Well folks - its been a fairly quiet day as I suspect everyone is biding their time waiting for the ECB, the BOE as well as Carneys first official comments as the new Governor elect. Not traded today as a consequence. Tomorrow should give us more of a directional clue. One big deal (I think) is the sizeable risk off in the Dax index wiping out all the new year gains. Big divergence here with the Dow. antway looking forward to the morrow.
JC and Green, thanks for the replies. Unfortunately I closed it out as I had to leave the screen due to work, +20 though so Iām good with that. JC, I think I see what you mean about the 1.3459 levelā¦but I guess I was looking at the levels from last week, around the 29th and 30th being broken. Zooming out, and looking at the daily timeframe I am still not convinced as to structure being bullish. Iām still trying to get a handle on Market Structure and currently not looking at other factors.
65Pips for today 
Thank you very much Michael :*
Another horrible day for meā¦ Iām down around 9% so far this week!!! 
Iām never gonna be a millionaire this wayā¦ Stupid forex trading!
Hi all. I am a newbie trader - opened a live account in early January after trading a demo for 6 months. The one thing I have learned is just to trust yourself because nobody knows where the market will go. On Monday I was reading this thread and got caught up with everyone saying they were going long on fiber, my outlook was saying sell but I followed the crowd and bought - and got burned.
I see a lot of people think the euro will keep rising but I would love to know why. The recent high of around 1.37030 was the highest level since around October 2011, some European countries have been complaining about the high level of the Euro and I am sure Spain, France, Greece and Italy would love a much lower Euro price to boost their ailing tourism industries. How do we know if the recent falls are a retracement or a reversal? My daily charts are still looking bullish but my head is telling me it is going to fall.
Any help or ideas would be much appreciated.
Itās funny how you (me) can have a really good week or two & then it all turns to custardā¦
As soon as I upped my leverage to 1:20 it all went to hell in a hand bag, today has been my first profitable day in over a week & itās very modest. Hang in there!
Well, itās always something that Iām not the only one 
1st trade on MyFXBook for everyone to view since joining in the challenge with ICT should they wish.
AUD/JPY
[B]Notes viewable on the book.[/B]
Weekly low on 5th February. OTE pattern formed across the two days at midday 6th February. OTE sweet spot 96.240. Pair is on a buy program although weakening. May need to micro manage trades. Slight error in sizing half the total trade by forgetting to match units purchased. On 1 hr chart L with LH formed in divergence on Stoch with L and LL.
[B]Not on book though in my journal.[/B]
Longer term view ā¦ is this pair is headed up to around the 109.000 figure based on my understanding to achieve at least equality for motive waves under the Elliott Wave Principal based on Wave 1 fib measurements for this pair. Wave 1 Commenced in February 2009 and has gone through a A, B, C, D, E correction that lasted for almost 2 years to the day. Should this prove to be the case, caution should be exercised when approaching the 109.000 figure because this could prove to be an A, B, C correction that has lasted for the better part of 4 years with a consequential decline in the pair. Recently the pair burst through several longer term resistance points 88.260, 91.620 and is now hovering around the 95.850 mark.
There may be a hiatus for a rest at this point for several days or even weeks as the pair gather momentum for the next push up.
Please note that my preference is for the AUD/XXX. XXX/AUD pairs so not following cable or fibre particularly. However, if opportunity presents then I will grab with out stretched arms and fill my boots 
The main thing is understanding the framework that ICT has shown us and building on that.
Yes, I see what youāre saying, I see the swing low youāre talking about on the 31st of Jan, formed during LO on the 4H candlestick. While this technically is a swing low (and therefore would relate to MS being bearish as youāve suggested), I tend to look for the more obvious swing points.
The swing low on the 31st Jan was formed during quite a big push, I would view this as 1 āmeasured moveā as ICT talks about, for the following reason: If you take a line and draw it from the swing low on the 29th Jan 08:00 4H candle to the high on the 30th Jan 16:00 4H candle and then take that line and place the bottom of that line on the swing low formed at 08:00 on 31st Jan 4H candle look where the top reaches
I would class this a single move (swing low on 29th to the high on 1st Feb) and that swing low that formed on the 31st wouldnāt carry as much weight as say the swing low on the 29th Jan 08:00 4H candle. This is my main reason for still being relatively bullish.
My primary levels of interest in terms of MS are 1.3459 (mentioned this one already) and then the swing low formed at 1.3415 on the 29th Jan. If we maintain the low at 1.3459, Iāll remain bullish and look for a push above 1.36 (new high), and ultimately above 1.37 if we are to continue higher.
This is the part I find the hardest, price is moving downwards and youāre looking for longs. This is when good planning and patience keeps you out. I was too hasty to get in today at that 1.3520 (although I did wait for MS to break on the 5M and bought in on the retracement), if I had of thought about it, the OTE bang on 1.35 would have been the ideal entry for any long today. Despite the fact that no longs should have been taken (strong push down at the start of the day).
This is generally how Iāll view the bigger picture, comments welcomed!
Pips in the bagā¦ this was very obviousā¦ would have liked to hold for more but choppy afternoon + news tmora + expected small range dayā¦Powder still dry!
Just bounced off the weeks open for the second time in 8 hrs. Wondering if this it the pair has reached the hiatus point for a period of wandering around within a short range for the next few days - weeks even. ???
Mind you I have been wondering this since it hit the 94.600 figure two weeks ago.
Sounds like winners tilt
I know exactly what you mean PIPernal. Iām pretty much in the same position and also learned fairly early on after being burned not to let outside influences change my overall outlook on what is happening. Iāve been much more successful since. Iāve found the best way for me to learn is to make my own mistakes and use forums and material like ICT provides to maybe help identify the problem (or at least point me in the right direction) after the mistake has been made.
I also reached the same conclusion as you regarding the Euro and would be great to hear from those more experienced on why the majority seem to feel it is going to continue to rise.
What a joke
Looking at the market structure video on ICT - If you go to your weekly EURUSD chart and zoom out from the period 1994 to nowā¦weāre at the right section of the structure. Looking at the fractal as daily chart from October 2011 to now we are also at the right section of the structure, same pattern.
What to make of it, I am unsure 
Jonnycab, First off let me say a huge thank you for your detailed response. It is exacty what I was hoping for and another example of how great the help and assistance and patience provided on this thread is. Thanks a ton! I went back and followed your reasoning perfectly to āsupportā your levels and it made an awful lot of sense. I think I got hung up on something ICT said in a live session(I think it was an answer to someoneās question on a livestream session)that market structure was broken even if it was violated just by one pip. But that being said, I do totally get what youāre saying about the level I was using being sort of the midpoint of a measured move. Thanks again, it is much appreciated.
Is anyone thinking Judas this morning?
I was thinking eggs and bacon, but whatever floats your boat I suppose.
I was going to add to my long from yesterday but had a visitor right on London Open Grrrr!
Iām bullish overall for both Cable & Fiber
On saying this Iām now looking @ bearish divergence on the Fiber as we speak. Initially the Bull OTE formed off the Asian range had me wanting to go longā¦ maybe it is a Judas in the making :33:
I keep forgetting thus the edits on this post, Did anyone notice the āspinning topā on the Daily Cable? Itās also in a Bullish daily OTE & reflection on the H4, away it went!!
Re-entered long @ AR high retest, filled @ 1.3525. Still bullish hereā¦
EDIT: Taken some profits @ 1.3550. Iād like to see a significant break through this levelā¦
EDIT 2: There we go