Yes, this is the exact trade I took this morning, good for 30 pips or so. I did acknowledge the bond/USDX divergence last night, but thought this would be a reasonable setup regardless (was hoping for a possible deeper retracement into NYO). We got that regardless during the ECB press conference when price hammered down into 1.30 and beyond…
estimates are for 167k slightly higher than previous num ,if the wisper num is for a weaker num shouldnt that weaken the dollar futher ? or am i missing something?
Yes it would weaken the dollar further. Several funds/large traders are hedging against the USD for tomorrow, fuelling a rumour that the NFP may disappoint.
Keyword is rumour 
the opposing view is this spike up today is to setup shorts.
Given the trading landscape now, I would urge caution whichever way you feel.
For clarity… If the actual number is lower, that would weaken the USD.
More people unemployed than expected = bad.
Hi sKratch, I was slightly bored, so I ripped the data you want from
TED Spread London Interbank Offered Rate LIBOR Timing Chart
ted spread - Pastebin.com
You will have to change the date(wich is seconds from 1.1. 1970)
the first date is 30. April 1977(wich means turns into 231206400sec form 1.1.1970, the next one is 31. may 1977, etc
Good luck 
which video deals with trade management?
The big why/how -
I am a why/how person, someone tells me such and such works and immediately my brain goes into how mode.
I’ve analysed all the ICT concepts, many of which I’ve encountered before, and understood the how with them.
Some basic concepts I’ve thought about more - for example s/r - why?, the standard answer is … (look at 2962 on fibre)but WHY/HOW does it work.
The real biggie - why does price retrace after a sharp move - example is Feb 25, half retrace within 3 days, this is common and expected - ‘do’nt chase, wait for the pull back’ - WHY does it work?.
I have my own theories, well not actually mine, the theory of a former floor trader, but I would love to hear you guy’s theories.
I’m very much the same way.
I think I undestand the why/how of the LC daily retracement and on a similar and larger scale the Friday pullback move. Your question relates to why after a few days of a trend move is there a retracement. That’s trickier, but I would guess it’s a combination of the Commercials engineering a retracement (for better prices for them) before they continue their moves per the Market Maker Buy/Sells we learned, folks who’ve held positions for a while tend to cash out trades that looked like losses when they return to BE; in your question I would think that there are some folks buying out of shorts they got in to at the begining of the year, and also general profit taking.
What are your thoughts.
The real biggie - why does price retrace after a sharp move
Order liquidation.
What is price?
Price is the sum total of all orders of every participating trader.
Every participating trader is involved in participation management.
Participation management involves getting in and out of the market.
Getting in and out of the market is order liquidation.
- example is Feb 25, half retrace within 3 days, this is common and expected - ‘do’nt chase, wait for the pull back’ - WHY does it work?.
It works because of forced order liquidation.
Participation management of positions under pressure has expired.
A classic example was Feb 25, wiping out 6,2% of combined asset value in Europe in one NY session with 1,6% in the space of six minutes because of forced order liquidation based on fear. That’s what you get when fear drives order liquidation.
I think your answer sounds much better than mine, but it leads me to another question. Unless I’m misunderstanding you, you’re saying that order liquidation and fear drive pullbacks. Why are these pullbacks frequently (I think we can all agree about that) so predictable from a Fibonacci persepctive?
Unless I’m misunderstanding you, you’re saying that order liquidation and fear drive pullbacks.
What is order liquidation?
Getting in or geting out is order liquidation.
That leads to the next question?
Who is under pressure and forced to liquidate in getting in or in getting out?
The looser is.
Why are these pullbacks frequently (I think we can all agree about that) so predictable
You can’t predict anything and you can’t expect anything. Which is why whenever you commit money to the market you ensure you cover your a** in the event of things not going to plan. Otherwise you become a frequent member of the looser group.
from a Fibonacci persepctive?
A Fibonacci perspective is foreign to me. I don’t use Fibonacci.
Fibonacci doesn’t answer these questions:
Who is loosing?
Who is winning?
Why?
Where is the looser?
Do you really want to know the answer, or do you prefer it to remain mystical and mysterious?
I have respect for S/D trading, though I think most folks on the thread prefer to discuss ICT’s methods. If you don’t take the time to understand Fibonacci retracements and extensions, you’re really only limiting yourself - I’m sure you understand them better then you’re letting on. Like it or not this is not a totally free market. Price is frequently controlled by the Commercials, and they clearly use Fibs to do that. So why would you not want to know as much as you could, to be able to anticipate price moves before they occur.
Sorry if it seemed that I was being mysterious, I use mostly ICT methods, but I respect S/D zone traders. I’m happy to debate, because I stand to learn something. However, after a point I won’t debate it here, because I have considerable respect for the ICT ‘A’ students, who want to discuss ICT methods here rather the debate them.
Hmm, no Hogarste, that’s not what I meant. I meant did you really want to know the answer: It is quite dull, related to human psychology and decision making. I term it the human condition, but if you want to start reading around it, search for information about Socionomics and/or human social behaviour.
In 1955, George Kelly conducted experiments in which it was shown people do not have equally weighted positive and negative outlooks as one would expect, but rather it is weighted about 62% positive and 38% negative, fitting with the fibonacci ratio. You could argue that this is one of the reasons why traders seem to behave in a way that often creates certain patterns on price graphs, where upswings and downswings in price match the fibonacci ratio, or some closely related derivatives of the ratio.
Robert Prechter also did a lot of study around this, centered on Ralph Nelson Elliott and the Elliott wave principle. Bed time reading I guess!
Final thought for the day: If the NFP beats or is in line with expectations, this may spur more appetite for risk (further upside on the Euro/GBP).
But, the divergence between the US and the Eurozone may be too apparent to sustain it, epsecially as Draghi just offered words of hope today and no new fiscal/monetary policies.
I read this whole book: Elliott Wave Principle: Key To Market Behavior because of a professor’s recommendation.
It was extremely boring for the first bit but then it got interesting, and convincing. His basic premise is that bad things happen when people’s mood swings at its highest, and good things happen when people’s mood is low, and there is a constant rotation. (Interesting huh?) This affects, obviously, the stock market because the stock market is based on psychology of people.
One of his most famous socioanalysis is that of the length of the hems of women’s skirts, how during the fall of the stock market, skirts become longer, and as sit goes up skirts get shorter throughout history, basically society’s mood moves together at a 62-38% difference.
He did another analysis with music, how we go from happy music to rock music etc as society’s mood swings to and fro. check it out:
BACK TO DIVERGENCE. What do you think about this?
Looks like we got 2 cracks but not confirmed on the downside for either. What does this mean (I need your help here)
I think that we need to wait for confirmation from one of them on the downside. If not, it may be just a market makers’ move.
Another thought: The EURUSD is showing a bearish cypher pattern which ICT doesn’t teach but check it out Can you see it? (JASON STAPLETON DETECTS THESE CYPHERS THROUGHOUT THE MARKET AND I HAVE SEEN QUITE A FEW)
Conclusion: wait for NFP report aahahahahah.
xx
@Minotaur That´s interesting about the order liquidation, I also am studying carry trades, etc. Obviously this thread is mostly based on ICT tools and concepts especially intraday analysis,
BUT - if you ever feel up to it you should start a thread on that… I´m sure you have a lot we could learn from 
Higher highs USDX, higher lows Fiber, are we gonna rally up on the Fiber @ 13:30?
Possible upside 1.3210…
Sitting this one out eitherway
Back to the infamous fib, Wed’s high to low - an ‘engineered’ range - I left it on, as I mentioned testerday it’s ote retracement was respected to the pip - worth a 30 pip scalp as per Jonny.
See what happened this morning - the 1.62 extn of that fib - means of profit measurement - was respected within 2 pips - seems a few traders use this fibby thing.