Let me add to this.
Interest Rate Spreads:
Comparatively, US Interest Rates have fallen less than GER Interest Rates, meaning large hedge funds and carry traders will be moving their funds from the EURO into USD, thus another hint of a stronger US DOLLAR and a falling EURO.
am I looking at this the wrong way?
the way I understand, the commercials are catching up with 2012ās extreme long position.
combine that with seasonal tendencies for cable, and we could very soon see a major reversal - a possible bull month (or two)
I have obviously no clue what price is going to do, and fundamentally I dont think neither the USD, nor the GBP, nor the EUR should be going up;) but a standstill in markets would be scary;)
just got confused when I saw that youre reading the COT as a bearish signal on cableā¦ do I look at the wrong data?
now again. this week might very well go up, or down, or sidewaysā¦
cheers
Fred you should look at COT Rep on the weekly charts to gain a better perspectiveā¦
Iāve been reading up a lot too on COT Reports, remember what are the commercials? Theyāre hedgers so by being long they are not losing money, they are just hedging their bets.
Also be sure to chart open interest which goes hand in hand with COT, I would wait for a drop in OI first.
Again - IĀ“m learning too >X
IĀ“m still bearish also. UK has taken a beating these last few weeks fundamentally. >X
I donāt look at what the COT says week to week. I just look for the extreme levels they are coming from. Once they post a low or a high thatās my bias. Not while its moving up or down. It is lagging but you donāt wanna try and picks tops and bottoms anyway :-D.
Yes, this is the correct way to read this data. From my limited understanding, as the net-shorts increase price should move up. Once we hit extremes, then we get selloff. As net-longs increase (as weāre seeing with the GBP at the minute), price will move down, then we get buy back, or a reversalā¦
Look at sKratch1989ās chart @ Oct 11, massively net-long while price is bombingā¦ then we rally from 1.52 to 1.62ā¦
In trying to get a handle on reading the cot chart the one ICT video that says a lot is the ptc Jul 22, from about 12.00 mins to 16.00 mins.
If you watch that portion - shows the weekly on usdx and fibre, and then look at the weekly of the usdx and fibre since that very date - shows clearly that the comms call the shots in forex long term.
Btw, Iām sure all of you have spotted the tweezers on the daily usdx - just at ote sweet spot - bearish.
oh, also ote on fibre daily - bullish
Oh, also us 5,10y rand t-bond at resistance (daily) - bearish for usd. (theyāve all reacted red today)
Seasonal tend for usd - bearish (Moore research)
Just thought Iād mention it - but remember the no.1 golden rule - NEVER ever be influenced by anyone except yourself.
Iām going long on cable because it landed on heads
Guys and girls,
It seems that there is some talk of long term trading going on. COT, bonds, seasonals etc. ICT once pointed me towards some information that has been a real gem. I havenāt seen him using it himself, but check out ADX (7) at or above 60 on a Weekly chart. Pull it up and see if you can fit it with the other pieces of the puzzle. āIndicators alone will trip you up, but used in the right wayā¦ you know the story!ā
Cheers
I just opened a Sell order for cable at 1.51, so lets see if it makes it back up 
basically based on Daily/4H MS, that would be a Short OTE from last thursday high to yesterdays low, and a smaller(20pip) OTE Short in todays high(LO Killzone), also obvoius the 1.51 big number
I take it you mean 1.52?
Long on the Fiber from 1.3030, first TP was 1.3060, holding out for the big figure now that weāve gone through 1.3060 quite nicely.
Strong numbers coming out of Europe so far. Key data @ 10:00 GMT, if weāre up near that 1.31 level, Iāll probably consider a short depending on the numbersā¦
Hehe, no, I meant a retracement to 1.51, and Im now short the cable 
lets see how this turns out 
Nice trade on the Fiber btw! Good luck
News @ 09:30 should help if its bad
Hehe, Yeah, I know, lets hope so:P Sorry all you english guys/girls 
[EDIT]
Good news for the cable, Great britain has expanded its economy 
(Better than expected, 35pips on 1min candle still isnt out though, but looks bad nowā¦)
[EDIT2]
Okay, Im out, goog work Jonnycab, the Fiber was the way to go
damn jonnycab you are hauling pips like crazy the past few weeks;) congratulations mate!
I am still waiting for the āclicking noise inside my headā when I will finally start using my analysis (which is mostly not too bad) and actually start converting it into actual profits;)
would you be willing to share some results (%) for this year to date? just curious - and would be very motivating to see!
cheers
Have a look at my post here from a few weeks back: 301 Moved Permanently
Current balance:
Iāve also started cutting risk as well. I normally risked 2% on most trades. Iāve cut that back over the last month or so to 1% [because Iāve been trading more frequently], or less (depending on the day and time of day). The account grows slower, but it allows me to enter the trades and test my ideas (good confidence builder).
I ended up going short at 1.3072 for fibre - Took my 20 pips, saw the news and closed the rest off.
GAHH Do not pull trigger not NYOKZ !!! AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
Does anyone else struggle with this? Do you force yourself to wait or do you take trades outside of killzones?
X_X
oh wow, you are actually just about to double your initial account! thats fantastic!
āconfidence builderā is also something I need! Ive been trading 0.5% for most of the time since going live.
but I am stuck! my account is constantly ranging between +3 to +10%ā¦ sure Im happy its never been in the redā¦ and I am well aware of being a newbie;) but I do realize that I need to start accumulating profits at some point to grow the account as planned.
currently thinking about opening a sub account on oanda, to try a long term trading strategy Im working onā¦ then at the same time continuing my hustle here at day trading;) just to see at the end of the year which one performed better - and to maybe realize which style is suiting me bestā¦
long way to go;)
I currently have 3 limit sell orders waiting to be triggered. All with tiny positionsā¦
at: 1.3098 and 1.3120 on fiber
and at 1.5220 on cable
I do expect a down week, and to see the high of the week soonā¦
however, I am expecting the āmarch bottomā to be put in soon, and Iāll keep my eyes open for a major reversal within the next few weeks. commercials just dont seem to be quite there yetā¦but maybe soon.
lets see if I can finally break my plateau/range of p/l
cheers and I am always excited to see you performing so well buddy!
My problem is probably under trading, I have opened 6 trades since 10. january I am so afraid of my capital that I wont open any trades except for in killzones
Then again, Wins makes me estatic, and I fear loosing, but taking a loss is not a problem(yeah, I feel weird)
[EDIT] Slitly in appropiateā¦
