Peterma, I’m trying to sort out yields and maybe you can help, or anyone. When fiber yields are high and cable yields are low both currencies will go up but the fiber will go up much faster than the cable. It also seems in this situation that the cable will want to go lower much faster than the fiber though the correlation remains. Am I onto something here? Is it bond yield pressure that is propping the fiber up and allowing the cable to slip?
Yes I read it. Not only was the cable making lower lows and lower highs on Friday indicating a bearish divergence, the 4hr on the fiber shows a three drives pattern completed on Friday indicating a selloff today. I was short the fiber for a lousy 20 pips and I should’ve jumped on the cable short today. Still +1%
The price patterns that are mentioned in that book to me are way more reliable than classic chart patterns such as head and shoulders and bear flag and such.
I do’nt watch the UK bond market - I just watch the US (the leader of the pack) and the german bund.
The US yields, in time of no news like today will offer good guidance even on the short term, the German Bund for example turned at 15.30 today and offered no guidance - however the US 10 yr bounced off resistance in the 12.00 - 13.00 hour - a signal that the dollar would turn - one hour later the usdx changed direction
The German Bund 1 hr - offered little guidance intraday.
The US 10yr - I was watching it approach resistance - bounced off resistance - one hr later usdx followed suit .
Sorry - another thing I forgot to mention - notice the divergence between the US and Euro bonds - the top chart (the euro bund) is showing lower lows in price (so inverted means higher highs in yield)
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ICT teaches us that foreign currencies chase yield.
OK been meaning to post this since the day it happened,
but i was overwhelmed emotionally and didn’t really know what to write. Well one thing that life thought me is that time heals everything. So i wanted to take this opportunity and write up by BIG F@@K UP on this Thursday’s trading that i did. (pardon my French)
I have been posting pretty much all my trades so far and it seems like no one post’s bad trades or mistakes ect, well i must admit its very hard for me to come out and post this, especially it being so bad, but on Thursday i ended up losing little over 13% of my account due to my stupidity going, counter trended and not analysing the market as well as i should have.
Plus completely loosing control of my emotions and getting hit by that train every one talks about. Overtrading, revenge trading you name it :17: i don’t even know what happened to me, i lost complete control of my self!
The week started great for me i caught the large move that we had on Monday @ NYO risked 1% made 2%.
Everything was going fine, i planned the week ahead identified Key S/R levels 1.3120 and 1.3170 and decided that if price reaches them levels most likely it will bounce for 20 pips or so i set double tap orders around them levels risked 2% split in them in to half, first portion TP was set @20 pip profit second was going to be set to Be once price bounced at least 20 pips and let the reminder run.
The day started great everything was going well, but reflecting on all of this back i gambled that day with them 2 limit orders you may ask why, simply reflecting back on it. MS was bullish on daily so that run up was there to get in sync with HTF i was doing exactly opposite!"!!!. Later i learned that a key speech was being given by ECB Mario Dhragi and even though we are technical traders it’s best to avoid key speeches as he could say anything and this could end up adversely affecting the market. 3 Interest rate decision even though i think it’s unlikely they would change it’s paramount to watch out for for them.
So the market started to rally as Mario was giving his speech and we run up in to 1.3120 level true to my theory we got a 20 pip bounce as i anticipated! Did i lock the profit in! No i changed first part of the order and extend my TP tp 1.3080! :56:
Do you think that i moved my stop to BE? NO i did no such thing i extended it and though i will give the market room to breath, oh breath it did! only wiped me out in a process and stopped me out eventually at 1.3150 .Note that if i was to follow my original plan i would be up 1% instead i was minus 3%. It continued to rally did i remove my limit order @1.3170 you might ask? As realistically that’s what i should have done straight after that loss, but NO i watched that order get stopped out too again moving my stop even further in hopes that it will reverse! dam dam! so despaired and minus 6% i decided that i will make it ALL BACK oh yah wild west style!!!so i entered sell market for 3 lots Lucky lol put a SL @ 1.3202… after ALL HOW COULD I BE WRONG me NEVER!(sarcasm) :58: and Market took that as well bringing me to my knees.
Yah i was upset and overwhelmed and maybe cried a little and not ashamed to admit it, not because i lost my money, but because i lost my self that day!
So its not always rosy cosy!
I am happy to say that i am battling that emotion, but its like a parasite feeding on fear, greed excitement hope. Always there waiting.
Sorry for not posting earlier, after all i have been posting when thing’s are good, now they are bad.
Wow… What a crappy day!
I’m new to trading with real money, and I find that controlling your emotions is really the hardest thing to learn!! The amount of frustration, impatience, pride, happines, anger, that you can go through in a matter of hours is REALLY hard to cope with when you are new to this!
I’ve never lost control in a way that resembles what you are telling here, but I get where you are comming from!
Get back on the horse, save the post you’ve written here and when you have a bad day, read it, and make sure it never happens again!
Really Interested in WW concept and whether WW have value at the weekly TF as well. See below for reason behind my question. Could be the position trade of a life time :13:
does anyone have data on probabilities? And when can a WW be dismissed as not valid?
Hey Most - mark it up as a tough lesson learnt the hard way. It (or add sh…) happens sometimes and as you say nearly always down to our own faults in not sticking to the plan. On the plus side - you’ll not do it again - aversion therapy comes in handy!! Its happened to me in the past as I’m sure it has to lots of traders. Best way to look at it is a battle that you probably guessed you’d have to have at some point and now its done, you’ll be fitter and wiser for it. They real key is to take the hit, understand it and get right back to what you know is right (maybe adjusting risk a little in the meantime). Your trades have been pretty spot on in the past - so this is a just a minor slip up.
Great post btw - this type of honesty is rare and its to your credit that you were big enough to write it up for everyone to learn from.
I applaud you for being truth to yourself and accept that you make a mistake(s). Everyone had the same experience as you do. Nobody… I repeat …Nobody is immune to this…Being truth to yourself and realizing your mistakes is a big step that you can take. Some people won’t admit that they have loses or they think they don’t lose in which they are living on denial and will have a hard time fixing what is broken or what is not working.
Having said that, if you now recognize what went wrong on your trades, what are you now going to do to at least minimize your losses? I said “minimize” because you will have losing streak again but how would you handle this? We can’t win when our mind is so desperate to get back what we lose. We are very very emotional about it. Our ego is hurting (well, maybe not much for a women I guess…lol). I think what you need to do now is just to completely stop for a few days or even weeks before trading again. I think you should give yourself a good amount of time to reflect everything what you did wrong and what you did right.
Focus more on yourself at this point because if your mind is not clear right now, you will have a hard time focusing on looking a good set up. Don’t worry, the market is not going anywhere. You won’t miss anything. There is always a good “opportunity” around when you can see it clearly.
Hi everyone, sorry but I need to ask for some very basic help.
I have a demo account with FXCM (don’t know what the leverage is). It has just over $1000 in it and I entered a trade yesterday using double tap, 1% each, but from what I can tell my position size was only half what it should of been looking at the $ lost.
I calculated: $1000 account, 1& risk = $10 risk (double tap, 2% = total $20)
30 pip SL = 0.33 USD per pip therefore 0.03 lot size x 2 to total risk. But my loss per entry was only $5.52 (not $10 per entry)
mostwanted, reading your post took me back to memories of that exact same and in a way 'm sorry you went through that pain. In another way, this experience will be your own safeguard against the most terrible risk in this business - our own self. You had it, felt it, know it and now will be aware of what to guard against. it’s like a rite of passage… if that is of any help, your 13% is lookin good compared to what others have achieved in such situations, myself included!
let this be a good lesson, one of growth and experience. Good trading, you rock!
teka, 0.03 lot (3000) x2 separate entries for double tap. One 0.03 lot though resulted in a loss of $5.52, which is not 1% of my account, it’s 0.5%. Sorry the screen shot is so small.
