Just the one trade for me today, long at 1.3513. Considered closing before the news, but as I was expecting a push higher I decided to leave it open at BE and gave my 60 odd pips or so back to the market.
So that’s 6.25% down for the week, which ain’t too bad after Monday’s debacle that lost 9.25% trading without the SL! Still p**s poor though. Still happy with why I took the trade and although I thought we would have a bearish week this week Mondays trading made me second guess the week and thought we would see a retest of at least last weeks high before a sell off.
I could have taken half off at 50 but my FX book shows a larger average loss than win which is clear I need to let my winners run a little longer.
-4.5% for the year too so even after a disaster I still have a decent capital base to grow from.
ugh its been a rough week me too, had a bad day yesterday …(lost 2.5% on my “sure thing trade ;)” ) and then today, just when I thought I figured it’d all out for the rest of the week , the fiber completely tanked during the NYO… At least i did get my .5 % back today on the 30 pip first take profit lol
Reasons for long in Fiber:
-M/F and M/S [U]was[/U] up during last night
-Fractal low formed on fiber daily at key level (1.3500)
-Double OTE buys on higher T/Fs
-Break out/retest of A.R. high at L.O.
-Higher t/f divergences between fiber/usdx = bullish for fiber
-USDX daily/4hr was down
-USDX stinger/grail setup on daily
-USDX higher t/f OTE sell
-USDX triads diverging bearishly = lower USDX
-USDX broke below A.R. and held below during L.O.
-USDX stop raid/turtle soup higher t/f’s (2/6/13 just poking above 2/5/13’s high also forming that SMT diverg)
There might be a few more I’m forgetting off the top of my head but once again I thought i had another "sure thing " lol
Here’s some pictures to help explain… sorry if some of them are cluttered, i didnt want to add to many pic’s
The problem was totally me… Writing too many comments, focused on the wrong things, etc… In retrospect, the trade was there to be had begging to be taken.
Thanks for mentioning this. Do you think it could have something do with different time frames for the daily or weekly charts?
The daily bars on the FXCM Trading Station open and close at 5pm New York time. The weekly bars open at 5pm on Sunday and close at 5pm on Friday. If you feel there is an error with the pivot point indicator on our platform, please shoot me a PM, and I’ll have our developers look into it.
Maybe a quick little recap by you, can show why WE were all wrong this week ?
As far as looking at the same charts …I bet you any money at all any one of us can look at the same exact chart, same exact timeframes and I can point out a bearish divergence at a higher t/f level with a broken market structure and broken market flow with a picture perfect OTE at the time into a beautiful move , compared to a bullish move you or any other person may be looking at…vice versa for longs etc etc. And that goes for any situation with any random person.
Even though your post may have been towards everyone, I believe I gave a [I]few[/I] good reasons for expecting a long … higher t/f bullish m/s , m/f , swing lows forming all over the place at key levels.
I lost money today and did not see it ahead of time, but if you look at the charts, today’s move was very forseeable, and where price targeted was fairly obvious using the fibs. Even COT played a part in today. Today was a summation of ICT’s teaching from 2012.
Still reluctant to post on such a knowledgable thread as I am still at the early stages of my learning. I actually went short today at 1.35627 and bagged 126 pips, but I can’t help but thing there is a very large element of luck involved and am still doubting myself. I use a 45 pip stop loss and aim to take 80% at 100 pips and let the rest ride until opposite signal. I have tried trading on charts less than 4hrs but seem to fail miserably everytime. Since the move to the monthly, weekly, daily and 4hr things are picking up. My reason for short come from the ICT intermediate term trade plan.
Seasonal tendancy, COT, sentiment, Gold and Oil could argue a case for short EURUSD (risk off I think the term is).
Also, on the monthly chart an old (obvious) high of 1.36410 (Dec 04) proved resistance in April 07 and Sep 2010. Although this is shy of the 1.4 figure that would have been the sweet spot, I thought it was worth a punt. This was because the area to the left at the end of January was easily broke through on the 3rd/4th of Feb. It then retraced and struggled before going back down. When it went back down and produced the doji I was hoping for an OTE short as drawn on the chart.
On the 4 hour chart I was then stalking an OTE, hence my entry at 1.35627 (taking account of spread).
Fortunately I was away from my charts when the move happened as had I been in front of them I may well have closed the position way too soon. (Lucky for me).
I am still trying to learn smaller timeframe trading and have been for the best part of two years and really struggling to make it work. Long term trading is on a very small live account and positive by 6% in 6 months. Not great but still in the game and hopefully will get better. I am persisting on a demo account for short term trading. Given I have learnt so much from this thread, I would be interested to know how long it took for people to become profitable trading short term timeframes and if you have any tips. I love the trading arena and want to be trading a lot more regularly but just can’t make it profitable yet :mad:
Here’s me picking the high. Then wanting to go to bed and getting scared. My SL was 20 pips at the last high. Thinking being of we get there we re still bullish.
I risked $4 less than 1% of my account. And I could have made $24ish. About 5%…
If anyone should feel crummy it’s this guy/woman…
I had it a talked myself out lol. The one day I go to be early. I did forsee it hogarste at least I feel good about that. But the $24 woulda made me feel better lol.
Impressive pip haul today! I just have a quick tip for you, that I’m trying to use myself.
If you, like me, struggle to trust your own analysis because you are new to trading, new to the ICT concepts, etc. - What I will try to be doing is, as soon as I open a trade, set my SL of course, and then set an alarm to my phone using the built in system that MT4 has, at my first take profit level, and then simply walk away from the screen! So if my SL is hit, my phone will tell me, and if my TP is hit, my phone will tell me If my phone doesn’t say anything, I won’t be looking at my screen!
I’ve cut my trades short SO many times these last weeks because I’ve been scared when looking at the charts all the time…
I hope you can use the advice!
Very nicely done. COT was also a great tip off, and ICT mentioned that last night he expected the market to move today due to liquidity. I think that in addition to the clue with COT, was on the 4H chart the low on Tuesday changed market structure to bearish. That set up the OTE short that occurred today via the Judas swing. As for looking for potential targets, the last low to high (see Tuesday 1H) will show interesting opportunities to take profit at 127% and at 161.8, both of which were high profile recent s/r points. Great job. Today is how it’s done, and I did not do it.
Can you show me the cot data you’re talking about? I use cotbase and it still shows the commercials shorting but not having formed a bottom yet. Maybe your looking at CFTC.org? And they lessened their shorts a lot?
I posted that on Jan 22 - the Euro continued to rise, Deutche Bank anaylists were saying that the ecb viewed 3400 - as just about acceptable - but that 3700 -3800 is not - there was no way that Draghi was going to be hawkish today - Draghi spoke back then but said very little - the euro continued to rise (much to my amazement).
Germany is the ‘powerhouse’ of Euro zone- a very large exporter - It pulls the strings big time with regard to the Euro particularily - so if you hear D Bank saying ‘we think lower euro’ be warned.
Of course the ECB does’nt get involved in fx rates - official policy etc.
Thanks, you have hit the nail on the head. I am moving to limit orders only (with stop loss) and using a 30 pip stop. I am not enough discipline to chart watch with market orders as it results in early entry and stop being hit too often. Walking away from the charts may be the answer Hope I can keep away.
You’re right, my analysis led to my lost 2% this week, yours led to your lost 20k so far …mine must be messed up
i post up my legit analysis and you go off “not bragging” on how easy it was that you were finally right… no wonder this isn’t the first time we’ve disagreed on some topics
I just have a quick tip for you, that I’m trying to use myself.