Just broken one of my new trading rules on the EURUSD
Took the trades off before the Asian session starts because its just rejected off the weeks open at 1.33200 and used it as a resistance level. This despite the regular divergence on the 1 hr chart.
Donāt interfere with a trade except:
a) move SL to break even once break even target reached
b) moving SLās to lock in profits once initial fib target reached.
c) moving SLās to follow trade to conclusion after applying further analysis on current situation.
Trying to get out of the habit of taking very small wins after conducting the analysis and over come fears, doubts and conflict that beset me after my initial big loss early last year.
well looks likes i was wrong :D. I would have been profitable had i traded it tho. looks like another opportunity for a stop run above that 1.589. which means 1.5897 lol. I still feel good about it.
So hereās the bad news. the bad news that had me crying kicking and screaming. Iāve been in a short from the beginning of the year it was up about 500 pips. today on a whim i decide to go long on a nested OTE just a few min ago. well i forgot to switch accounts and i put in a buy order. so it closed out my short and opened me long. Im beyond furious. At the USA. At myself. At Oanda lol. eh anyway ill be shorting again about 250 pips up.
I really enjoy intraday action - Iām not great when trying to figure the week ahead, but Iām focusing on what I enjoy.
I employ intermarket anaylsis when trying to figure the intraday high/low, one chart Iāve never mentioned before but is very valid is the EURX.
Just choosing at random - todays latest turn (15 min fibre) at 15.45gmt - check out the eurx at the same time - draw a horiz there ( at 106.40) and zoom out to 1 hr - see the support.
That alone coupled with S1 at 3263 gave very high odds of the fibre turn.
Just for good measure - the US10yr hit hourly resistance 15mins earlier at 15.30 gmt
I like your posts
you have my attention with this intermarket stuff What is EURX?
Can you give me some pointers on where to start with this intermarket analysis you talk ofā¦
I know of SMT divergences and yields etc,but an actual methodology of putting it all together is what stumps meā¦
Any help will be greatly appreciatedā¦
Check over some of my previous posts - the way I anaylise intraday - I only trade the fibre (because I want to remain totally focussed)
Say fibre is rising like this morning after coming down from Asian range -Judas down first- then the rapid rise.
The first thing I check is it Euro buying, Dollar selling or both - itās very often one or the other.
This morning I posted itās the dollar - Iāll use the usdx to try and guage where itāll stop. - I used cable - rising - so either dollar selling or pound buying, then to eur/gbp - nothing special - no sign of either large pound buying or euro buying - so think about it - why would the fibre then be rising AND the cable - had to be dollar selling - use the usdx - simple
The second thing I want to know - is the rally for real - if real then Iām bullish and will want in on an entry signal, if not then Iāll want to sell when it turns, - I posted āsuspiciousā,why?
I judged it was not for real and was bearish the move - reason was USDX / US10yr divergence (remember it was a dollar move) USDX should follow 10yr price, not move in opposite direction.
Thatās the jist of it - itās takes me longer to type it out - after a while of practising it becomes second nature, on my watch list in forex - 3 charts - cable, fibre, eur/gbp , then us10yr, usdx, eurx.
I figure that all this is really only smt in action - itās all in them there ICT videos
So Iām still a little unsure as to the direction for the short term, but Iām going to remain overall Bullish on the Euro and Bearish on the USD in the long term. However Iām looking for the USDX to try and test the 81.40 level which should translate to lower Euro prices in the near term hopefully looking to try and test the 1.3120 level. At these levels both will be at respective Key SR levels where we may seem a longer term move back into the overall trend direction.
These are just thoughts at the moment and no pending orders are set just yet as itās just not clean enough for me just yet.
Attached is a Euro chart (1HR) & a USDX chart (4HR , the Euro chart shows the main swing I am looking at while the USDX shows the overall range and then a smaller range Iām looking at inside the range.
Seasonal tendency on euro from today to feb 10 is bearish - if you had just sold the Euro fx and bought back those dates over the past 15 years - you would have won on 13 years and lost on 2 ā¦ mind you 2012 was one of those loss years.
ICT Tweet: āOk folks trade review and troubleshooting session. You get to coach and provide feedback and how One can learn. Role reversal tonight. :)ā
Hi ICT!
If this becomes a live event there is no way I will make it because of time zones etc. So iāll put down my advice to you here.
There is something that is invaluable in all teaching. If your teaching science, french or martial arts itās irrelevant all teachers do it, they all demonstrate worked examples.
I would request that we get a full run down with every single intricate piece of information that you sue to determine a trade.
I am talking everything from COT reports and interest rates through to the study of market structure on all time frames, or what ever you do.
Getting a full 100% run down of why a trade is taken would really step up your teaching.
Worked examples, worked examples and more worked examples.
You have spent a LOT of time on the theory of so many tools. I think direct examples with every single detail explained of them being used in action would really have an impact.
Guys check out the cable at 1.57500. Its a OTE on the daily. Everyone and there dog is long the cable right nowā¦ I wouldnāt be surprised to see it break down out of the range its in right now. Take out stops and then start making its move back up. There is also a few other thing happening at 1.575 that are interesting. See if you can find them.
Last time I tried to understand seasonals I got confused and ended up leaving it for now. I did get some help from in here but the information I got seamed to contradict and I didnāt get a clear understanding.
If you can help clear up when Cable/Fibre are supposed to do what with links to sources, Iād gladly look them over and learn this stuff properly. If not Iāll get around to going over it all again when I have more of the basics covered, though I thought this idea would form a fundamental part of my yearly trading plan.
Morning folks!
Fiber long @ 1.32915
Should have taken the Cable as it was the one accumulating (didnāt make lower lows while the Fiber did) Bullish OTEās on both pairs
So I bought right into the jaws of the bear, letās see if I get torn apart
