I am still long @ 1.35878…1% risk
US 10 yr was saying down…down…down - but hey what does it know, I know better, buy at the 20 fig, what goes down … etc - suppose that’s why they call it the monte carlo fallacy -
Stopped out -35 pips - big lesson learned - Follow a system - any system - but no gambling.
Came back to see that my second entry limit hit
should have stuck to my original plan.
I find Monday’s are often not good to trade, although Fridays I mostly find profitable.
Still endeavouring to incorporate H1 Bond PA in my trading, although not all clear as yet…
I’m still in my (second) Fiber Long, so all not yet lost, however, the next time I want to trade on Monday I will replay
Yes indeed, funny thing is, the last 3 weeks or so, probably longer, I havent traded Mondays at all, mainly because no setups jumped out at me. Fridays have been pretty good, but if I’ve hit my targets by then, I’ll tend to avoid…
The week is still young 
what my m15 fiber chart appears like at the moment.
some free style SR lines, a fib on the volatility swing, and dotted line appears as equilibrium inside the lower range. The 127 extension on the swing is at the same level, M30 closed a power of 3 formation. Opened long at 3561, expecting to pick up some momentum on the upside, if price below 3550 at any time then i will seek exit.
Rod, I was being sarcastic with myself - reading the bonds on their own did’nt mean I would’nt get stopped out - yeah maybe not if I set a stop of -100 - I was telling myself that I need an entry system - a means of getting in with a reasonable stop - usually that means when price has finished being judas, like this morning.
now things are improving - hidden ote from 3500, type2 div if price turns here, on 15 and 1 hr
EUR/USD @ 1.3500 in View…
Here is what I"ve got from my e-mail this morning another factor why the big sell off today.
The EUR/USD was under attack from the start of trade today as fears over the growing corruption scandal in Spain and some jawboning from EZ officials sent the pair tumbling through the 1.3600 figure unwinding much of Friday’s rally. The situation in Spain - where the government of Prime Minister Rajoy has been accused of making illegal cash payments - has created a political crisis with many calling on Mr. Rajoy to resign.
Last week the Spanish newspaper El Pais revealed of alleged illegal cash payments, including extracts from handwritten ledgers by the former People’s Party Treasurer Luis Barcenas that showed payments to officials including Rajoy. Mr. Rajoy has denied the allegations stating that he never received those payments.
However, he has come under a vicious ridicule attack by refusing to answer the charges head on in a press briefing, as he opted instead to talk to reporters via a video conference. The calls on Mr. Rajoy to resign are increasing in Spain as the outrage over the matter grows especially in the midst of the deepest recession the country has faced in many years.
The prospect of Rajoy resignation has roiled the markets as any fresh political instability in EZ most important periphery economy could undermine the sense of investor confidence and send Spanish yields higher making it much more difficult for the government to implement its austerity measures. Spanish yields rose about 10 basis points and Italian also jumped higher in sympathy.
The euro, which has enjoyed as massive rally this year, in large part due to the unwind of the “EZ break up” trade was once again under assault as those fears resurfaced. It was particularly weak on the crosses especially against the pound and the Aussie as those two pairs came under very heavy profit taking after rising in a near vertical fashion last week.
The story in Spain underscores the fragility of the recovery in the European sovereign debt markets and shows that political risks could still scuttle the carefully laid plans of Mario Monti to stabilize the financial sector in the region. The recent rise in the EUR/USD has also exacerbated matters as it will make it more difficult for exporters in the periphery economies to grow this year.
The euro therefore is vulnerable to further correction especially if the pressure on Mr. Rajoy increases as the week proceeds. After its massive run up, investor sentiment may now change and the pair could retrace back to the 1.3500 level as markets curb the enthusiasm.
Sure - understood that.
I was just trying to figure out what the Bond PA indicated, specifically that the German Bonds were stronger than US Bonds or British Bond
I’m beginning to suspect that I should just concentrate on watching the US Bonds(2,5,10) for Divergence with each other as well as with the USDX
Yep - I concentrate on the US.
Yep, lots of rumour mongering ref Spain - caused an increase in their borrowing this morning, you know what they say about selling and rumours:)
Yeah, very tempted to buy here…,
I’m going to wait for a confirmation though. I would like to see the big fig tagged first (1.36) before buying on a retracement. I’d like to see a bullish short term market structure break before I get Long again.
bonds rising and rising, usdx is not following and hovering below a KSR level on my chart, also 61.8% retracement and h4 stoch div. cable is the stronger pair today, got in at 1.5712. first attempt at incorporating bonds. i hope this divergence between bonds and usdx is correct. from what i’ve seen from you peterma, it could also be interpreted as “lag”, meaning that usdx will follow the bonds prices soon (hope not). well, i’m on the divergence side anyways. long cable
Though sometimes if the news is heavy enough, it might stay there or it might go down farther.
So what we as trader should do at this point or if you missed it? We wait and look for other confirmation before we get in unless you see something that you are guarantee that it will bring you some pips
so far fiber acts like early bird worm, second mouse cheese.
it appears to be short, while not going anywhere.
long trade is at -2 pips for now, still open
Using the 5 yr today.
Spain now threatening court action against the rumourers (like that just made up word:))
All this correlation guys - but watch the indicies - big falls today = risk off
not you?? thought you had your SL at 1.3585.
Ha! Well, don’t we have a reasons for everything? Well, that one is more dramatic and more entertaining than the “Judas Swinger”…lol…
We can always come up with something more entertaining… variety is good