not related to ict’s teachings: looks to me like there are some big option positions with 1.32 strike, trying real hard to hold eur/usd above 1.32 for new york cut. (in 5 minutes). i dont have access to option data right now, but looks so obvious. at least some concepts of david jefferson (some of you may know that name ;)) are pretty useful at times.
Seems that they failed holding the 13200
Once H4 Market Structure broken it was all over (for me) on Longs.
Too bad I’ve only been trading demo over the last week. Some good money to be made
don’t have “real” charts available at the moment so can’t see what price was exactly at 10 am est. doesn’t matter anyways. big bounce of ksr, high formed mid week, price comming down nicely breaking ms. 1.32 was just holding the “flow” back until 10 am est. spit valve is now open again and the market can continue to “flow”. the long wicks on m15 at 1.32 were some real nice indicator that the price would continue it’s stream downwards after the new york cut.
btw i forgot to mention the most important thing. today is the 3rd friday in december, the end of the 4th quarter of the year. every year on the 3rd friday of the last month of each quarter a massive amount of options and futures expires. in germany these days are called “hexensabbat” (you can try to translate that, i have no clue what the corresponding english terminology could be :)), because prices are acting “crazy”, because the big money is trying to move the markets so their options expire in the money. so, at least 4 days a year having a look at nearby option strikes could prove very useful.
Nice post Vinster.
I just started studying ICT and am wondering how and what to track for open interest. Could you do a brief explanation of what index your tracking and why. Also, do you know of a free charting website that I can get the open interest charts?
Thanks
pandemonium is a reasonable translation (in meaning) for hexensabbat. I am supposing some relationship to a spell (Witch’s Sabbath) being cast due to option expiry.
SMT Divergence shows EUR strength.
Right when price hit the daily resistance from the high a few months ago:
And a spike up:
I expect price to trade down to the 1.3500 level, to match that support level, then go a bit further down to match the other daily high and the OTE Entry Point:
So two different analysis (referring to the above two analysis by Rod and Dodge) give two diifferent directional bias? …I am a bit confused here…:31:
Hey rod178! I noticed you have the REF labelled in your fib. What level is that exactly?
It denotes the reflection pattern for entry. Saves having to pull the Fib up to that level to obtain it manually.
Fiber short I took this morning for a quick 22 pips on the first half and the second still running.
This is the 5 minute execution chart with daily chart below.
For free charts on O.I. go to barchart.com
To see how to set up the charts go to 38 mins on the Trading Plan Development Series Part 5:
Inner Circle Trader’s Trade Plan Development Part 5 - YouTube
For an overview of top down anylsis on O.I. Part 1 of the TPDS at 59.20 mins
Inner Circle Trader’s Trade Plan Development Series Part 1 - YouTube
For a teaching module on Open Interest see this entire video
Inner Circle Trader’s PTC 09/08/12 - YouTube
A common question is what effect has expiration of contracts on O.I. - answer here beginning of video
Inner Circle Trader 12/06/12 - YouTube
More info on O.I.
at 07.30 mins
Inner Circle Trader’s PTC 09/14/12 - YouTube
at 08.00 mins
Inner Circle Trader’s Market Review 09/16/12 - YouTube
That should keep you busy for a while:)
wow! thanks peterma!!
This forum rocks!
Thanks Peterma for the help on that.
Open interest increase by 20% = increasing short positions = falling prices.
Open interest decrease by 20% = increasing long positions = raising prices.
Yes Vinster, but there is even more to it - for example if oi is increasing whilst a price move is underway then that is regarded as a confirmation of the move, there are many other facets, including looking at oi with volume - but the beauty of the beast is it is an early indicator of change ahead if read correctly.
Perhaps the most signifcant time I saw ICT using it coupled with COT was in calling the low in the Euro this past summer - I was so disbelieving that a low was in sight - over here we were all preparing for the it’s inevitable demise and here he was calling a turn - boy was I not laughed at when I told some colleagues that a guy in the US says it’s ok, the euro will survive by looking at some lines on a chart.
That teaching module is good
As efficient as ever! Cheers peterma
Sweet thanks 
Ok, so I’m studying ICT Plan Development 5, open interest section, and ICT shows the chart of British Pound with open interest rising, commercial net short, with a decline in price. This is confusing to me because from my understanding when commercials are net short we should be at a high. Now, I have the Yen chart that I just pulled up that has open interest rising, decline in price, but the commercials are net long, which is the way it should be because when commercials are net long then price should be at a low.
Can someone help me understand what is happening here?
Price action is fractal also it doesn’t move in a straight line, which means that you could actually have a situation where in a larger environment you could have price going in two directions as part of the underlying pattern. Therefore you could have an overall bullish environment inside of which exists a bearish environment. Alternatively, you could have an overall bearish environment within which is a bearish environment. This of course means that two different traders could place trades in opposite direction yet both make money on the other hand they could both lose money as the market wasn’t going in either direction just consolidating and they both got it wrong. However, it is nearly Christmas so why don’t we all have another drink and think about it in the new year?
I hope this helps? Happy Christmas. :8: