Inner Circle Trader's Pro Traders Club 2012 - 2013 Series

[Richard87]

Okay, point well made, please move on.

[Hogarste]

To any of the newbies out there, not only is ICT not a scam, but when I first joined Babypips I sent him an email offering money for ‘one to one’ lessons, and he laughed it off, and then a follow up email after watching his videos for a month.

On 9/24/11 this was ICT’s email response to a request for me paying him for lessons:

[B]“I can do group meetings but no one has ever asked me for 1:1 environment… and to be honest… I have no need to charge for anything.”[/B]

On 10/28/11 he responded to another email where I thanked him for all of the videos he’d made that I watched the month prior, and I asked how I could repay his generosity.

[B]
“As for giving me anything… You thank you is enough personally but more than anything else… I’d love to hear you used this to somehow help someone else in need. That would be such a blessing.” [/B]

Does ICT have a bit of an ego? Yeah, I think so. Do his methods really work? They do for me when I follow them.

ICT cannot be a scam because he hasn’t charged anybody for anything. He’s simply not credible to a good number of folks for a variety of reasons openly disclosed on this site.

Lori is interested in audiences. ICT has a devout audience. If I were Lori, I’d let ICT into my fold as well.

[TommyL]

I doubt him or the mass majority of speakers on the topic to actually be profitable on their own. Sessions like this are conducted across a variety of financial markets.

I’m invited to attend various sessions at least once a day by phone, fax, email, regular mail, and the occasional FedEx envelope.

I’ve attended workshops, to improve my language or my marketing strategies, with mixed results. The most I paid was $2000 and I learned some things that I implemented in my practice immediately that recovered the cost of the workshop in a week’s time.

Of all those that I attended, results were proven prior to my acceptance. Had they not been, I would not have taken a seat. I’d rather take a weekend trip to Vegas with the money if I were to gamble it.

ICT has not shown those results. Had he been completely on the up and up, my big mouth very well might have turned in his favor.

Seems you missed the sign on the way in…

[Hogarste]

Woolo, from a trading perspective, what are you finding to be the most difficult. Is it daily bias, finding entries, controlling your risk. Put it on the line and talk about your trading. With regard to ICT’s methods, I found this past year market structure became clearer thanks to ICT, but I still have trouble finding entries because I have to sleep during the London Open. Could you make one trading related post where you specifically state what you’re having difficulty doing, and maybe folks here could try to help, which was kind of the idea of this thread.

As a respectful counter point:

If anyone is prepared to hand over the several thousand dollars for his meeting/course costs I highly recommend they get confirmation of his trading success or verifiable proof of success following the courses. His website makes many claims but you cannot easily find reliable proof of his profitability.

I spent a good 30-40 minutes researching him and found nothing in terms of proof that he is a profitable trader. If anyone has some please post it for the benefit of the community.

[Toekan]

Btw Mastergunner, you’ve suggested several times that it’s unreasonable that people think that ITC intentionally trashed some trades. I tried to discuss this with you by debating facts. Can’t you acknowledge to all of the ICT folks here that it’s possible that what we’re saying makes sense.

I am not MG99, but I agree that it is possible that ICT intentionally trashed some trades with a pre-defined purpose in mind.

Based on ICT his high-score claims and his video material and assuming he is the real deal, his trading showed under par performance that suggest that he intentionally trashed trades. You can assume this as his performance is not in line with his claims and he provides a reason for his under performance.

When you decline this assumption you already assume that his claims are false in the first place and that these last trades only confirm that, but that would be too soon. As long as there is no real proof that ICT is fake, you cannot conclude based on his last trades that that is the case.

It will be different when he says that he will not do that anymore, and still performs under par. But he hasn’t said that. He said to be up a certain % in February, and until February is not over that statement is still valid.

[mastergunner99]

I am not MG99, but I agree that it is possible that ICT intentionally trashed some trades with a pre-defined purpose in mind.

Based on ICT his high-score claims and his video material and assuming he is the real deal, his trading showed under par performance that suggest that he intentionally trashed trades. You can assume this as his performance is not in line with his claims and he provides a reason for his under performance.

When you decline this assumption you already assume that his claims are false in the first place and that these last trades only confirm that, but that would be too soon. As long as there is no real proof that ICT is fake, you cannot conclude based on his last trades that that is the case.

It will be different when he says that he will not do that anymore, and still performs under par. But he hasn’t said that. He said to be up a certain % in February, and until February is not over that statement is still valid.

After his first round of poor performance, he said he was joking and would not do it anymore. Not only did he say it was over, he said impressive results were to come.

The poor performance continued. He came back again and said that he was joking and that impressive results would continue.

There have been reports now surfacing from the past where he did the same thing.

Following the pattern, it would seem that after a poor week. He was teaching us lessons intentionally, and on good weeks, he was showing us how to do it.

I don’t know about you, but we all know how to lose and lose gloriously. There serves no purpose in showing people how you can lose. We see it on a daily basis from countless traders.

Perhaps it was just variance. I have a max drawdown of 18%. That can be a scary dip.

The difference is I humble myself before the market. I don’t control it, or even attempt to. I don’t say what I will get out of it, I report what it gave me.

ICT was good about bragging up future results. He just did not have much experience in talking about past results in the same fashion.

[Toekan]

After his first round of poor performance, he said he was joking and would not do it anymore. Not only did he say it was over, he said impressive results were to come.

The poor performance continued. He came back again and said that he was joking and that impressive results would continue.

There have been reports now surfacing from the past where he did the same thing.

Following the pattern, it would seem that after a poor week. He was teaching us lessons intentionally, and on good weeks, he was showing us how to do it.

MG99, I fully agree… I understand where you are coming from and it bugged me too… But when looking for evidence if he is the real deal or not, this would be the evidence gathering phase, not the conclusion phase. But I am with you on this.

I don’t know about you, but we all know how to lose and lose gloriously. There serves no purpose in showing people how you can lose. We see it on a daily basis from countless traders.

As usual, I agree with you again… It wouldn’t have hurt when he told up front that he was going to do that. Would it be a valuable lesson to us? I have my doubts because we are masters in losing money. If he is so good, the most of us could have taught him a lesson in losing money, so why teach it to us. But it is his challenge, so if he think it is important that is up to him. I think it is time wasted.

The difference is I humble myself before the market. I don’t control it, or even attempt to. I don’t say what I will get out of it, I report what it gave me.

ICT was good about bragging up future results. He just did not have much experience in talking about past results in the same fashion.

Where he lost me is when he said that he WILL make 30% in February. That is something that you can’t say upfront as you don’t know how February will do… You can only say that past results show that it is likely that he can make 30% in a month. By saying that he WILL make 30% he appeared unprofessional to me as that is more a statement a ****y starting trader would make and not a seasoned professional trader or a teacher.

From a marketing point of view such a statment is worth gold when he does it, but he will lose credibility when he doesn’t make it.

But although it doesn’t appear like that. I am still neutral. This is the position I would take when a friend of mine makes bold statements when he is drunk. I don’t dislike him for making such statements, I’d just take his future statements with a pinch of salt.

[woolo]

@Hogarste

Woolo, from a trading perspective, what are you finding to be the most difficult. Is it daily bias, finding entries, controlling your risk. Put it on the line and talk about your trading. With regard to ICT’s methods, I found this past year market structure became clearer thanks to ICT, but I still have trouble finding entries because I have to sleep during the London Open. Could you make one trading related post where you specifically state what you’re having difficulty doing, and maybe folks here could try to help, which was kind of the idea of this thread.

I don’t have anything further to learn in regards to the tools taught here. I’ve put in the time and made up my mind. I explained roughly how I use some of them here so feel free to read and if it helps you great if it does not then never mind.

@woolo

In one of the videos there was a nice explanation.

Lets say your watching the 4H chart and are anticipating a 4H move. The 4H markets structure has broken upwards and has come down into the OTE area and has just hit a S&R level. You would then zoom into the lower time frames (1H maybe 15m) to see a market structure break in your anticipated direction.

In terms of market structure being used to confirm an opinion of the market direction you could now go down to the 1H time frame. Then enter on the break in your direction. Simply put you are entering on a smaller time frame with the bias of the higher time frame.

This is my most vital part of my trading plan. I cannot call highs and lows through analysis. I know ICT does sometimes in his videos, I know some people here do too. I just can’t. I do get it right sometimes but thats luck.

I’m going to go off on a pretty long post now so you may want to stop reading but this is basically how I understand some of ICT’s tools so far and how I use them.

Example of price structure with support and resistance on the four hour chart:
Support and resistance is drawn at the ends of price structure moves.

Market Structure And The Fractal Nature Of Charts

Market structure breaks are what defines trend direction. Breaks upwards mean upward trends and breaks downwards mean downward trends.

If price has broken upwards then you look for it to retrace again then expect it to bounce at a support within that previous range before breaking upwards again.

In an uptrend you look for buys in the area highlighted green. You look for buys by entering the smaller time frame and buying when its structure breaks upwards after coming into contact and reacting with one of the higher timeframes support levels. All of this occurs within the range (Top-Bottom) of the previous higher time frame move.

You would then buy that smaller timeframe moves retracement in the hope that as the higher timeframes trend continues you’ve managed to enter within it’s (the higher time frame) range/consolidation and have not bought after it has broken out and is already trending.

When price has broken out on the higher time frame then this is the area where price is extended. This is the red area in the picture.

It is also possible to sell in an upward trend. This is possible in the area shaded in red. When price reacts to one of the higher timeframes resistance levels and the smaller time frame reacts with a structure break downwards then sells can be entered targeting areas where support may be found.

Here the smaller time frame structure can be seen breaking higher within the above charts higher time frame move.
It would be possible to enter on these moves to still catch the highest time frame move higher.

While entering on these smaller time frame swings the expectation of where price will move to comes from the analysis of the higher time frame. That is the swing being targeted.

The ICT Market Maker Profile:

Lets say we are looking at 4 Hour market structure breaks to the downside. The above profile would be a way of looking at what is happening on the 1 hour time frame. Although this profile is applicable to all time frames.

Green:
At the first green box we are looking at the extension of the previous move downwards hitting some sort of support. This a place where we would expect to see divergences on SMT or Indicators etc. On the Hourly chart this would look like a price consolidation range. This range will then break and if it breaks up we could assume that that is the beginning of the retracement of the four hour charts move downwards.

Blue:
We could then look on the hourly chart for point where that market break may retrace back down to. For example that green ranges top it just broke out from or perhaps a 61%-79% retracement. Zooming in to the smaller time frames we could then look for entry to go long. This would all take place in the blue box. We would be targeting areas of resistance on the four hourly charts move where we estimate price could be retracing to.

Grey:
At a level of resistance on the 4 Hour moves or OTE fibbs the grey box will occur. It won’t be easy to spot as it could just be another blue box type move upwards but after price breaks down wards out of the consolidation on the hourly charts price structure then we would assume that was the grey area. The turning point for price to start heading downwards.

Green:
The red boxes are areas where price is moving down towards the four hour price structures extension targets. It’s at these hourly structure retracements that we look to enter going short. When the four hour structure has broken downwards again and price is extended then we can begin looking for our targets from the red boxes to be met and for price to react on a long term support level creating the next green box region of price action. Then the cycle repeats.

When talking about entries we are using the same sort of profiles to enter. Looking for entry at the grey or red boxes on the five minute chart using the hourly in the place of four hourly structure on the above example. Its also worth noting that the red boxes are all before the next structure break. They are in before the previous green bottom is taken out.

This is all my interpretation of what has been taught in terms of price action. This is something I am always following no matter what bonds or divergences are saying. This is a fundamental rule for me as it’s the closest thing I have to a confirmation on the charts of my technical analysis being correct.

Also if you do the work yourself in terms of “time of day” you will be able to find a good time to exit your trades rather than aiming for possible targets based on fibbs or S&R. The OTE is a nice tool to enter a trade with in terms of risk:reward but don’t get to attached to fibbs and golden ratios.

Interesting public lecture on the Fibonacci Sequence and the Golden Ratio: 2. The Golden Ratio & Fibonacci Numbers: Fact versus Fiction - YouTube

Anyway I put in a lot of time in this thread and tried to help people when I thought I knew the answer, I also asked for guidance when confused. I never made money with the tools or approaches with any consistency but please do not interpret my change of opinion of ICT and his material to be related to my own trading. It’s based on other observations and experiences over the past couple weeks. I spoke highly of him for the many many months I was loosing trading his methods so hopefully that will serve as reassurance that my change of opinion is not due to frustrations or emotions linked to trades.

[Toekan]

Who agrees that the moderators should open the challnge thread again? They closed it after a huge earthquack related to that challenge and people want to discuss that. That thread would be the place to discuss. As it was already given up by the moderators (as they closed it), it wouldn’t hurt to open it to absorb what people want to discuss about this earthquack. Now the discussions only spread out to other threads…

Please open: 301 Moved Permanently

[mastergunner99]

Who agrees that the moderators should open the challnge thread again? They closed it after a huge earthquack related to that challenge and people want to discuss that. That thread would be the place to discuss. As it was already given up by the moderators (as they closed it), it wouldn’t hurt to open it to absorb what people want to discuss about this earthquack. Now the discussions only spread out to other threads…

Please open: http://forums.babypips.com/trade-journals/50295-inner-circle-traders-5k-1mil-live-trading-tracking-thread.html

It’s best to keep it closed. There are two many people that fail to know how to debate and instead turn it into an ad hominem sling fest.

[IyaJenkei]

I propose a 3rd solution. Let’s keep it closed until ICT has put on a minimum 10% gain to the account. So in $-terms that would be when the account surpasses $5,500

It seems the majority of the flaming comes from the emotions caused by seeing Michael (aka ICT… the InnerCircleTrader) taking a loss on the account.

I really wish people wouldn’t change their avatars that mixes me up lol.

[qwer123]

That is a very fair warning. I do not worry because my current mindset is grounded in the belief that my focus should remain 100% on controlling risk, and sticking to my gameplan.

i do n hope u do well as well

keep focus and propser

[Hogarste]

Awesome idea. Google Hangout?

MG, if folks tried to derail your thread, I would speak out against it. Can’t the stuff that really has nothing to do with trading be moved someplace else just to show that we all respect each other. You’re fair, can’t we agree that this is the best appropriate place to discuss price action using ICT methodology.

[jonnycab]

We should try and find a different place…

I don’t mind who posts on this thread, as long as its on topic, discussing the relevant material [questions/analysis/etc…]. A concept that is sadly lacking at the minute…

[jonnycab]

If you do the analysis, you will be rewarded for it. All the people that are serious about this will be doing theirs as well, and will be rewarded.

Absolutely. An hour plotting some simple S&R lines and some Fibs, combined with MS… Quite a bit of insight from that alone!

Whether or not it plays out is the question

Getting into this habit is crucial. As akeakamai said, it pays off without a doubt!

[Pipzilla]

Hi All,

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[mastergunner99]

MG, if folks tried to derail your thread, I would speak out against it. Can’t the stuff that really has nothing to do with trading be moved someplace else just to show that we all respect each other. You’re fair, can’t we agree that this is the best appropriate place to discuss price action using ICT methodology.

I welcome all healthy and constructive debate. If someone has a differing opinion on what I bring to the table what better place to place it then in the thread that the topic originated from.

[IbePippin]

i am seeing a fiber long, at 79 fib retrace on the large swing, reflection on the first leg down from the top and a 128 extension on the smallest swing at the right end. ought to be safe for Asia session and will be back to keep an eye on it at london open. good trading week everyone

[Richard87]

[B][U]BONDS[/U][/B]
Market structure is bullish on USA and German bonds, but Consilidating UK bonds, so I would belive that is Risk OFF

[U][B]STOCKS[/B][/U]
Market structure is bullish on DJI, SP500 and NQCOMP, equals to Bullish USDX if I remember corectly

[B][U]USDX[/U][/B]
Market Structure is bullish, and has just pushed trough major resistance, and its holding as support

[B][U]FIBER[/U][/B]
Fiber just entered Long Term OTE Short on Thursday/Friday, and has retraced ‘sharply’ afterwards, also Market Structure is Bearsish.

So since all the symbols Im tracking is showing the same picture(except for UK bonds, and Cable wich I havnt tracked for a while) I am looking for bearish signals this week… Im guessing Fiber would move up to form a second Short OTE, wich I will be waiting for… Probably around 1.3530 area.

[EDIT]
Just want to say, its amazing how the price action pulls towards the KSR-levels! all those lines where drawn 2 weeks ago, and they still hold true!

Anyway, Good Luck and Good Trading this week!

[Hogarste]

Question regarding the relationships above. Please do correct me. If the dollar index is strong, I’d expect that bond yields are down, bond prices are up and the stock marktes are in risk off - bearish.

Usually, the bond markets and the dollar are bullish when the stock markets are bearish.

[B]STOCKS
Market structure is bullish on DJI, SP500 and NQCOMP, equals to Bullish USDX if I remember corectly[/B]

It’s this statement that is confusing me, because I thought that bullish stocks means bearish USDX.

Apologies if I’m messing this up.

[B][U]BONDS[/U][/B]
Market structure is bullish on USA and German bonds, but Consilidating UK bonds, so I would belive that is Risk OFF

[U][B]STOCKS[/B][/U]
Market structure is bullish on DJI, SP500 and NQCOMP, equals to Bullish USDX if I remember corectly

[B][U]USDX[/U][/B]
Market Structure is bullish, and has just pushed trough major resistance, and its holding as support

[B][U]FIBER[/U][/B]
Fiber just entered Long Term OTE Short on Thursday/Friday, and has retraced ‘sharply’ afterwards, also Market Structure is Bearsish.

So since all the symbols Im tracking is showing the same picture(except for UK bonds, and Cable wich I havnt tracked for a while) I am looking for bearish signals this week… Im guessing Fiber would move up to form a second Short OTE, wich I will be waiting for… Probably around 1.3530 area.

[EDIT]
Just want to say, its amazing how the price action pulls towards the KSR-levels! all those lines where drawn 2 weeks ago, and they still hold true!

Anyway, Good Luck and Good Trading this week!