I could just wire you my long.
I saw the headlines of the Cyprus bailout earlier but havenāt had a chance to read about it until now. I think you are right, the EUR will be in sell mode for the first couple days, at least.
This has got to be the most ridiculous terms of a bailout ever forged. This will cause a run on the banks as soon as they open. If depositors get stuck with the tax, nobody will deposit their money in the banks in the future because they will have zero trust toward them. My guess, if they continue with these terms, trust in the banking sector will dry up, causing mass withdrawals, which will in turn cause bank failures, which will further erode the economy, and around and around the drain their economy goes. As you said Cyprus is just a small part of the European economy, but this could have far reaching effects for future bailouts. Citizens of other countries could become wary of the banking sector as well. If depositors could be taxed in Cyprus, couldnāt depositors be taxed the same way in other countries to help pay for their bailouts as well?
Arenāt there any intelligent politicians left in the world?
After the market opened, I was thinking the 1.30- 1.3030 levels would come back into play this week, but Iām not so sure the gap is going to close this week
Yes. For the man on the street.
Which nations do you have in mind that will require a bailout? Most of the heavy lifting has been done in Europe and the foundations laid for future growth. Granted, one or two might stumble but the IMF still has a lot of firepower remaining and if they decide to, they can use it. And it would be spectactular.
If there arenāt any required over the next so many years, maybe some legal thinkers get together and stop this from happening again.
Yes. This is key. Sentiment. Pull it out the Jenga and the whole lot will wobble with scary consequences.
Yes, itās a frightening admission and precedence. But, compared to the deal that the Americans and British got, this one is not as bad. We got nothing. They are getting shares in the bank to the value of the haircut to their savings. So itās a change of asset. They wonāt see it as this right this second, but it will be explained to them that if they hold onto it, like they were going to anyway because this is their savings, it should be worth more in the future of the cash it just consumed. Providing Europe grows.
Granted they didnāt ask to buy shares, but in effect this is what is happening. Now, if the foundations for a prosperous Europe is put in place, they donāt have anything to worry about, right? Yeah right. :28:
The more Iāve been reading and thinking about it, itās a sly move to save a few quid, by rattling the smallest of bones in the EU. Yes it is nasty, but sometimes business is like that. I know Iāve been the sore end of it on a personal level and itās why Iām now a hopeful trader.
Ok. But how much further down will it realistically go over the next few weeks? Maybe we have another leg down. Maybe not.
Iām now super conscious that Iām de-railing this thread from itās traditional use. Sorry. Iāll post some ICT style charts at some point to bring it back on point once the party is over. Iām a big gossip and this is just too interesting for me not to talk about and Iāve got nowhere else to go right now. 
How do you do multiple quotes like in your last reply?
I donāt have any nations in mind for the next bailout. Iām just thinking it may happen again. who knows, maybe France is up next.
As far as your reply to my snide comments about politicians, yes, Iāve been thinking about this one too. If they keep the tax to account balances over $100K Euros, as I read in an article, then they have taxed the wealthy without the struggle of passing a higher tax rate. This could become a popular move because the poor always think the rich should pay their fair share, even if they already do. They are getting something in return for it, but right now those shares of stock would not look very tempting to me and are much riskier than cash in hand. Weāll have to wait and see how they structure the tax, loan, or whatever they want to call it
I hope the gap closes, because I have a spot picked out where I want to sell at. Shorting where price is right now seems like a high risk proposition. I know gaps have not closed in the past, but I have not studied them enough to feel good about a trade here. How much further can this drop? I think if price can break 1.2870, the next area of interest will be 1.2650.
[B][/B]
Which nations do you have in mind that will require a bailout? Most of the heavy lifting has been done in Europe and the foundations laid for future growth. Granted, one or two might stumble but the IMF still has a lot of firepower remaining and if they decide to, they can use it. And it would be spectactular.
If there arenāt any required over the next so many years, maybe some legal thinkers get together and stop this from happening again.
Yes. This is key. Sentiment. Pull it out the Jenga and the whole lot will wobble with scary consequences.
Yes, itās a frightening admission and precedence. But, compared to the deal that the Americans and British got, this one is not as bad. We got nothing. They are getting shares in the bank to the value of the haircut to their savings. So itās a change of asset. They wonāt see it as this right this second, but it will be explained to them that if they hold onto it, like they were going to anyway because this is their savings, it should be worth more in the future of the cash it just consumed. Providing Europe grows.
Granted they didnāt ask to buy shares, but in effect this is what is happening. Now, if the foundations for a prosperous Europe is put in place, they donāt have anything to worry about, right? Yeah right. :28:
The more Iāve been reading and thinking about it, itās a sly move to save a few quid, by rattling the smallest of bones in the EU. Yes it is nasty, but sometimes business is like that. I know Iāve been the sore end of it on a personal level and itās why Iām now a hopeful trader.
Ok. But how much further down will it realistically go over the next few weeks? Maybe we have another leg down. Maybe not.[/QUOTE]
Peterma, I meant to sayā¦Iāve seen your beloved Mourne mountains. I have relatives who live in Skerries, North County Dublin and have seen them across the water many many times. They have a saying that if you canāt see the mountains of Mourne because of the bad weather, then there should be good weather comingā¦or is it the other way round? Lol, it sounds like my forex tradingā¦I have an unclear view of the conditions giving me an uncertain picture of what the future holds! Aah well, just have to keep at it. Good luck this week everyone.
āArenāt there any āintelligent politiciansā left in the worldā
Intelligent politicians?: Two words that donāt really sound right together. Kind of like Jumbo Shrimp.
Re-paste the beginning and end [QUOTE] tags around the relevant text.
should we expect EURCHF going toward the floor again?
Or pretty ugly
Went long at 1.2885 for eurusd, bagged 50% @ 20 pips, leaving rest at BE.
Update: Closed a further 50% at 1.29250ā¦ that move up from the OTE long @ 1.2882 saw little to no retracementā¦ kinda makes me think maybe this is purely just to hit a potential string of SLās @ above AR High.
I still have 25% remaining open. very happy with todayās trades!!
exited my short earlier - could go either way this morning
Iām out the market too now. Pretty much done now until tape writes some structure into higher timeframes after this Sunday gap. I enjoyed the Asia session though.
I am starting to think an ECN account is the way to go.
Nice job, long @ 1.2890 here during that spike down @ 07:00, lets see how we goā¦ (Iād like to see 1.2940+)
Nice! Hmm yes I wonder how far this will go up. I feel like the gap wants to be filled asap before it continues its move down.
Yes, Iām resisting the strong desire to short. Itāll get real choppy out there and I donāt want to lose the work I put into the Asia sesson.
Im watching 1.2980, 1.3020 and 1.3060 for some profit takingā¦ Stay flexible!
EDIT: TP @ 1.2940 so farā¦
1.2950 might put up a weak defence. Depends how desperate the bears are.
Nice. I think Minotaur deserves a little credit here:
Thanks for the heads up on the orders. Very much appreciated. I hope we can become better acquainted.
It might just be shorts covering, giving this upward spike. Eyeballing for structure to provide a short at some point. Big gap though.
I like big gaps and I cannot lie.