Yes indeed, not bad for 25 pips at the end of the day 
Next week should be interestingā¦
I definately donāt mean scalping to be 25 pips. What I meant by scalping is the traditional view of clawing back the 5-10 pips that Iād lost to my fade trade earlier today. Ok ok, I got a little excited and scalped a bit more out, but thatās not my point:
Itās ok to scalp and itās fine to consider 25 pips as a scalp. I just think we should avoid it in the thread, it wonāt help anyone and trying to do so will probably put them in a worse position than if theyād just left the market alone once a trade went bad.
I suppose I put it out there because Iād seen price had hit a short-term profit fib level and there are means and ways to recover your loss if youāre quick, smart and agile. Itās taken me AGES to get to that stage.
Yes, totally agree, but I do like to include some proof as to why AND whether I did actually take such a trade (railroad tracks, 1H TF etcā¦) and the merits such a trade have to Price Action. I think I will stop posting all of my trades, some may find it useful (entry levels, SL placement, etcā¦), but I guess most dont care and would rather discuss PA in general.
That 1.3060 is generating some lovely support at present
I still anticpate a bounce off/break 1.3030/20. Whether this comes tonight or Monday is another thing entirely. I base this on: Price should re-test the falling wedge itās broken out of on the 4hr.
But, what do I know.
Have a nice weekend everyone. I hope that my contribution to this thread has been beneficial, opens your eyes a little and in some way assisted you this week.
It is obvious that I call a spade a spade and in doing so I might rub one or two the wrong way. I apologise for thatā¦ you spades. :29:
I have been testing this divergence for about a year now, initially on a demo to get a feel for it, and from this month on a live.
In all my testing I have found two ways to use the bonds that suit me best (I am happiest with the US 10yr).
The first way has been on major market moves on the fibre at news times - usually US news - where we get a significant and determined divergence (like past nfp).
Often the bonds are ārightā and the fibre will correct, usually from a big fig, a s/r or a stop run, and usually a couple of days later (this past Tuesday). This div is often good for 50-60 pips (Bonds may come to āmeetā the price and get back in sync)
The other way I am using the us 10yr is like today - again as a leading indicator, but really short term- when price had rose to the 3100 and the question was would it continue up to 3120-30 or would it turn, there seemed to be a bull/bear battle on.
I saw the 10yr jump when price was at 3080, after having been at 3100 - but price was not reacting - as soon as I saw that I figured that was it - the bulls would run out of steam - I posted ābearishā deliberately (something I doānt like doing) so that I could show my new bias in real time (I had read your post this morning).
The 10yr gave me my short term bias, price did come down, then back up ote for a short entry.
This āshort termā action seems to be good for 15 -20 pips (having said that I only took 10 pips today since itās Friday)
This is a work in progress so Iāll post back in about 12 months with the results.
I only day trade, threfore I haveānt gone into the longer term implications of bond use - but I intend to.
Thanks for the explanation Peterma, I had been meaning to ask you for your insights, and lo and behold, there it is.
Thrax, I suspect you are not unlike me, my psyche forces me to question everything, someone tells me this works or that works and I have to know why.
Itās the same with the āmarketā, I have to know why, itās no good someone telling me itās to do with orders, or flow, or stops, or momentum, or s/r, or risk, or this is the way it always has been - doānt let them tell me itās supply and demand - I live and breathe that particular equation every day - itās not that, itās something else.
So what is it?
Others say greed and fear, have knowledge of those two and itās not that, itās too controlled, with greed and fear there is no control, so where lies the control.
āThe Commercialsā shout the cot students, āThe banksā shout the forex retailers, āThe market makersā shout the brokers.
In all of this I have come to a conclusion - who leads?, who dictates?, who is the cause of price movement?, who is the boss?.
This boss is not a traderā¦ far from it ā¦he no longer knows fear and greed, he has made his money ā¦ get into his mind, see what he is thinking, how is he reactingā¦ who is he?
An investor.
Thanks Peterma. I agree with your character assessment. If I was going to size you up, I know you are further down the track than I am. Thatās fine, I look up to you for that. Alishjo and johnnycab also fall into this category. There are others, such as Clint, but they are too busy to contribute to this thread for now. Then there are the ones that have faded away, I hope they are ok.
To quote someone else, we are introverts, highly analytical and there is the attraction of Forex. It is one of the most tangled puzzles and we are naturally drawn to try and conquer it. It pleases me immensely that you have realised in order to understand the market, we also need to understand the psychology and behaviours of the market participants. But thereās a lot more to it than just that.
I am now in the process of growing my skillset, to complement everything Iāve learnt up till now, perhaps even discard it entirely for something new. As you know, I have found that rabbit hole. You are more than welcome to follow me down it, but there is an admission charge. For me that is meaningless if it means years of profitable trading, but for you and others it may be a cost too high to bear. Poppy**** I say, use some of your profits you earnt this week. Perhaps you already have good knowledge, in which case I will come knocking on your door over the coming months to toss ideas around.
Yes, it is cryptic, and with good reason. I have too much respect for everything that has been put into this thread and I will not de-rail it. I earnt near 25% of my balance these last 3 weeks following parts of ICT methods and there lies the proof of the pudding. But for me, itās not enough, too many rookie mistakes and too little understanding of what is going on behind the curtain. But boy oh boy, now Iāve sneeked a peak behind one of the curtains, I intend to rip it down.
So, why mention any of this, why not doff my cap and smile sweetly with a curtsy and move on? Because I want to help and give back to those that have helped me. I want friends, a trading group to discuss ideas and grow with, in real-time. Iāve posted heavily into the thread the last couple of weeks, but not as a swansong, more I suppose as a diary and acid test of my approach. Not much critique given, in fact, mostly baseless pooh-poohing from the sidelines. Well, good for them I say, I am glad they are comfortable to express disdain to an older, wiser voice.
At this point, Iāll draw a line under this post and ask for you or anyone else to simply PM me if you wish it to continue. Letās keep it ICT here.
Oh, before I forget, that investor, who is he you ask? Heās not a he or she, they are a collective, and they are known as Sovereign Entities.
Two thumbs up.
Hi! Thanks for that:) To be honest, I havent found any differences when trading demo or live, the only thing was that when I traded demo, I didnt manage to be disiplined enough to get up in the morning to trade LO. So I decided to open the smallest live acount I could, and that have helped alot Even if i dont open any trades a week, I still learn a lot by watching the price live in LO wich I never did on demo.
So the biggest change for me was āaccountabilityā, with real money on the line, I am more disiplined
btw, I just need to whine a little:/ My bank charged me a rate of 8.79 for the transaction I posted earlier, thats 400(!!!) pips over the high of the day.
And I paid commision, I guess Ill do a lot more research about the bank next time im making a transaction(AND when Im going to fund my account the next timeā¦)
[EDIT] Thats PIPs, not Pippetes, I double checked 
Peterma, Thrax, Jonnycab, Richard, et alā¦I am wondering what reading resources you found most helpful and influential in your forex/trading journey? Although I have made a good amount of progress in the last year with ictās videos and trading with a very small live account, I find I am still floundering quite a bit. Through your posts I can see that you are miles ahead of me in your learning but the question is also directed at any that would like to weigh in. I find one of my most precious and scarce commodities these days is time, so Iām hoping your collective experience will help me place my efforts where they will be most beneficial. Thanks in advance and thanks also for all your previous posts. Itās hugely helpful seeing your thought processes behind your bias development and trade setups.
Itās a difficult question to answer, not because there isnāt an answer, but because the answer depends on where you are with your knowledge/confidence/approach, what youāre interested in, then identifying any gaps and pointing you to appropriate books/white papers.
But, Iāll give you some of the ones that stick out in my mind that Iāve read, in chronological order, oldest first, with comments.
Anything by Hector DeVille: Excellent technical grounding and introduction to trading profitably.
Jared F. Martinez: 10 Essentials of Forex Trading: Another strong introduction.
Babypips School: End to end knowledge and I still reference parts of from time to time, because I have a poor memory.
Basket Trading by Trader101: At first I thought this was going to help, but I had limited results and binned it. There are some successful basket traders, but itās just not for me. I canāt recommend it, but still important lessons learnt about how currencies interact and how to view the market as a whole entity.
ICT: Mike really opened my eyes up and took, I donāt know, 5 years off my education timeline. Wow. Thank-you!
Books:
Larry Williams - Trade Stocks And Commodities with the Insiders - Secrets of the COT Report.
John Murphy - Intermarket Technical Analysis.
Linda Raschke - Street Smarts. High Probability Short Term Trading Strategies.
Research papers:
Cory Mitchell, CMT - Forex Seasonal Patterns.
Dr. Melvin Pasternak - 21 Candlesticks Every Trader Should Know.
There are endless topics and everyone will recommend different books, but the above is a strong list to get started on. In doing so, you will touch on the other areas and if youāre inquistive, be able to pick and choose what next interests you. Try and approach learning to trade like studying for a PhD and youāll be fine.
Leecote, Thrax sums it up well.
When I started out on my own learning curve I bought many useless books, stick with his advice and youāll not end up doing what I did - having a book binning excerise, the only good thing was I used a recycle bin.
The ICT videos are an unrivalled educational tool, some say boring, that particular descripition was a heads up for me, some of the most brilliant teachers that Iāve learned from in my life were decribed thus.
I learned html from probably the most boring book on earth, I learned dbase in the mid 80ās - I can still feel the boredom.
None of us are further ahead, we are all on this learning curve together - I know no more than you, I just keep learning and sharing, by sharing I learn - thatās what is good about this thread.
All good advice above ^^
Just something else, Iāll add.
The theory side of things is great, without it you wont get far. The practice is equally important. Whats the use of all the theory if you cant use it effectively?
I know a lot of guys who have impressive knowledge in the theory of how things work (I work with them daily), but when it comes to actually implementing said ideas in the real world, big difference, and many of their theoretical techniques are unusable in a real world scenario (especially when it comes to a usable product). You can only obtain this knowledge from experience.
I find that I learn best by doing. Get some (simple) ideas gathered together into a trading plan and get stuck in (minimize risk until youāre happy you have consistency). Mark up your key levels on the charts on Sunday night, check out Market Structure, etcā¦ While youāre waiting for your plan to unfold (yep - loads of waiting around in this game), do a bit more reading on a topic youāre interested in, or in something entirely new that you think might suit your style of trading.
This will give you an idea of how your analysis is going an where you need to improve on. If youāre miles out on what you think, you can start working there, and fine tune it. Equally, if youāre getting into trades that are going against you, read up on why, keep analysing and learning why and youāll start to see the schoolboy errors disappear over time, especially when you start to learn patience :). As with anything, if you stop learning, something is wrong. This goes for absolutely anything, I have a very good friend who is a wizard with anything car/motor mechanic related. The things he still learns now and then uses in the development of his own vehicles (track cars etcā¦) is never endingā¦ Its game over if you cant keep adapting, so keep at it! (exactly why forums are great for discussing new ideas and techniques for an ever evolving liquid market!)
Iāll post up some analysis on my trade from Friday, some of the reasons behind it etcā¦
Iām extremely disappointed with the decisions thus far in Cyprus and canāt help but be a Euro bear into next week.
We will see though, there is still time before the markets open.
Feeling the same about the GBP. Chalking up for a pro-dollar week.
Yeah, great unease in Europe - the EU bank guarantee seems to be null and void even though this is being dressed as a ālevyā or tax.
The question in many minds is where next?, could the same happen in Italy etc.
The markets dislike uncertainity so could be an interesting open.
BTW happy Saint Patrickās day to everyone.
Hey Jonny,
Your comments reminded me of this quote from Yogi Berra:
āIn theory, there is no difference between theory and practice.
In practice, there is.ā
Sorry. Iāll go back to lurking now.
Iād be tempted to avoid the cable like the plague this week because of the budget on Wednesday