Inner Circle Trader's Pro Traders Club 2012 - 2013 Series

Omg, the news that came out where actually bullish for the Cable :open_mouth: :open_mouth: :open_mouth:

Thatā€™s hilarious!
Retail longs have actually increased to 90% on myfxbook hummmā€¦

Dam! Couldnā€™t resist, closed out @ 100 pips!
THANKYOU ICT! :smiley:

what is it called? averaging down? or something :stuck_out_tongue: well, it seems USDX bounced of the hudden OTE, made a regular OTE, so it might just continue;)

In the meantime Im just trailing my stops down, it feels good :wink:

Unemployment rate is increased and also Claimant count change is worse than the forecast. So, is it anyway good for the Cable ?

I understood the news is the ILO Unemployment Rate higher than expected therefore economy is not recovering as expected, so bearish for cable.

Not that Iā€™m big into fundamentals, I normally just identify news as liquidity injections now x.x

ā€œWhen unemployment rate is high, consumer spending will decrease, and that means slugglish economic growth and lesser corporate profits. This will push stock markets down and cause investors to become more risk adverse and flee to safer investments like bonds (OR USDX RIGHT???). On top of that, a contracting economy will also lead to declining interest rates, hence, boosting the bond markets instead.[3]ā€

fair buying in the euro, i wonā€™t be surprised if fiber starts rising

edit: long 3390, lets see how it goes

Hi, I was watching this event:

Claimant Count Change
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The Claimant Change released by the National Statistics presents the number of unemployment people in the UK. There is a tendency to influence the GBP volatility. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has negative implications for consumer spending which discourage economic growth. Generally, a high reading is seen as negative (or bearish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as positive (or bullish).
[Esitmated -5K, actual -12.5k

Wich came out a lot lower than expected.

I dont think any of that did anything thoā€¦ I think it was some news from the Bank Of England minutes, results on voting on a new QE or something like that at caused the move :stuck_out_tongue:

Trying to guess tops and bottoms is a fun game :slight_smile:

This is exactly why you trade what the charts tell you and not what you ā€œthinkā€ is going to happenā€¦

OK Iā€™m going to uni so here is the order iā€™m leaving set up on my practice account.

EURUSD
I drew a Fib from institutional levels 1.3500 to 1.335, OTE @ 1.3455
1h MS Bearish
USDX posed for bullish move up
US Bonds: Bearish prices meaning I.R. up so USDX should go up

EURGBP Bullish meaning EUR is getting stronger, but I believe that this has had mostly an effect on GBPUSD, since EURUSD has hardly responded (Maybe some sort of divergence?)

Short @ 1.3455

see you later :slight_smile: happy trading

Seems like the wMS2 is holding as supportā€¦ I have a SL at 5345ā€¦

Green as grass, how are you managing your trade?

[EDIT]Could we be so lucky that the support at 1.5300 breaks?

Yup, TWYS Trade What You See :smiley:

Now thereā€™s a whole lotta guys in there going long thinking & hoping for a retrace, in all reality it will probably consolidate at best, maybe even sink lower, it could retraceā€¦ who knows. Normally thereā€™s consolidation so orders can accumulate & the Smart Money can give em another bashing lol! Who knows whatā€™ll happen, itā€™s all speculation in the end.

Iā€™d like to think I was smart taking this trade but in reality there was a fair dose of luck as well, It does seem that my trading has improved noticeably this year which is encouraging.

Ah sorry was posting drivel when you put this up.
Iā€™ve been focusing on my entries mainly & thereā€™s not much structure to my trade management which is evident with my ā€œflip flopā€ decision making today. I just concluded 100 pips was good for a day & not to get too greedy as my trade was a double tapper & ideally I would like three micro lots so I can double tap & let the last portion to run & catch any bonus move.

So in short, itā€™s pretty hit & miss trade management right now.

1.5270 here we come :wink:

I cant see them not running it down that far, now that theyā€™ve come this far alreadyā€¦

thats pretty good though:) I double-tapped with 1% of my account(0.02Lots), so when the first lot got stopped out, I lett the other 0.5% run :stuck_out_tongue:

So a BIG win in pips, but not so much in $ :stuck_out_tongue:

And yeah, it was seriusly lucky, I entered on the expectation of bad news on myfxbook(as planned), but those came out really good, but it was something I didnt expect, Bank Of England who ****ed up/did a great job weakening the poundā€¦ So yeah, lucky as hell :wink: But Iā€™ll see if the wMS2 will break :wink:

For what its worth, I just expect the trade to be 50% win/loose, and then add Marketstructure on top, and an OTE/entry signal to get inn, and I ā€˜thinkā€™ I got good chances to win :slight_smile:

I get the email reports from BK Asset Management now and Boris writes about EURGBP, thought it would be interesting to share.

He comments on how the euro is playing the role of ā€œSafe Havenā€ in the eurgbp cross. Interesting thought at least.

For sure euro has passed 0.87, meaning confirmed bullish MS on EURGBP, have to be careful.

EURGBP rises on speculation of S&P downgrade

Rumors of an S&P downgrade of UK sovereign debt sent EUR/GBP soaring in Asian session trade as the cross hit a high of 8700 before finally easing. Last December the agency affirmed UKā€™s AAA status but revised the outlook to negative. The ratings agency refused to confirm speculation that the UK rating may be lowered further, but the currency markets reacted nevertheless pushing pound lower to 1.5418.

Most of the flows however were centered in EUR/GBP which gained nearly 30 points during what is typically a very quiet session. The EUR/USD also gained strongly breaking out above the 1.3400 level and hitting a high of 1.3434 before retracing a bit. In a complete turn of events the euro is now acting a ā€œsafe havenā€ part of the cross as traders become increasingly concerned about UK economic conditions with the country dipping into recessionary territory for the third time since the credit crunch of 2008.

Today the markets will get a glimpse of the UK jobless data and well the BOE minutes and both reports should provide some visibility regarding conditions on the ground. The claimant count is expected to come in at -5.3K versus -12.1K the period prior. However, an increase in UK joblessness could spur even further selling in sterling and push EUR/GBP through the 8700 as the day proceeds.

I think a day like today is a good example of why the news is useful for volatility, but not so useful in terms of which direction we should trade in.

Good news comes out, the prices drop big time. The only indication we had was staring us in the face on our GBP/USD chart. No higher highs made, massively bearish MS.

The smart money are going to drive it anywhere they like, regardless of the news, I see news items as an excuse to do this. The charts usually give you a good indication of how they are positioned. Remember, it costs them money to run prices back up before sending them down againā€¦

Congrats on the trade, and keep the stops close so you dont lose too many pips should it retraceā€¦

Oh I am, think I might bee to agressive :stuck_out_tongue: I have my stops 5pips over the second swing highā€¦ on the 1m TF :confused:

Iā€™m hopeless on Market Structure so donā€™t really use it to tell the truth. This is something Iā€™m going to have to get sorted.
But on my EUR/GBP chart Iā€™m watching price react as itā€™s in a daily bearish OTE. If price pushes past 8800 (79% OTE line) it will invalidate the OTE & then could continue onwards & upwards. This is what Iā€™m watching.

Richard

All works now. Seems that there was a conflict with an EA that was active.

I may later have a look at recoding to place two concurrent positions.

PS That %!!$%$ Fiber left without me again. Suppose we can assume that the weeks high has been set, subject to a final effort NYO

EDIT PS wonder whether they will take it up once more for the week ie around NYO

The reason for the big drop in cable wasnā€™t the better than expected employment numbers it was the BoE policy committee vote on further easing. The expectation had been for 9-0 or 8-1 vote if favour, but it came in at 6-3 which means very dovish, more QE highly likely, potential rate cuts and hence a devalued currency. Cable did exactly as youā€™d expect - dropped off a cliff!