Jonnycab and Rod - if you happen to be on the thread - missing your input - remember we are stronger together.
BTW my earlier post ref the aud/usd, I see the commercials are with me on this one, cot index reading of 95%
GBP of 100% and euro of 60% , however the interesting part is the weekly change - the comms are shifting long and retail going short, the cot charts on aud and euro are very alike
Hi Pete
Iâve been focused on some other issues over the past few weeks, in addition to the non-productive, puerile egocentric troll posts getting on my nerves.
Whilst away Iâve been looking at some material ( Daily Forex Trading Commentary | Forex Market Analysis | Learn Forex ) which is very complementary to (subset) ICT methodologty. Basically its a based upon MM H1 Profile, M15 entries on perceived stop hunts, in specific time zones, eg LOKZ, which is very close to what I currently do.
I have not become a member, so cannot comment on whether or not that is worthwhile, although there are lots of free videos available. All simple, solid, , without fluff, material. Worth least least a quick look, especially for beginner traders.
Yes Rod, know what you mean about the troll posts, think Iâll give it a rest for a while.
Btw, looked at the site, seems good, bit like forexlive in their logo, have book marked it for a good check out.
Take care, and dare I say it - good luck and good trading 
So funny you mention that site Rod I was just looking at it the other day! Sterling talks about a 3 wave pattern, lets say we see a move up greater than 90 pips⌠apparently we can see 2 more of these moves up before a downside, any sign of weakness is considered the âstop huntâ or âJudas swingâ before the next swing, very ICT. Its all very interesting and definitely something iâll be looking into.
So month end I did 9% for May, down a little this week but took a 60 pip move down today on the euro from 1.303 to 1.2977 (which stands at OTE sweet spot), hence closed it there so made a whopping 2.7% gain just today.
Some things Ăâve noticed while trading live:
- Pips donât mean sh1t⌠If you have bad MM you can make all the pips in the world and brag about it, you can still be at a loss.
- I feel terrible when I lose money. I feel OK when I win⌠that is, I am more concerned about my losses than any euphoria I feel during a gain.
- Pay very close attention to price moves and the news. ICT talks about how during a major news event price will reach a technical setup - This is done to lure traders in for liquidity ready for a big push. You just have to be in the right direction. It happens so often.
- Trading is hard and being profitable and making money is even harder so all the best.
I just this week started looking at that thread as well, and thought the same thing. I have not joined, but am enjoying the free videos and articles.
hello everyone. it has been a while, but yesterday i decided i should code again. i wanted to test some hypothesis and get some general market stats. for that i used h1 OHLC data from 2006 to present, downloaded from oanda mt4. thought i would share something i found.
- it was much more work than i would have thought, iâm a little rusty
(also the data was not totally clean and i needed to fix that first) - i just share the âbestâ findings imo, although i still leave it to you if/how you could use that.
for my analysis i defined the asian range, london range and new york range as the hour candles 20-0, 1-6, and 7-12 respectively. (time is from oanda, think itâs new york time) also note that i did not adjust for daylight savings time and all that crap, asian open is ALWAYS at 20. (might be interesting to see if the results get better if you adjust, but that is too much work for me right now).
so, what i found is that
[B]1. there is only a 40% chance, that the london session takes out both, the AR high AND the AR low.[/B]
that is a little surprising to me. looks like the âjudas swingâ (before leaving the asian range to the other side) is not happening quite as often as i thought. i had a time where i was thinking that aiming for the âotherâ side of the asian range is a high probability trade.
[B]2. the new york session will be only on one side of the asian range 70% of the time[/B]
this is supporting my experiences. i used to âfightâ the days current trend way to often, aiming for the âny reversalâ trade. i was wrong a lot. this just shows me indirectly that the probability for a true reversal is waaaaaay less than i thought. i am avoiding to pick âreversalsâ for a few months now and now i have evidence to continue to do so and think that way.
thatâs already it. if something is unclear, please let me know.
good trading next week everyone.
nice work man glad to see people spending the time an effort on this
just a little but very important add on to the finding number 1.
the 40% is the mean over the whole data set. so i tried to get into a little more detail. it is safe to assume that the range of the asian session (AR high - AR low) has something to do with the probability to hit the AR high AND AR low in the london session. so i drilled into that.
how to read the figure: i devided the AR into different intervals, this is the x axis. so,
1: AR is 1-10 pips
2: AR is 11-20 pips âŚ
and so on, up to 10: AR is 91-100 pips.
the y-axis is the conditional probability that the london session will take out AR high and low given that the AR is in the respective interval. (ignore number 1 here, it had only two observations)
what you can see is, that the 40% figure is too general. (1), 2 and 3 have probabilites of at least 50%. the probability shifts to < 50% with the asian range being 30 pips and up. this supports my view. i have a trading rule to not trade against the current london session trend, if the AR is >40 pips.
I have a respectful question. Did anyone on this thread get any Green on the EUR/USD from 5/29-5/30?
The Ever Respectful, Questioning VIPER
Guys its been forever since I really focused on trading. Its time to start at it again. Keep this thread up its always interesting to see what you all are doing.
Okay so bond yields⌠This may be nothing because its not a true divergence. But the 30 yr is lagging way behind compared to those old highs.
[
]([(Screen capture tool for Windows â Postimage.org)"] free screenshot tool](http://postimage.org/) [free screenshot tool)
I think alot of ICT students went long there, why u asking?
A pretty transparent day, and possibly my last two trades of my fiscal year and I was just wondering if anyone else was able to catch any of this move.
The Ever Ready For Estero Island VIPER
Did anyone buy euro this morning at nyo? I slept through it this morningâŚugh
I thought about buying at 1.3140 area after it spiked to 1.3165. Hesitated a little and baby was gone.
hello everyone.
i discovered something awesome a few days ago. itâs called âmyfxbookâ seriously, out of boredom i started playing around with its features. before i only looked at the equity curve, weekly/monthly gains. but there are some features that are really worth noting.
-
MAE/MFE graph: this can be really helpful to determine SL and TP levels for your âtypicalâ trades. i need to further evaluate in the comming weeks as i go, because it only shows the recent 200 trades (and i take tiny positions so i can set individual TP levels. thus i have more than 10 positions for 1 single trade sometimes).
-
custom periods: say you changed your way to trade significantly (i did in march this year for example) and thus you have a âshiftâ. you can just set the start date (and possible end date if you changed your method again) accordingly. this will give you insights if your âshiftsâ helped your trading or not. (you can also see it without custom periods and just looking at your equity curve, but you get some more detailed stats such as drawdown and so on for the custom period)
-
custom pairs: this is crucial for me. iâve tried some very different methodologies and comming with it different pairs. the one thing that i respected most of the time is to trade fiber/cable only using ICT based methods (not every time unfortunately, think i did take a handful of trades on the daily TF, and as far as i can remember they were losers, so the stats should probably be even better, but cant say for sure). so i thought iâd look at my fiber/cable stats to evaluate my ICT based day trading. and wow, what an eyeopener and a real boost of confidence. i am a little better than BE this year with ALL pairs. if i just look at fiber/cable iâm up 24%! this is huge for me, maybe not for others, but for me it certainly is because it is telling me âyou can do this, you can actually do this!â. all i need is to FOCUS and trust in the skills i got using ICT methods and dont get distracted by other pairs/methodologies. but now i have the hard evidence i needed!
my goal is not to double my account every month. my goal is to gain consistant monthly return so, given a certain capital basis, i could go full time. to make it happen i need to get on average about 5% monthly, which i am pulling off. now i need to focus and keep doing what i am doing and build a capital basis, by saving money and growing the money i got. in 3 years iâm going to graduate and that is the point in time where i want to have accumulated the money needed to make a living from the monthly returns.
i set my goals, and i am going to reach them. i am determined to make this thing happen, and i am going to.
Iâd ignore rappinranger. I donât see him showing his results/consistency/etc. Personally I think that using myfxbook is a great tool for assessing your results and I use it myself as well. Just because people share an amount of information, that does not mean all of their information should be public domain. Topfroxx simply shared what was comfortable to share. Also, there is nothing wrong with 0.5% risk. It all depends on a persons entire methodology and money management. Since rappinranger only just joined, possibly they are using a new name for a person that has been around a while but blew their account on over zealous trading and boasts.
Good luck with it Topfroxx. Looks like you are more of a calm and steady trader rather than a risk taker and want to retain your account. A person who wants to trade, but not gamble.
Thanks Top for sharing, you are right - focus is the key, continual self analysis the hand that helps unlock.
Btw I suspect there are now and will be in the near future many clues as to who rr is.
thanks tassie, but you could have saved yourself that post. rappinranger is AK and trying to provoke as this is his way of trying to help others. i know what i am doing and i am comfortable doing it, so i wont take AKâs advice at this point.
@ak: i appreciate that you are trying to help. but i dont think your way is the only way, even if you think so (you now even indirectly critisize my money management which really should be highly personalized). just fyi everyone is different and some people will have to gain similar experiences as you did to become profitable, others wont. i am not sure where you gain the confidence that âyour wayâ is the absolute truth. i know you dont care, but this makes you look very ****y and i honestly hope you are not like that in real life and this is just an internet persona.
as far as i know you base all your advice on a sample size of 1, and to think that this is the absolute truth is quite foolish tbh.
TOP , interesting exercise, I will be interested to see how the system performs during the summer.
The At This Point Just Goofing Off VIPER