some more light on this!
Thank you and GLGT!
The other circles you wouldn’t enter with because it’s the Asian session.
It’s part of the whole ICT methodology, it’s not a standalone thing, so you need to be looking at your longer term premise and your levels etc etc. but what you want to be looking out for is the type of setup like in the screenshot for divergence and also when they are all oversold or overbought.
But remember how to trade oscillators or any other indicator for that matter, if the market is clearly bullish, no amount of oversoldness should be taken for a short.
The volumes is just another part of the story, you don’t match the indicators up, you read their own story.
I know it’s a short answer, but does it answer your question?
@ purplepatchforex
Are you entering trades at OTE like ICT has taught as well? Both your trade examples I can spot an OTE at the time of your trade. Just curious.
EJ
Thank you alot for your response.
I think for now my questions are answered… I will keep it on my charts and see if I figure out how to implement them to their full potential… If you don’t mind, I might have to ask some follow up questions in the near future after playing with it for a while;)
cheers and thanks a lot!